Information Warfare...Do We Have Options?

[4Balance]

I realize "this is biotech", and we should expect price fluctuation...perhaps even the beaten-down PPS we're seeing now. But to a large extent it seems that the price has reacted strongly to incorrect, negative information.

At this point some of us choose to focus on other things in life, just waiting for the sales figures to roll in.

Others--like those who are the most active in this forum--would engage in the public space if given the opportunity.

Question: are there ways we can "engage" that can have a positive effect on PPS? Are we truly at the mercy of those who publish the hit pieces?

Those who publish the hit pieces are engaging in Information Warfare. Their objective is to drive down the PPS, and their efforts have been effective. (To what extent can we attribute the downward price action to negative information vs. the absence of new, positive information?)

In Information Warfare people play two sides--Offense and Defense. With the exception of Dr. Tran, to date the best our people [in this forum] have been able to muster is a reactive defense. And our primary weapon has been Comments on high-visibility articles. Is this the best we can do?

Do we have options for Offense..?? We have a number of good thinkers in this group. Do our Members have direct or indirect connections with opinion leaders and/or media that have the influence and reach necessary to effectively spread the "good news?"

So...some questions for thought and discussion:
1. What are some of the most effective media outlets for getting the message out? (e.g., Strategic Advantage, ??)

2. Who are the credible speakers who can influence opinion? Where should we be looking--investing, diabetics, scientists, finance, others...??

3. Who in our forum has the credentials to make cogent cases for MNKD...the company, Technosphere, and Afrezza?  (For starters, what about the medical professionals in this group? The articulate and well-informed diabetics?)

4. Whom do we know has access to effective media outlets? Is there a way to ghost write for, or "equip", someone who is a credible speaker who has access to an effective media outlet?  If the person has good ideas, but a lack of familiarity with English damages his/her credibility, could some of act as editors?


I welcome your thoughts.

As a retired military person it is natural for me to look for ways to respond to situations that seem particularly unjust or damaging...hence the turning to a weapon--Information Warfare--that has great potential for power.  Can we can figure a way to harness it...?


--4Balance

[Deleted]

There are some on this forum with whom I respect a great deal, as their DD is incredible and they've been thru thick and thin with this stock. Others, not so much. YMB is 99% trash, and 1% good discussion. ST is fast becoming the 140 character version of YMB. SA, well you know the deal. I will say, though, that there are some on SA with whom I enjoy reading Psycho Analyst, Eisenman (sp?), and George Rho, although George hasnt done any favors for himself with his outlandish price predictions. Outside of that, all of those guys have good, sound logical responses.

Its sad, but there's a lot of share float out there, and a lot of it is retail investors, and as such these hit pieces and misinformation can have a larger impact on share price.

[4Balance]

Oct 4, 2014 16:52:28 GMT -5 @fugacity said:

There are some on this forum with whom I respect a great deal, as their DD is incredible and they've been thru thick and thin with this stock. Others, not so much. YMB is 99% trash, and 1% good discussion. ST is fast becoming the 140 character version of YMB. SA, well you know the deal. I will say, though, that there are some on SA with whom I enjoy reading Psycho Analyst, Eisenman (sp?), and George Rho, although George hasnt done any favors for himself with his outlandish price predictions. Outside of that, all of those guys have good, sound logical responses.

Its sad, but there's a lot of share float out there, and a lot of it is retail investors, and as such these hit pieces and misinformation can have a larger impact on share price.

fugacity,

I agree...my thoughts stem from my admiration for so many in this forum.  They know their stuff, and they're good at articulating it.  So it seemed reasonable to think that they might choose to get involved.

I agree with your opinions of those SA writers.  I wonder if the experts you quoted have something in the bag, ready for publication.  How easy is it to communicate with them via email?  To the extent they are well respected, "low-hanging fruit" might include articles that help to correct and neutralize the mess-up data.

I wonder, what does it take to get SA to publish one's work...??

Thx for replying!

--4B

[4Balance]

...oops..."Strategic Advantage" in the initial post was a Freudian slip...should have said, "Seeking Alpha." (I can't Edit it at this point.)

[jpg]

Hi 4balance,

You said: As a retired military person it is natural for me to look for ways to respond to situations that seem particularly unjust or damaging


I totally see the damaging part of the statement but I must admit to being curious and confused about the use of the word 'unjust'. Maybe it's my time working or traveling in all those war torn countries but what does 'military' have to do with responding to 'unjust' situations? Isn't that word code for 'what we don't like which we can change with our tools of war' more then anything else? Militaries are simply tools of the powerful. Since the beginning of written history every side always seems to be fighting a just war.

As for Mannkind I suspect there is very little we can do to alter the trajectory of share price with the tools we have. As time insensitive shareholders the price just gives us an opportunity to pick up more shares cheaply (which is in the end the only real response the market will give to scare away these bear attacks).

JPG

[BlueCat]

In order to cure an illness, you must first accurately diagnosis it.

4Balance - If I read correctly (and please shout out if I don't), you are suggesting that the pps keeps dropping largely as a result of available float moved by retail traders, that are being influenced by the negative media.

I'm not certain I would agree that is the core issue. I wish it were the case, because that would be far easier to influence or change, I think.

And I think this has been tested ... When we've had positive news (de-risked with major milestones met), its had truly (AH only) fleeting impact.

I think the core problem is in that short interest and what that really represents. And the hit pieces are a tool or smoke screen being used, in combination with swing traders, some bad market days, etc - to walk the price down.

But I'm not certain just removing the hit pieces would do it? I have a hard time believing the big money is really making their decisions based on these pieces.

But overall - I think you are asking the right question - suggesting a proactive approach... Don't just whine ... do something.

My response tends to be more on the end of - does anyone know a really good lawyer ....?

[4Balance]

Oct 5, 2014 1:09:07 GMT -5 BlueCat said:

In order to cure an illness, you must first accurately diagnosis it.

4Balance - If I read correctly (and please shout out if I don't), you are suggesting that the pps keeps dropping largely as a result of available float moved by retail traders, that are being influenced by the negative media.

I'm not certain I would agree that is the core issue. I wish it were the case, because that would be far easier to influence or change, I think.

And I think this has been tested ... When we've had positive news (de-risked with major milestones met), its had truly (AH only) fleeting impact.

I think the core problem is in that short interest and what that really represents. And the hit pieces are a tool or smoke screen being used, in combination with swing traders, some bad market days, etc - to walk the price down.

But I'm not certain just removing the hit pieces would do it? I have a hard time believing the big money is really making their decisions based on these pieces.

But overall - I think you are asking the right question - suggesting a proactive approach... Don't just whine ... do something.

My response tends to be more on the end of - does anyone know a really good lawyer ....?

I'm not sure if it's "largely"...that's why I posed the question re how much influence these hit pieces are having ("To what extent can we attribute...").  But there does seem to be a correlation between hit pieces and downward movement.  True, the positive moves are fleeting...at this point.  But the idea is, if we could lessen the damage associated with hit pieces...or neutralize them...or remind investors of the essential goodness...perhaps we could limit or reverse the slide.

And--right on--do something!

Another possibility is to persuade Matt P. to rebut the most recent hit piece that contains such flagrant errors.  If we want to see him take that action, perhaps an inflow of emails would do the trick...??


Thoughts..??

--4B

[4Balance]

Oct 4, 2014 22:40:38 GMT -5 jpg said:

Hi 4balance,

You said: As a retired military person it is natural for me to look for ways to respond to situations that seem particularly unjust or damaging


I totally see the damaging part of the statement but I must admit to being curious and confused about the use of the word 'unjust'. Maybe it's my time working or traveling in all those war torn countries but what does 'military' have to do with responding to 'unjust' situations? Isn't that word code for 'what we don't like which we can change with our tools of war' more then anything else? Militaries are simply tools of the powerful. Since the beginning of written history every side always seems to be fighting a just war.

As for Mannkind I suspect there is very little we can do to alter the trajectory of share price with the tools we have. As time insensitive shareholders the price just gives us an opportunity to pick up more shares cheaply (which is in the end the only real response the market will give to scare away these bear attacks).

JPG

JPG,

"Unjust":  per U.S. national security strategy, use of the military is a last resort; first, we exhaust economic and diplomatic options.  And when we apply our "tools of war" we take great care to minimize civilian casualties.  One might say that power is expressed through all three options...diplomatic, economic, and military.  Perhaps...the more powerful the nation, the less likely one needs to use military strength..??  But...the topic was the "unjust."  I'm sure those forces who liberated the Jews from concentration camps had a sense that they were correcting injustice.  And the hue and cry to intervene in Syria in the last year was a reaction to the horrendous acts of barbarism waged by its rulers...we (the U.S.) just couldn't see a clear path to making that happen.  There is a sense that we want to help, to rescue the victims.  That appeals to a deeply-seated value that is good.  (But, typically, the rationale for war is complicated.)  And if you're the guy cleaning up the aftermath...doing your best to repair broken bodies...I can see your asking, "did it have to come to this?"

"Unjust" as applied to this situation is the deliberate use of lies and half-truths to cause damage to a good company.  Is that the most accurate adjective?  Perhaps...or perhaps not...but it's close enough to stir in me a desire to counter the forces behind this activity.  (As Q2U has paraphrased, "don't just whine; do something!")

I also see your point--these are simply buying opportunities. 

But...if this stock is "easily manipulated", as some have suggested, how do we know the downward pressure from hit pieces will abate once the sales figures are in?  Will those fleeting spikes continue to plague us?  If we can mount a good offense...as well as a good defense...can we mitigate the damage?  Become a less attractive target so that PPS is more consistent?

--4B

[Deleted]

If you don't think hit pieces can damage and drive stock price, go look at the time leading up to and immediately after th karp piece was published. It culminated with 2 huge 500,000 share buys (covers) at the end of the trading day.

[jpg]

Oct 5, 2014 3:40:16 GMT -5 4Balance said:

Oct 4, 2014 22:40:38 GMT -5 jpg said:

Hi 4balance,

You said: As a retired military person it is natural for me to look for ways to respond to situations that seem particularly unjust or damaging


I totally see the damaging part of the statement but I must admit to being curious and confused about the use of the word 'unjust'. Maybe it's my time working or traveling in all those war torn countries but what does 'military' have to do with responding to 'unjust' situations? Isn't that word code for 'what we don't like which we can change with our tools of war' more then anything else? Militaries are simply tools of the powerful. Since the beginning of written history every side always seems to be fighting a just war.

As for Mannkind I suspect there is very little we can do to alter the trajectory of share price with the tools we have. As time insensitive shareholders the price just gives us an opportunity to pick up more shares cheaply (which is in the end the only real response the market will give to scare away these bear attacks).

JPG

JPG,

"Unjust":  per U.S. national security strategy, use of the military is a last resort; first, we exhaust economic and diplomatic options.  And when we apply our "tools of war" we take great care to minimize civilian casualties.  One might say that power is expressed through all three options...diplomatic, economic, and military.  Perhaps...the more powerful the nation, the less likely one needs to use military strength..??  But...the topic was the "unjust."  I'm sure those forces who liberated the Jews from concentration camps had a sense that they were correcting injustice.  And the hue and cry to intervene in Syria in the last year was a reaction to the horrendous acts of barbarism waged by its rulers...we (the U.S.) just couldn't see a clear path to making that happen.  There is a sense that we want to help, to rescue the victims.  That appeals to a deeply-seated value that is good.  (But, typically, the rationale for war is complicated.)  And if you're the guy cleaning up the aftermath...doing your best to repair broken bodies...I can see your asking, "did it have to come to this?"

"Unjust" as applied to this situation is the deliberate use of lies and half-truths to cause damage to a good company.  Is that the most accurate adjective?  Perhaps...or perhaps not...but it's close enough to stir in me a desire to counter the forces behind this activity.  (As Q2U has paraphrased, "don't just whine; do something!")

I also see your point--these are simply buying opportunities. 

But...if this stock is "easily manipulated", as some have suggested, how do we know the downward pressure from hit pieces will abate once the sales figures are in?  Will those fleeting spikes continue to plague us?  If we can mount a good offense...as well as a good defense...can we mitigate the damage?  Become a less attractive target so that PPS is more consistent?

--4B

Pointing out one recent war that seemed (to most rational observers) to be 'just' without ever looking at the follies that lead to that war after WW1 is why we keep having 'just wars'. As a long time traveller/ worker in Africa, South America, the Middle East and South East Asia we will have to respectfully disagree on many other things you stated. I do agree that many things happen before militaries are sent in but I will disagree that these things are in anyway benign for the local populations. For 'non polarizing' examples read what happened to Patrice Lumumba in the Congo. He is one of many many other examples. This is the 'prefered course of action'. The powerful have armies to use them if 'plan A' fails and do not hesitate to use them. Populations are made to follow. It isn't that hard to arrange. Look at history starting with the Roman Empire all the way through to more recent Empires. Empires got to be Empires not by 'friendly exploration'. There was some just conquest going on. There is always a 'good' reason though. 'Bringing civilization' was a poplar one for a long time. That doesn't go over so well today though. Our leaders use polarizing simplified recent events to justify our state actions. In my mind WW2 is still too vivid (and central to current world history) to objectively analyze. I am pretty certain I share many of the same biases as you do about WW2.. Look up how Kurdistan was devided (and why) by Churchill after WWI. No benign intentions there. Does this early 20th century folly matter today? It might be highly relevant to a lot of what is happening now. how did half (if not more) of the dictators of the ME get to be in power? Do most people know or care? Still we send in our sons and daughters for these just cause we understand so poorly. Try figuring out what the Crimean War (not the most recent one...) or WW1 even was really about. It kind of makes you shake your head in disbelief as to why so many people died. My rant is almost over. We are at war again and it sadddens me to see how simplistically and casually we are flying into this again. Powell and many wise military leaders have time and again warned us against doing this. We will have to agree to disagree I guess.

As for MNKD being continuously manipulated: I don't think so. Eventually it will stop. The second the shorts see there is no money to be made and real risk of loosing money it will stop. I think that is why the price went up so much recently. Shorts weren't certain MNKD wouldn't be bought out. There is no possible fudging or bashing a cash buyout. Shorts are instantly toast. The Sanofi partnership proved reassuring to the shorts who went back to business as usual.

Mannkind being owned mostly by one rich guy also makes it an impossible hostile takover (unless he dies then things could change fast for a buyout) and shorts know Mr. mann isn't like most CEOs who will sell early just to personally become a multimillionaire (most biotech companies are controlled by no one but management and a friendly to management board).

As a famous investor said: short term the markets are voting machines, long term they are weighing machines. As long as we don't have any time sensitive ownership (we own shares and not short or medium term options we should be fine).

Again in the war issues we we have very different perspectives and opinions but it is not personal obviously. We just have respectfully agree to disagree.



JPG

[mnholdem]

4balance,

Amazing how a single word can evoke such powerful reactions, isn't it? It shows how difficult it can be to wage a public "war of words" when pundits can simply throw in a choice word or phrase to sway public opinion.

I admire your fighting spirit, but recommend letting the indigenous Wall Street writers duke it out. You remember Muhammad Ali? Brilliant strategist of a boxer who, when faced with a stronger opponent, employed the strategy call "rope-a-dope" (I think it was Howard Gossip who coined the term) where Ali would give the illusion of being tired or hurt, inticing the stronger opponent to wear himself down, then knock him out.

Positive press releases for MannKind are coming and strong buy recommendations as well. For now, let the stronger opponent (short interests) wear himself out. Sanofi will deliver the knock out.

[cretin11]

Good thread here. I like the OP's idea to go on offensive rather than always defensive. But mn maybe you're right to let things play out. Hopefully the rope-a-dope is really what's happening. Great reference by the way. I think you meant Howard Cosell, though I don't think Cosell actually coined that term (he did use it of course). Ali used that technique in his epic matches against Foreman and Frazier. A publicist John Condon may have actually named it rope-a-dope but I think there are different versions of how it was named.

[dreamboatcruise]

I'm surprised there hasn't been more news from analysts. I'm guessing it boils down to the fact that they feel there isn't yet enough visibility to allow them to crunch the numbers to provide updated share price targets. Seems like meaningful share price increase will not occur until that changes.

[mnholdem]

Cosell was what I typed. Must be a spell check glitch I didn't catch.

[trenddiver]

It's really up to Al Mann and/or Mannkind to take action to increase the share price. Considering Big Al owns approx 150mm shares, he can't be too happy that the value of his holdings have gone down nearly $750mm in value. Maybe if he bought a million shares, it would give confidence to the longs. In the mean time, if you truly believe in the company and its technology, you add to your positions at these depressed prices. For if Afrezza and the Technosphere technology is what we all believe it is, we will be well rewarded within the next year or two. For those of you on this board looking for significant short term price increases within the next few months, I think you will be disappointed, for the Bears are in control and will be until there is a change in investor sentiment.

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