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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2023 12:00:27 GMT -5
I will take that bet and then happily dance like an organ grinder's monkey when you win. This stock continues to be an enigma to me. I, like many other very long term holders, think this will be a solid earnings report, providing positive visibility into the next couple of quarters and a solid future for MNKD, hopefully propelling the stock into a strong finish of the year. I am not saying the the company is going to provide guidance. I am saying one should be able to interpolate those future results from the call, given the production constraints of this past quarter and UTHR's very positive outlook on Tyvaso DPI. And yet people are dumping the stock, and it goes lower on the day announcing earnings. I guess some are confident enough to buy leading up to earnings, but not confident enough to hold it through earnings. Here is to hoping I will be dancing later today or early tomorrow morning! Thank goodness you clarified. For a split second I thought you had gone crazy and suggesting management would give guidance. Guidance, schmuidance. Money talks. |
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Post by castlerockchris on Aug 7, 2023 12:42:29 GMT -5
So what happened last quarter? Share price went down to close at $3.80 on May 9, the day of the call. The call was at 5:00pm. Next day it closed up 15%. What I was trying to say is every time I think the MNKD picture becomes a little more clear (e.g. Danbury capacity increased by 250% to meet demand, UTHR states on quarterly call cost of good sold is up significantly, and demand is sky high), the market doesn't share my sentiment. And yet somehow I am surprised by this! Trust me, I will be thrilled if MNKD is up 15% tomorrow and can hold it. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Aug 7, 2023 12:52:52 GMT -5
How long has it been since MC gave guidance? 2 years? 3? Maybe 4? I really can't remember.
Then, the guidance he gave did not come true, and made him look bad. Understandably, there was a lot of unpredictables at the time.
But, now, with UT driving our profit machine, he should be able to provide some numbers, and good numbers at that.
I'll keep my fingers crossed.
Meanwhile, this stock price reaction has been anemic. Not sure what gives with that.
Last (Q1) call was May 9th, at which time sp was $3.80.
It went up the next day to $4.40, and continued upward to $4.79 on May 22nd.
Then, down down to $3.91 on July 7.
And back up to $4.67 now.
The fall back into the $3-dollars was typical MNKD incomprehensibility.
I know, everyone can see all of that from a quick glance of the stock chart, but I'm just kinda looking back to get a feel for the next quarter's price reaction.
I expect a little increase tomorrow, but I am not counting on too much.
I just hope Mike takes an Adderall and a benzo, or whatever he has been taking to make him feel confident and allow his brain to keep up with his mouth so he will sound more like he has in some of his more recent talks.
Hopefully he has been continuing his public speaking lessons.
It will be very helpful if the numbers beat forecasts.
We'll find out in 3 hours.
Get your popcorn ready.
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Post by BD on Aug 7, 2023 13:13:45 GMT -5
What is it about mnkd that wall street loves to f*@k with us? Who is "us". You told "us" you sold all your shares and are no longer invested in MNKD. Maybe next time to be more believable you should say you sold a substantial portion of your shares instead of all of them. Oh geez, you're almost as bad a nit-picker as I am...  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2023 13:17:34 GMT -5
Who is "us". You told "us" you sold all your shares and are no longer invested in MNKD. Maybe next time to be more believable you should say you sold a substantial portion of your shares instead of all of them. Oh geez, you're almost as bad a nit-picker as I am... Guilty. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 7, 2023 13:57:55 GMT -5
It’s guidance simple….#JustDoIt
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2023 14:28:01 GMT -5
Show me any reliable academic study that proves guidance does squat for a share price. Guidance is great if you're profitable and kicking ass (and don't need to provide guidance). Otherwise, it's hopium and everybody knows it.
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Post by Clement on Aug 7, 2023 14:51:29 GMT -5
Do you guys really think UTHR is gonna allow MNKD to give guidance on TDPI?
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Post by sportsrancho on Aug 7, 2023 16:10:25 GMT -5
Show me any reliable academic study that proves guidance does squat for a share price. Guidance is great if you're profitable and kicking ass (and don't need to provide guidance). Otherwise, it's hopium and everybody knows it. The analysts use the guidance to up the price targets. It’s not Hopium and everybody knows it. Where do you come up with this stuff?🤣 ..under promise and over deliver …just a little bit. |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 7, 2023 16:39:08 GMT -5
Don’t worry sports, once mike does finally issue guidance rest assured pcgorman will say it’s a brilliant idea! I’m looking forward to that as I know you are 😆
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2023 16:57:37 GMT -5
Don’t worry sports, once mike does finally issue guidance rest assured pcgorman will say it’s a brilliant idea! I’m looking forward to that as I know you are 😆 Not a chance. I speak my mind on my views. You'll have to look elsewhere for a parrot. Hey! Maybe that could be your next avatar! |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 7, 2023 16:58:59 GMT -5
Show me any reliable academic study that proves guidance does squat for a share price. Guidance is great if you're profitable and kicking ass (and don't need to provide guidance). Otherwise, it's hopium and everybody knows it. The analysts use the guidance to up the price targets. It’s not Hopium and everybody knows it. Where do you come up with this stuff?🤣 ..under promise and over deliver …just a little bit. Well, that's almost the same thing as a link to a reliable academic study proving the value of guidance.  |
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Post by alethea on Aug 7, 2023 17:06:31 GMT -5
Don’t worry sports, once mike does finally issue guidance rest assured pcgorman will say it’s a brilliant idea! I’m looking forward to that as I know you are 😆 Not a chance. I speak my mind on my views. You'll have to look elsewhere for a parrot. Hey! Maybe that could be your next avatar! Interestingly it seems Mike and crew agree with you prcGorman as they indicated they will not be providing a lot of guidance going forward for various reasons. Maybe one good reason is that opposition forces relish attacking it. |
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Post by Chris-C on Aug 7, 2023 17:08:12 GMT -5
Regarding the wisdom of underpromising and overdelivering, I had the sense that Mike was doing exactly that. He refrained from giving guidance so as to be able to beat expectations next quarter, which I believe may be profitable for the company. Regarding the market, I really don't expect to see a significant jump in share price tomorrow simply because volume in August has been so low and under these conditions the game players can manipulate the SP at will. Eventually, people will catch on, but I don't expect to see it happen tomorrow. I'm always happy with any improvement in SP, but as a long-term investor, I'm quite happy to be patient given the products, the pipeline, and the approaching milestones. IMO, this was the best quarterly report ever.
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Post by alethea on Aug 7, 2023 17:18:44 GMT -5
Nonetheless it was a brilliant quarter (by the standards of MNKD's last 10 years). Profitabilty, cash, revenue growth among other positives. Personally I am interested in seeing how the fudsters and Debbie Downers will recast their negative slants and insinuations. Especially now that they no longer have lack of cash, going concern, insidious debt, blah, blah, blah to b*tch and moan about. Oh wait, there is that matter of zero growth. Remember how not long ago they were dissing MNKD's latest debt financing? You know that deal MNKD obtained with the usurious 2.5 percent interest rate. |
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