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Post by JEvans on May 17, 2023 16:25:33 GMT -5
PPS $13 in 2023, $34 in 2024, $55 in 2025 ! I'm not a settler but I'd settle for $25 in 25! Brother runner.......its time to DOMINATE, not settle. DOMINATE |
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Post by runner on May 17, 2023 16:28:16 GMT -5
PPS $13 in 2023, $34 in 2024, $55 in 2025 ! I'm not a settler but I'd settle for $25 in 25! Brother runner.......its time to DOMINATE, not settle. DOMINATE Got it...$55 it is!! |
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Post by Thundersnow on May 17, 2023 16:28:39 GMT -5
starting at around 16:20 "we want to see Mannkind IPF branded products in the future. we think its a huge unmet need. we think our lung delivery technology can really help penetrate the lungs and that we get really good consistent lung coverage with our technology more than any other dry powder In The World." Can someone help me and explain the issue around drug ownership/patents? The formulas MNKD is working on are drugs that were created/developed by other Pharmas. MNKD could partner with them but as of now Mike's strategy is to develop a DPI and market it alone. Are there any legal issues/HEADWINDS in MNKD's path by doing this?? Can a Novartis or Boehringer Ingelheim come in and file legal action against MNKD and stop everything?? That's my biggest fear. |
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Post by lennymnkd on May 17, 2023 16:52:41 GMT -5
My thing 🤔is the blue hale/ CGM …and remember Mike said the Libre was the better deal
And we all know who owns Libre … - Abbott
Hey maybe another device product in our lineup…sounds lucrative.
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Post by sayhey24 on May 17, 2023 18:21:33 GMT -5
starting at around 16:20 "we want to see Mannkind IPF branded products in the future. we think its a huge unmet need. we think our lung delivery technology can really help penetrate the lungs and that we get really good consistent lung coverage with our technology more than any other dry powder In The World." Can someone help me and explain the issue around drug ownership/patents? The formulas MNKD is working on are drugs that were created/developed by other Pharmas. MNKD could partner with them but as of now Mike's strategy is to develop a DPI and market it alone. Are there any legal issues/HEADWINDS in MNKD's path by doing this?? Can a Novartis or Boehringer Ingelheim come in and file legal action against MNKD and stop everything?? That's my biggest fear. I don't think Mike has potential legal issues. Aren't these all old drugs? My bigger concern is they all look like small potatoes to me when compared to afrezza and what a TS GLP1 could be. When Mike started down this road he had no idea how to sell afrezza and needed a "Redirect" which are these compounds and V-Go. Then Tyvaso DPI is a huge winner and proves DPI. Afrezza gets $35 Medicare with pre auths which opens 40% of the RAA market. The kids trial seems to be doing better than excepted. The India trial seems to be doing better dosing than the Affinity-2 and may show 1.5-2% reduction in A1c. And, Mike never knew MNKD had TS GLP1 in the freezer. If we can get a few easy wins and can profitably sell them a few small potatoes are good. However, I sure don't want him getting distracted from getting the afrezza/GLP1 study going or making sure afrezza no longer needs pre auths in 2024 for Medicare. Working with the 2 main CGM vendors on a Medicare joint sales plan would be time well spent. If the India study shows the results Mike mentioned he should be using that new phone he just got for the conference call and get Sayer and Ford on that phone for all the T2 Medicare patients who all need a CGM even if they don't know they need it. How about the TS GLP1 study? Its taken forever to get him to do the afrezza/GLP1 study. Finally it seems he is moving forward. How long for TS GLP1? For TS GLP1 I would think a GLP1 as good as Rybelsus without the nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea should do at least $200M but probably more. If they could get a weekly inhaled formula probably $500M+. The diet community is not thrilled injecting but if they can lose 25lbs they will do it. Give them the inhaler with no/less nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea and no needles and we have a russet versus the fingerlings Mike is currently cooking up. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 17, 2023 19:16:45 GMT -5
"...that's something we continue to explore with them" were almost the last words in the RBC presentation. It was in reference to the 2nd "asset" from UTHR on the TechnoSphere "platform". My key takeaway from Mike's presentation was that there was a lot of thought that went into deciding to invest in orphan lung disease applications and into setting up studies/trials both for orphan lung disease and for Afrezza. I think MannKind has done a masterful job of developing and preparing for manufacture of Tyvaso DPI (which is turning into a bona fide blockbuster for UTHR), for positioning clofazimine for development and marketing, and for positioning Afrezza for Time In Range (TIR) dominance in the insulin market, especially amongst T1s and young T1s. Thinking about how much they've done in 6 years starting with "less than a quarter's worth of cash" and where they are now and what they are poised to achieve, it almost gives me chills. It feels surreal. I'm going to channel MTOI. 55 in 25!!! (PPS YE 2025). $1.2B MC and $200M 2024 revenues, playing devil's advocate = 6x revs or will the 2024 revenue run rate come in higher? 6X times is pretty well priced in currently? Thoughts? Did you mean $200M revenues in 2023? IBU (Insulin Business Unit) is likely to bring in $70M+ by itself in 2023. Parrerob's forecast (https://mnkd.proboards.com/thread/13715/fy-2023-forecast) was $182M. I know Parrerob said a $200M "run rate" for 2024 but I don't assume that we'll only add $4M to $5M in increased Tyvaso DPI royalties revenue per quarter if UTHR is going to hit close to their original $2B in 2 years guidance soon after launch. And there is some reason to believe they'll not only hit the $2B, they'll exceed it.
I don't think the impacts of the India and Pediatrics (esp. the pediatrics) trials can be easily priced in until about 12 to 18 months from now. Mike Castagna speculated at material progress in Afrezza sales from Medicare in 2024. And if I understood the timeline for Clofazamine correctly, we can expect sales beginning (late?) in 2024. 2025 is only 18.5 months away and I expect it could be a breakout year for MNKD. If shorts cover, and the share price is built on reliable and growing EPS + some amount of blue sky speculation if Afrezza and Clofazamine perform well in the market place, I can hope the P/E would be on the high-side. Do I really think the PPS will hit $55 in 2025? Sadly, no. If there's no significant dilution between now and then, and things go well but not the best possible outcome, than I will guess teens or twenties assuming .50 to $1 EPS, but best possible outcome exceeding expectations, maybe $55 in 2025. A person can dream.
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Post by mymann on May 17, 2023 19:37:20 GMT -5
Every time little increases in sp wild pumping starts. Only to be slapped back to reality from crooks who control the market.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 17, 2023 19:56:57 GMT -5
Right? And every time share price increases usefully, short bashing cockroaches come out of the woodwork, especially on those "other" investor social media websites. (Not here of course. ProBoards is vaccinated and immune.)
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Post by mymann on May 17, 2023 21:26:17 GMT -5
Let not get head of ourselves. I personally thought many times in the past thinking this is the year mnkd takes off and maybe next year or in couple off years but meanwhile, another buying opportunity. Reading posts like the recent "55 by 2025", setting up for another disappointing outcome. Reality is market makers only make it happen when after they have their serving first. Meanwhile retail investors gets their lunch money stolen.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 17, 2023 21:43:13 GMT -5
You may not be familiar with mytakeonit (MTOI) and his famous (for this board) prediction(s) of $10 share price. He’s always been a bit tongue in cheek when he predicts it. Most of us assume he’ll someday be right, but in the meantime, it’s kind of amusing (to me at least). So when I wrote that I was channeling MTOI and said $55 in 25, I was mostly joking, and admitted in my response to hellodolly that I don’t actually expect that share price. I won’t say it’s not possible, but do assume it’s not very probable for what we know now 2 years in advance, but as we’ve seen a lot can happen in 2 years and so $500M to $1B in profit (which must be combined with a generous P/E to get close to $55/sh) isn’t absurdly impossible, but right now it doesn’t look very probable. For that to happen Afrezza has to become a blockbuster and Clofazamine has to make strong contributions and UTHR needs to be making serious penetration into ILD market. Can that happen? It can. Will it happen? Seems like a stretch to me.
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Post by mytakeonit on May 17, 2023 23:00:15 GMT -5
$10 is definitely doable ... I don't remember saying that $55 in 25 ... But, I do see a $100 in 5 years. Who knows? Who cares? ... my average cost is about $3 ... and I have loaded a bunch more shares. I also have added a lot more shareholders from my neighborhood.
So ... from the hood ... ALL IS WELL !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by akemp3000 on May 18, 2023 4:44:44 GMT -5
Obviously no one knows where the share price is heading but the most important perspective today is how different the company environment is as compared to any time in the past. History has certainly crushed optimism in the past for many but that's no longer a valid reason to expect it's going to happen now as the company continues to grow and advance. IMO.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 18, 2023 4:54:54 GMT -5
I don’t know where to share this, but Stockwhisper posted an email from Mike on Stocktwits.
In it she asked him 2-3 questions and he responded.
The point of this is I’m on another Stock board talking about another Stock and there’s been dead silence..people are emailing the public relations office, the CEO, the new CEO, the CEO that just stepped down. Nobody can get a hold of anybody, just complete radio silence and some poster comes on there and says CEOs do not ever respond at large companies, and you’re lucky to get anything other than a response from the IR department that isn’t photocopy to everybody.
I said MNKD is on the NASDAQ and our CEO personally responds to the shareholders and we always get a response from our IR department!
They were amazed, because I actually posted the picture of the response and he even said some thing about the bashers ( I’m assuming he was talking about StockTwits ) The same people don’t think CEOs read Stock Twits. Some of them are from Canada though..who knows:-)🤷♀️🤣
Anyway, shout out to Mike for making us unique, and for caring enough, and for the transparency❣️
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 18, 2023 6:24:48 GMT -5
When he first got here Mike seemed (to me) young, energetic, but somewhat overwhelmed at what he inherited. Six years later he seems seasoned, mature, confident. When he was replying to questions during the RBC interview, you can hear his passion for his job. His range in terms of understanding aspects of the business and the industry and his ability to communicate about key points, especially on technical details, is evident. The continued reference to analysis and decisions years in advance of goals shows that he’s surrounded himself with competent veterans. This company has only a few hundred employees and they’re market cap is above $1B, with an outlook that is jaw-dropping. It is hard to patiently await results but I’m more confident than at anytime in the last 10 years that my investment is in good hands and will provide a good return.
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Post by hellodolly on May 18, 2023 8:40:37 GMT -5
When he first got here Mike seemed (to me) young, energetic, but somewhat overwhelmed at what he inherited. Six years later he seems seasoned, mature, confident. When he was replying to questions during the RBC interview, you can hear his passion for his job. His range in terms of understanding aspects of the business and the industry and his ability to communicate about key points, especially on technical details, is evident. The continued reference to analysis and decisions years in advance of goals shows that he’s surrounded himself with competent veterans. This company has only a few hundred employees and they’re market cap is above $1B, with an outlook that is jaw-dropping. It is hard to patiently await results but I’m more confident than at anytime in the last 10 years that my investment is in good hands and will provide a good return. I added more, 200 shares, this morning. As MTOI says, "Buy them while they're still cheap." |
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