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Post by Clement on May 12, 2023 8:06:03 GMT -5
Re: akemp "upside volume discussion"
In the latest UTHER EC, it was stated that due to MNKD T-DPI plant expansions in 2023, there will be manufacturing capacity to serve 25K patients by end of 2023. In the latest MNKD EC, it was stated that for every 10K T-DPI patients, MNKD gets $200M to $240M in revenue annually. Therefore, there will be MNKD manufacturing capacity for at least 2.5 x $200M = $500M in MNKD T-DPI revenues.
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Post by Clement on May 12, 2023 8:12:13 GMT -5
In the latest UTHER EC, it was stated that due to MNKD T-DPI plant expansions in 2023, there will be manufacturing capacity to serve 25K patients by end of 2023. In the latest MNKD EC, it was stated that for every 10K patients, MNKD get $200M to $240M in revenue annually. Therefore, there will be MNKD manufacturing capacity for at least 2.5 x $200M = $500M in MNKD T-DPI revenues. Btw: UTHR pays for those T-DPI plant expansions at MNKD.
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Post by akemp3000 on May 12, 2023 9:49:07 GMT -5
UTHR paying for plant expansion would certainly bring up interesting speculation since Mannkind no longer owns the plant but is leasing it back.
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Post by letitride on May 12, 2023 10:02:18 GMT -5
I see UTHR paying for the expansion as good as a buy in or better.
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Post by mytakeonit on May 12, 2023 12:36:45 GMT -5
I've seen lease backs amounting to $1/year.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by agedhippie on May 12, 2023 18:46:17 GMT -5
That would be unsurprising. If you have a rapidly growing product line you need to be able to meet demand. UTHR have a recurrent nightmare that they run out of road to continue blocking LQDA and LQDA vacuum up all the unmet demand. UTHR need to be meeting demand by the time LQDA launches which is probably about a year out. Havent been keeping up with LQDA, but does LQDA have a large manufacturing plant(or building one right now) to produce the volume they would need to do this? They have a manufacturing plant, no idea of the the size though. UTHR is going to get the bulk of the market, LQDA is going to get a chunk of the rest so they don't need a huge plant (they may have visions of a bigger share, but I think that's mostly to support the share price.) Fundamentally this is a rerun of the RAA vs. Afrezza show, but with MNKD on the side of the gorilla this time.
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Post by lennymnkd on May 13, 2023 5:21:07 GMT -5
I've seen lease backs amounting to $1/year. ?
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Post by sayhey24 on May 13, 2023 6:35:00 GMT -5
Havent been keeping up with LQDA, but does LQDA have a large manufacturing plant(or building one right now) to produce the volume they would need to do this? They have a manufacturing plant, no idea of the the size though. UTHR is going to get the bulk of the market, LQDA is going to get a chunk of the rest so they don't need a huge plant (they may have visions of a bigger share, but I think that's mostly to support the share price.) Fundamentally this is a rerun of the RAA vs. Afrezza show, but with MNKD on the side of the gorilla this time. Aged - while I agree LQDA is not going to get much of the market, this is nothing like "RAA vs afrezza show". The afrezza story should be a series similar to DopeSick on Hulu. Corruption at the FDA, Pharma Bro working for Jim Cramer, the giant in diabetes who started Mannkind and who puts $1B into its development dies, the replacement CEO who could move afrezza forward doesn't show up for work day 1, a serious leader in diabetes comes to MNKD says "this is the easiest job he ever had" starts pulling things together and then quits right before his previous employer introduces Mounjaro. I could go on and on. At least now we are starting to get some traction. Mike said Medicare is helping just as we predicted. June is almost here. I just hope he kept his eye on the ball and we can drop the Medicare pre auths for 2024. He also said Irl Hirsch has now discovered afrezza. I say Irl Hirsch should have been reading Proboards years ago.
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Post by cppoly on May 13, 2023 6:48:40 GMT -5
Hope this is not an overly simplified post but why would a doctor prescribe LQDA's product that requires 60% more of it to do the same thing as Tyvaso DPI?
Are LQDA sales reps going to attempt to steal existing DPI patients? How exactly does that sales pitch go? Yea we do the exact same thing as our competitor but in order to achieve same effect we need to use a lot more of out product because we have an inferior technology?
Or is LQDA only going to go after new patients?
Then wouldn't a UTHR sales rep have the advantage once this new patient is established? We do exactly what they do but our product has a superior technology that uses much less product to be as efficient as possible. So then the doctor agrees to use DPI going forward...
Just don't see why a doctor would choose the inferior option.
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Post by agedhippie on May 13, 2023 9:36:03 GMT -5
Hope this is not an overly simplified post but why would a doctor prescribe LQDA's product that requires 60% more of it to do the same thing as Tyvaso DPI? ... I think it is a huge over simplification. The quantity of drug is irrelevant if the delivery is easy - a case in point is Afrezza which is definitely not efficient in terms of the quantity of insulin needed in it's manufacture, but has an easy delivery making that inefficiency irrelevant. If the LQDA delivery is easy then nobody will care if it uses 60% more of the active component for the same effect. What's really funny is that I remember Looking For Diogenes making exactly this argument against Afrezza. I clipped the bit on sales strategy since I have no idea how the LQDA reps sales pitch would go. I suppose whatever pharma reps sales usually do.
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Post by lennymnkd on May 13, 2023 10:25:53 GMT -5
That would be a tough sell on shark tank .
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 13, 2023 13:59:08 GMT -5
I've seen lease backs amounting to $1/year. ? Kind of like a reverse mortgage. The property is sold, but the occupant is permitted to stay on under generous financial terms for a limited time.
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Post by lennymnkd on May 13, 2023 14:22:37 GMT -5
Yes but mnkd is no longer the principal of the property How does that play into United getting involved in a build out / construction… I guess its negotiated with the new owners ! Seems complicated.
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Post by akemp3000 on May 13, 2023 15:16:59 GMT -5
The owner is a financial investment firm seeking a solid long-term return from Mannkind on the lease back, not in owning a specialty pharma manufacturing plant. Typically the company seeking a sale and lease back wants to raise funds in the near term with the option to buy back the lease at a later time. This fit with Mannkind's needs at the time.
If there is a M&A play down the road, it would seem beneficial for Mannkind to buy back the lease and own the plant outright once again. This is why I suggested this could be one of many possibilities for requesting more shares on the shelf. Someone mentioned UTHR was funding the plant expansion. I was not aware of this. If true, this would seem complicated unless UTHR has bigger plans which is why I brought the subject up.
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Post by ktim on May 13, 2023 16:35:22 GMT -5
Hope this is not an overly simplified post but why would a doctor prescribe LQDA's product that requires 60% more of it to do the same thing as Tyvaso DPI? Are LQDA sales reps going to attempt to steal existing DPI patients? How exactly does that sales pitch go? Yea we do the exact same thing as our competitor but in order to achieve same effect we need to use a lot more of out product because we have an inferior technology? Or is LQDA only going to go after new patients? Then wouldn't a UTHR sales rep have the advantage once this new patient is established? We do exactly what they do but our product has a superior technology that uses much less product to be as efficient as possible. So then the doctor agrees to use DPI going forward... Just don't see why a doctor would choose the inferior option. It's not a sales pitch from the reps visiting doctors that would matter. LQDA would need to offer PBM/insurers better pricing. If both trep formulations do the job the Dr will prescribe whichever is covered by the patient's insurance. One could speculate that LQDA's product will cost more due to requiring more API. That may be true... I wouldn't know enough about the rest of the cost structure of GOGS on a product like that. But even if that's true, LQDA might accept much lower gross margins in order to win a spot on some formularies. Better to get small profit margin on sales than no profit on no sales. Bottom line I think LQDA could help insurers assert a bit of pricing pressure on UTHR, but I think UTHR will hold onto the lions share of sales. I can't imagine LQDA having a price advantage, and it certainly seems patients would prefer dreamboat trep (to the extent their desires have anything to do with what they get).
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