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Post by cretin11 on Aug 16, 2023 16:06:27 GMT -5
With very high and persistent SIR, the “piling on” has happened and continues. As for currently piling on, it sure doesn't seem that the open short interest is increasing meaningfully. Seems you have a much more dour opinion of MNKD than I do at this point. Your view that we are still driven primarily by people shorting the stock would lead to the logic of selling ones position with the pops of great earnings. Not my view. I believe we are in much, much better financial situation and other than swings typical of smaller biotechs, we are now in period where we are heading up in share price with little real effect from shorts. Glad I can enjoy the good times... guess I overcame the MNKD PTSD. KTIM, that is so well said. Congrats on overcoming the MNKD PTSD, I'm gladly right there with you. It would be difficult to get over the PTSD if one believes we are being controlled by the shorts, naked or otherwise. Those days have been in the rear view mirror for quite a while IMO, but the PTSD unfortunately lingers for some. |
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Post by biffn on Aug 16, 2023 16:12:16 GMT -5
Me, too. And they used to get paid by the word. It’s an MO.
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Post by biffn on Aug 16, 2023 16:14:01 GMT -5
that big sell order right before the close sure looked like long-term debt holders.
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Post by ktim on Aug 16, 2023 16:28:55 GMT -5
Got into MNKD because I have a friend that knew Dr. Mann well. I've long admired Al. I bought my first MNKD call options before first CRL. Stayed out until before second CRL... before that I bought shares rather than calls. I've been LONG ever since. With the earnings pop, MNKD is now back to being my largest single stock holding... jumping ahead of AVGO. Never have I shorted MNKD or had any communication with someone I knew to be a short or working with shorts. I have at times sold SOME of my holdings, and repurchased at lower levels, but I've always held a LONG position since shortly before second CRL. I now have the largest number of shares I've ever held.
Funny when me saying... "don't worry about the daily fluctuations and post pop slump, we'll be at $6 or higher within 3 months", is considered bashing. Maybe that's some sophisticated short Jedi mind trick, lol
Covering for shorts? I think one would be stupid to be shorting right now. Even if a slump after the big pop was likely, I think that trade is way to risky now. Though perhaps calling them stupid is really praising them? It is true that to the extent new shorting is occurring it bothers me little, since I am very confident our share price is headed higher through the rest of this year (notwithstanding any broader market crash). That isn't covering for shorts, it's dismissing them as misguided nuisance to us at this point.
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Post by letitride on Aug 16, 2023 16:54:00 GMT -5
If Mid Cap can force a conversion with a sustained SP above $5 it seems it would be in their best interest to help make it happen and get out of a loan made at 2.5% interest.
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Post by peppy on Aug 16, 2023 17:17:17 GMT -5
Nov 30, 2022 at 7:37am anderson said: $230 mil notes can convert at $5.21. So if share price goes above $5.21 before 1 DEC 2025 there shouldn't be a problem with the $230 debt, just dilution from the conversion which should not surprise anyone. $8.8 mil Mann Group can convert $2.50, so these will be converted. $40 mil Midcap. This is the bad one. "The Company must also comply with a financial covenant relating to trailing twelve month minimum Afrezza net revenue, tested on a monthly basis, unless the Company has $90.0 million or more of unrestricted cash and short-term investments." So the Midcap loan actually ties up $50 million more than is needed to repay it since Afrezza net revenue is not on target. Midcap has an interest cap of 8.5% so if Mannkind can invest and get returns greater than that it isn't a problem. It also has early termination fees, which drop to the min of 1% after April 22, 2023. Loan repayments start September 1, 2023, until paid in full on August 1, 2025. So Mannkind will probably just pay back as scheduled, unless they get in a bind and need to drop below the $90 mil reserve. This also explains why they are not spending a lot of cash. anderson |
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Post by ktim on Aug 16, 2023 17:29:07 GMT -5
Probably would make sense to just terminate Midcap even with the fee, though then having balance sheet seemingly hit would be bad optics even if the reality were that it frees up money.
Thanks for details Peppy. I had it in my mind that $230M notes were at lower conversion price, though I can't imagine being below $5.21 then.
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Post by hellodolly on Aug 17, 2023 6:20:54 GMT -5
Nov 30, 2022 at 7:37am anderson said: $230 mil notes can convert at $5.21. So if share price goes above $5.21 before 1 DEC 2025 there shouldn't be a problem with the $230 debt, just dilution from the conversion which should not surprise anyone. $8.8 mil Mann Group can convert $2.50, so these will be converted. $40 mil Midcap. This is the bad one. "The Company must also comply with a financial covenant relating to trailing twelve month minimum Afrezza net revenue, tested on a monthly basis, unless the Company has $90.0 million or more of unrestricted cash and short-term investments." So the Midcap loan actually ties up $50 million more than is needed to repay it since Afrezza net revenue is not on target. Midcap has an interest cap of 8.5% so if Mannkind can invest and get returns greater than that it isn't a problem. It also has early termination fees, which drop to the min of 1% after April 22, 2023. Loan repayments start September 1, 2023, until paid in full on August 1, 2025. So Mannkind will probably just pay back as scheduled, unless they get in a bind and need to drop below the $90 mil reserve. This also explains why they are not spending a lot of cash. anderson So, we are beyond the high end of the early termination fees as of April 22 this year. The fee now stands at 1%. This is not really a barrier or in play as much as the interest rate is at rock bottom. The Midcap loan was $40M. The requirement to comply with at least 90.0 million in cash and short term investments had been a concern for me but, with the lease-buy back a couple years ago and adding over $200M to the balance sheet from those proceeds, this is also not a barrier. That leaves the conversion as their best option and I think what Midcap would hope for as best case scenario for them. I suspect, IMHO, that before 1 DEC 2025, the share price will be well over $5.21 and Midcap will be happy taking the conversion, but likely sell most of their MNKD holdings at that point and take the profit for their clients. Everyone wins. We win based on having them as a backstop and the business relationship and they win taking profits. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 17, 2023 9:31:00 GMT -5
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Post by mymann on Aug 17, 2023 13:04:40 GMT -5
It took little longer than I expected to go below 5 again.
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Post by peppy on Aug 17, 2023 13:06:22 GMT -5
It took little longer than I expected to go below 5 again. good to know. |
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Post by mymann on Aug 17, 2023 13:17:11 GMT -5
4.75 or 4.35 would be the support? I be buying for next run up to next earnings.
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Post by ktim on Aug 17, 2023 13:57:19 GMT -5
A bit disappointing, but in context of the overall market not surprising. What I would expect is higher lows and higher highs as we move forward... wide trading range but trending up.
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Post by joeypotsandpans on Aug 17, 2023 14:21:08 GMT -5
With the gap on the daily and hourly charts we can see this go down to $4.60 area on any pullbacks, would be a great buying area if looking to add or start a position IMO. This could happen on a bigger overall market correction which is certainly plausible coming towards the back half of Q3 and start of Q4. Having said that, I am expecting increasing coverage and upgrades going forward. 😉👍🏻 Another .30-.40 to go, it could be fleeting so have limit orders ready IF you've been looking to add, the broader market is doing it's part. |
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Post by peppy on Aug 17, 2023 15:07:57 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, : 2,641,147 shares.......1,784,186 shares 20 mins prior to the close. $4.95 1.98% -0.100 .Market recap, The monthly $COMPQ has taken out last months low and headed lower...... schrts.co/eIDJZtgi.The Monthly $SPX has taken out last months low......https://schrts.co/nQfstAWQ - Both the $COMPQ and the $SPX have made a lower high for now. MNKD share price has not taken out the low of last month....... schrts.co/nwWpNGSv. . . . . |
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