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Post by prcgorman2 on May 19, 2023 16:29:10 GMT -5
Mike stated ~5 years to bring a new production facility on-line. I assume that 5 year timeline is inclusive of acquiring funding, construction, equipment installation, and FDA approval(s).
It would be interesting to see/hear an analysis from MannKind management on the next 5 years production (and disaster-recovery/business continuity) requirements based on scenarios of:
- estimated demand
- higher than estimated demand
- much higher than estimated demand
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Post by mango on May 19, 2023 16:40:31 GMT -5
You really think Danbury can handle Tyvaso DPI, Afrezza US w/ Pediatric Approval, Brazil, INDIA and R&D? Wake up Sayhey. By the way DNDN was not a P&D. They made a bad decision to grow without the demand. They would have been fine with their 1 main facility and wait for the demand. Classic Wharton business case. OBTW Provenge does work. The PROCEED Registry showed median overall survival of approximately 4 years in men who were treated with PROVENGE when their prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels were less than or equal to 5.27 ng/mL. I sold at $50. If you held - too bad so sad. Did I ever say Danbury could handle all the production? Where did you get that??? I asked did Mike say he was out of afrezza production space??? I doubt they are using one filling line full time for afrezza. I suspect they took the slower line and repurposed for Tyvaso DPI. Brewing the powder was not the issue. Its filling the pods and you can bulk ship the powder to other places. Now - if you have a $B product do you want a single brewing facility - not me. You need disaster recovery. BTW - there is no space in Danbury. I have not been to the facility in a number of years thanks to Covid and now to Mike. I can only guess the facility is kind of a mess right now or Mike would have proudly had the Annual meeting there with cold coffee and some donuts and some NY analysts. It seems next year it will be back. Maybe by that time he will have learned to promote the stock a bit and will have been on some of the TV business shows. You describe LQDA to a T. |
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Post by sayhey24 on May 19, 2023 17:03:27 GMT -5
Mike stated ~5 years to bring a new production facility on-line. I assume that 5 year timeline is inclusive of acquiring funding, construction, equipment installation, and FDA approval(s). It would be interesting to see/hear an analysis from MannKind management on the next 5 years production (and disaster-recovery/business continuity) requirements based on scenarios of: - estimated demand - higher than estimated demand - much higher than estimated demand Did he ever say MNKD was running out of production capacity for afrezza??? I wish he did or even said he was concerned. 5 years seems a bit long since you already have a working model and are just copying it. 3 years I would think is doable. I sure wish we had that problem. Just a year ago Mike had no idea how he was going to sell afrezza. What a difference a year makes. Then again all he had to do was read proboards. Now he needs to take TS GLP1 out of the freezer and while its thawing he needs to pick up his new phone and do some deals and I don't mean more dumpster diving. Damn - I sure hope he is right about the 1.5-2% A1c reduction in the India study. That would be huge. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 19, 2023 17:15:40 GMT -5
I've never heard Mike express concerns about capacity. He seems convinced they have it under control for Tyvaso DPI, and isn't worried about additional production although I'm not sure why not since the stated capacity available for Tyvaso DPI is 25,000 patients in a market estimated to be 75,000. What does capacity look like if Afrezza takes off (finally?). I'm not trying to push for construction of a new facility. I'm just curious what success planning looks like.
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Post by casualinvestor on May 22, 2023 19:50:22 GMT -5
From UTHR's Q1 call:
"I'm also very excited to report big news on the use of capital front. We have allocated $0.5 billion to a new Tyvaso DPI manufacturing facility in Search Triangle Park, North Carolina, with 50,000 patient capacity."
$500M for a manufacturing facility to make 2x as much T-DPI as Danbury is being setup to make. MNKD had better be showing some very good revenue before thinking about adding another facility. I'm not familiar enough with Danbury to know how much space it has to keep growing production before it runs out of space.
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Post by radgray68 on May 22, 2023 20:46:42 GMT -5
Danbury was built to handle $4 Billion dollars in Afrezza sales. That enough?
Besides, very soon Mike's biggest decision is whether to buy the Ferrari or the Lamborghini.
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Post by mymann on May 22, 2023 21:05:15 GMT -5
Here we go again. Couple of days of sp increase and wild pumping speculations.
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Post by prcgorman2 on May 23, 2023 6:36:29 GMT -5
Here we go again. Couple of days of sp increase and wild pumping speculations. Nah, it’s just joy from a story that went from having MNKD longs go from chronically uneasy or even depressed to cautiously optimistic to ebullient optimism. Wild pumping speculations are the work of pumpers, not longs. Just like unceasingly negative comments come from bashers (and chronically uneasy or depressed longs). Anyway, some comments are from genuine investors. Some are from paid pumpers or bashers. The only serious “pumping” I’m aware of from someone I believe is an investor is kevinmik and in the several years I’ve been active here I don’t think I’ve ever seen them post on Proboards. Instead we appear to perhaps be blessed with paid bashers working the short end of the schtick. It’s all good except for the part where some folks have legitimate jobs and careers and others are unethical journaling slime-balls. It makes you feel like you need a shower after you read their vitriol or hyperbole designed to mislead. Cheer up. MNKD share price may not increase a dollar a month for very many months in a row anytime soon (as far as we know). |
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Post by akemp3000 on May 23, 2023 7:58:23 GMT -5
Interesting that this thread is titled in part, Mike's "difficult" decision. Most decisions by CEO's are difficult. This IMO is big and challenging but not especially difficult due to the ongoing partnership with UTHR. No doubt, they've discussed and covered just about every scenario from steady growth to explosive growth to new products as well as the importance of back-up and the timing that might go along with different scenarios. The difficult part is that we have no knowledge of those discussions. My bet is that MC's comfortable with whatever decision is made and knows that an unknown future might cause progress to either slow or accelerate.
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Post by sportsrancho on May 23, 2023 10:18:15 GMT -5
Decisions decisions …should we go big with a marketing campaign after the pediatrics trial? I say yes… but been wrong before 🤷♀️
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Post by BD on May 23, 2023 10:24:43 GMT -5
Danbury was built to handle $4 Billion dollars in Afrezza sales. That enough? Besides, very soon Mike's biggest decision is whether to buy the Ferrari or the Lamborghini. Or the Model S Plaid, leave those polluters in the dust and save some money. |
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Post by Clement on May 23, 2023 11:11:35 GMT -5
Mike stated ~5 years to bring a new production facility on-line. I assume that 5 year timeline is inclusive of acquiring funding, construction, equipment installation, and FDA approval(s). It would be interesting to see/hear an analysis from MannKind management on the next 5 years production (and disaster-recovery/business continuity) requirements based on scenarios of: - estimated demand - higher than estimated demand - much higher than estimated demand Mike did indeed say 5 years. But Martine said 3 years from now for the T-DPI facility in RTP, NC (see below). Following Gorman's thinking above, we can reconcile these statements by considering that: no funding is needed (by UTHR), the land was purchased years ago, ground has already been cleared, and maybe the shell is partially built already (?). Martine A. Rothblatt on the UTHR Q1 2023 earnings call: "So Jess, we are pretty bullish on our forecast for Tyvaso DPI and the maximum capacity of the MannKind facility up in Danbury, Connecticut, will be by the beginning of next year, will be for 25,000 DPI patients. So we'll be entering '24 with a capacity for 25,000 patients. Now as I mentioned in my introductory remarks, our company's goals for the middle of the decade are 25 -- being able to treat 25,000 pulmonary hypertension patients. So if a large proportion of those 25,000 patients are on Tyvaso DPI, which is, I think, reasonable, then it would be like, well, where is the production capacity for the go-big on pulmonary fibrosis, whereas the production capacity for what we think the pulmonary fibrosis market will be. Well, best as we can tell, we expect the pulmonary fibrosis market to actually be for Tyvaso DPI even larger than the pulmonary hypertension market. So we would need more than an additional 25,000 patient capacity for the pulmonary fibrosis market and indeed, the market research and the disease-modifying hypotheses that we have for Tyvaso DPI in pulmonary fibrosis is such that we could easily expect to have 50,000 pulmonary fibrosis patients being treated in addition to the 25,000 mid-decade pulmonary hypertension patients. So that's the reason why we need to start now deploying a substantial amount of capital to build this brand-new Tyvaso DPI production facility in Research Clinical Park, North Carolina. As Mike mentioned, even that facility, even though its launch capacity will be 50,000 patients, it will have a surge capacity to go up to 75,000 patients. So we think between the 25,000 at MannKind, the 50,000 in North Carolina, the surge to 75,000 in North Carolina, as we enter the 2026 time frame, we then have a capacity to support 75,000 to 100,000 DPI patients which would cover our needs for both Group I pulmonary hypertension, Group III pulmonary hypertension, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and additional forms of pulmonary fibrosis that go under the rubric of proliferative -- progressive pulmonary fibrosis, which in fact, we are embarking on the other additional Phase III trial for." finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-2023-united-therapeutics-corp-031152085.htmlIdeally, this post would belong in a thread entitled "T-DPI manufacturing capacity". |
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Post by uvula on May 23, 2023 11:38:01 GMT -5
Decisions decisions …should we go big with a marketing campaign after the pediatrics trial? I say yes… but been wrong before 🤷♀️ MC, no more flying pizzas, okay? |
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Post by radgray68 on May 23, 2023 11:42:40 GMT -5
Here we go again. Couple of days of sp increase and wild pumping speculations. You're right. That was wild speculation. He's gonna be able to buy BOTH the Ferrari AND the Lamborghini! |
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