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Post by Clement on Aug 3, 2023 10:44:04 GMT -5
$4.84 is the may swing high, price needs to take that out. $4.75 is resistance that needs to be broken, the sanofi lows. schrts.co/HtSZKjJmMNKD volume at two hours of trade, $4.795 +0.205 (+4.47%) Bid: $4.79 x 3987 Ask: $4.80 x 1400 Volume: 1,131,369 still trucking. Can MNKD touch $5.00 today? Another 5% tomorrow should do it! |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 3, 2023 11:10:40 GMT -5
Yes, I did. That was the 2nd time. The 1st time was agreeing with whoever said the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. And I also said, they're unreliable because they're provably under-reporting reality. The reality may be better than the numbers they're showing, and their (FINRA's) paragraph you quoted urges you to believe that. You can if you want to. I don't. I also said it's like having a fox protect the chickens in the chicken coop. The point is, FINRA is unreliable, so the numbers are unreliable, but that doesn't mean you can now be comfortable and complacent. It's the exact opposite. The trading industry is provably less transparent than what they're supposed to be. Do research on the regulatory mandated trading database, the Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) that's largely useless because implementation has languished since 2016. ... It's an interesting take, but as someone who advised on certain aspects of the current implementation of CAT I would disagree (unsurprisingly  ). The early implementations were undoubtably a mess, but the current version is based entirely in AWS (where I came in) which side steps a lot of the issues they had before. Trying to implement data lakes at this scale in-house is a fool's errand so using AWS makes sense. Culturally the FINRA people definitely see themselves as watchdogs and not as apologists for the traders. IMHO the best indicator of short interest is the cost of stock loans. If the short position is material that will always be elevated and if it isn't then what you are seeing is probably noise. You should not rely on the FINRA figures because they are not really gathered for reporting purposes, they are gathered for fraud detection and as such are designed with that purpose in mind. This means that some things that look like short positions are not real short positions (bi-weekly reports aside where firms explicitly report their short positions) and services that take the raw data can easily get misleading results. The more interesting aspect is that while the numbers these services churn out may be suspect they do have value for trading, not because they are accurate but because if enough people believe them and trade on them then they influence the market (perception becomes reality). Data doesn't need to be correct to be traded! And with that I am going to give Peppy her thread back  Great to hear your insider views. 
Seriously, though, in your view is CAT going to be complied with and provide actionable data? The most recent article I found was 2022 and it was another SRO (SIFMA) making additional excuses for why compliance was a problem and acknowledged yet another delay.
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 3, 2023 11:18:47 GMT -5
Thank you aged, once again, for helping alleviate certain folks' persistent fear of droids!
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Post by dh4mizzou on Aug 3, 2023 11:19:50 GMT -5
EBU CFBE this year. Corporate profitability next year. Clement, Wondering if the better then expected number for Tyvaso DPI reported by UHTR this week impacts your prognostication for profitability above? Could we see a profit THIS year? |
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Post by Clement on Aug 3, 2023 11:39:57 GMT -5
EBU CFBE this year. Corporate profitability next year. Clement, Wondering if the better then expected number for Tyvaso DPI reported by UHTR this week impacts your prognostication for profitability above? Could we see a profit THIS year? For corporate profitability, I'm concerned about clinical trials: peds, Inhale-3, and hopefully soon clofazimine. Clinical trials are expensive. Agedhippie has commented (and I agree) that these clinical trial expenses are corporate and not in the EBU. Corporate profitability next year. Not this year. |
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Post by hellodolly on Aug 3, 2023 11:49:00 GMT -5
Mike selling before UTHR ER for tax purposes was a bone head move unless he don't think sp is not going up. I can’t believe I am doing this, but here I go anyway. A senior executive (unless they are crooks – e.g. Enron, etc.) selling restricted shares or stock options more times than not, has absolutely nothing to do with where they feel the stock is going. It has everything to do with trying to avoid looking like you are trading on inside information and not during lock out periods. I have held restricted shares and stock options as a senior executive in public and private companies. I was fortunate enough to be able to sell, not all, but some of my shares while in the employee of the stock issuer. I did it because there comes a point where two things happen. The first is you realize is would be irresponsible to your family not to sell some of your position, lock in the wealth and secure a little of your financial future. The second is the time when your holding in your company becomes 60 – 70% of your net worth and you would be a fool not to diversify. The fact is, senior executives can be terminated at any point, for almost any reason, even with a contract (it isn’t hard to find cause these days), so having most of your eggs in one basket (stock assets, salary, bonus, etc.) can be a very scary proposition, especially in today's litigious world. I don’t care how confident you are in your ability to predict your company’s future, it just makes sense to lock in gains. In this case Mike still owns well over 2 million shares which represents considerable risk and reward. Plus he will be getting additional shares – shares I do not begrudge him. I am just guessing he is fully vested in making the company’s stock price grow. We all get you think MC is not on the up-and-up, and probably think he is not a good CEO. But for God sake get off the horse you are riding, it is dead. I can't believe you did it either. I don't spend much time, if I can help it, but you did it so eloquently. |
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Post by hellodolly on Aug 3, 2023 11:55:29 GMT -5
Clement, Wondering if the better then expected number for Tyvaso DPI reported by UHTR this week impacts your prognostication for profitability above? Could we see a profit THIS year? For corporate profitability, I'm concerned about clinical trials: peds, Inhale-3, and hopefully soon clofazimine. Clinical trials are expensive. Agedhippie has commented (and I agree) that these clinical trial expenses are corporate and not in the EBU. Agreed. I do appreciate that the Clofazimine trial, as reported by MC, is a now only one and done and the actual trial is 4 weeks of therapy with an 8 week drug holiday, repeat once and done. Six months in the trial and the results will be collected and analyzed. Of course more additional time will be spent advertising, qualifying, enrolling patients as well as completing the analysis and preparing it for publication will take much longer than the trial itself. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 3, 2023 12:20:14 GMT -5
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Post by runner on Aug 3, 2023 12:55:44 GMT -5
Pep, I hope you don’t live in Los Angeles and have to go to LAX airport to pick up the family. It is one of the worst airports to get to, thru, and from. The seven most feared words in Los Angeles are “Can you pick me up from LAX?” |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 3, 2023 13:37:48 GMT -5
True. A good answer to that question is “Uber”
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Post by LongMNKD on Aug 3, 2023 13:53:29 GMT -5
Soon you will be able to take ACHR rides to and from the airport check them out!
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Post by dh4mizzou on Aug 3, 2023 14:55:32 GMT -5
I know I may be crazy but my gosh this feels like a "managed" uptick. Someone doesn't seem to want this to go up too quickly.
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Post by akemp3000 on Aug 3, 2023 15:36:05 GMT -5
Following the good UTHR quarterly report, there's reason to think this could be an organic uptick but with the volume continuing to remain close to the daily average, I agree this is likely managed. The burning question is, what comes next week; upward movement that sustains or the old rinse and repeat?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 3, 2023 15:37:39 GMT -5
Chopped 15 cents off the high for the day to end at $4.70 up .11 on 2,542,430 shares traded and missed peppy's goal of, "$4.75 is resistance that needs to be broken, the sanofi lows". Maybe tomorrow.
Speaking of tomorrow, I'll predict >45% shares sold short today as reported tomorrow by fintel.io using FINRA data. That's not a bold prediction though because the short volume ratio average since July 20th is 42.9%.
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 3, 2023 16:20:00 GMT -5
Great to hear your insider views. Seriously, though, in your view is CAT going to be complied with and provide actionable data? The most recent article I found was 2022 and it was another SRO (SIFMA) making additional excuses for why compliance was a problem and acknowledged yet another delay. ... It really depends on your timescale. Are you looking for problems today, one off issues, patterns, these all have different answers. You may have a bad actor who only exploits 10K releases in which case it could take years to get the data since it's an annual event. You might have someone who is trading a lot and that could be a lot quicker, they might hit a flagged stock and then it could be days. The data lake itself is in use today. |
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). The early implementations were undoubtably a mess, but the current version is based entirely in AWS (where I came in) which side steps a lot of the issues they had before. Trying to implement data lakes at this scale in-house is a fool's errand so using AWS makes sense. Culturally the FINRA people definitely see themselves as watchdogs and not as apologists for the traders.
