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Post by bones1026 on Feb 29, 2024 21:27:52 GMT -5
Can't tell for sure but looks like Cipla (India's 3rd largest BP) never got acquired by Blackstone (or Torrent), and may now be looking at making acquisitions in the US according to a headline in EconomicTimes.
The MannKind slides from yesterday's excellent earnings report indicated India's CDSCO (equivalent to US FDA) will rule on Cipla's application to commercialize Afrezza in India. The speculation here has been the sale of Afrezza in India will largely serve to improve the unit cost of Afrezza by underwriting manufacturing (scale?).
If we assume 25K Afrezza users (and really don't know how many there are), if 1% of India's ~5M insulin-using persons with diabetes chose to use Afrezza, that would triple the existing Afrezza user base. If that happens, and Afrezza sales improve domestically, at some point, MNKD is going to need a bigger boat. i.e., larger manufacturing capacity. Hopefully, we'll get some insight to MNKD's thoughts on production capacity for Tyvaso DPI, Afrezza, Clofazamine, closer to 2025.
Maybe after years and years we will finally get the shareholders meeting in Danbury and can get a look at what the factory expansion looks like. Its been so long the last time I was there Receptor Life Sciences was the big thing and notices were posted about being a schedule 1 site. I would hope the new high speed fill/finish line for Tyvaso DPI would handle most demand and the area it was housed in would then free up space to backfill with for afrezza space if needed. Then again back in 2014 we thought afrezza's biggest issue would be keeping up with production demand and we had 3 lines. We should have listened to those in the know, who knew BP through the PBMs would limit afrezza to a niche product. I doubt we have any where near 25k users but this would be a more interesting number than 27% growth on Mike's slide. Bill from VDex was hoping to get to a 25k to 50k user base to get some respect with the ADA. Most users are T1s since they can get insurance coverage but only if they are MDI. We know we have about 1k scripts a week and 80% don't get the refill so 200 do so maybe we have 4k of them? Ginger V. might have a good guess at this number. The vast majority of T1s using afrezza are probably part time users who use it as a rescue tool. Maybe 5k of them who are paying for 1 box every 3 to 6 months. So maybe 10k full and part time users. The factory was built assuming millions. Seems like you and Bill from VDEX are buddies…cool. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Feb 29, 2024 23:23:20 GMT -5
Space for 9 more? I thought any additional expansion and they would be building out in the parking lot. Lets hope that ends up being the case and the parking lot is gone. Then we have a real happiness problem. If they do that I will need to leave my truck home for the ASM and take the wife's car. The observation I was sharing was from 9 or 10 years ago. I’ve no idea whatsoever what capacity at the plant looks like in terms of what they’re producing or what they’re even capable of producing. I’d actually like to know. I’ve always wondered what the business continuity plan looked like. I vaguely remember seeing stuff in some filing along time ago, and it may still be updated and/or carried forward and I just haven’t looked. I used to work on high-availability systems so capacity planning and disaster recovery are things I’m atuned to. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 1, 2024 8:04:20 GMT -5
Space for 9 more? I thought any additional expansion and they would be building out in the parking lot. Lets hope that ends up being the case and the parking lot is gone. Then we have a real happiness problem. If they do that I will need to leave my truck home for the ASM and take the wife's car. The observation I was sharing was from 9 or 10 years ago. I’ve no idea whatsoever what capacity at the plant looks like in terms of what they’re producing or what they’re even capable of producing. I’d actually like to know. I’ve always wondered what the business continuity plan looked like. I vaguely remember seeing stuff in some filing along time ago, and it may still be updated and/or carried forward and I just haven’t looked. I used to work on high-availability systems so capacity planning and disaster recovery are things I’m atuned to. Its been so long that I am very out of touch with what the factory looks like today. What I can tell you is the building was an old hat factory and some of the walls are very thick. At one point there was a mold issue where it was detected in the powder and after searching and searching for the source one of the engineers asked my opinion so I had the blueprints on my kitchen table. Who knows maybe in a couple of months we will have the ASM there and we can get some tours and see what it looks like. I would think since UTHR is in NC future expansion would be near the UTHR site for contingency purposes in addition to the footprint in Danbury being limited. |
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Post by longliner on Mar 1, 2024 9:59:57 GMT -5
The observation I was sharing was from 9 or 10 years ago. I’ve no idea whatsoever what capacity at the plant looks like in terms of what they’re producing or what they’re even capable of producing. I’d actually like to know. I’ve always wondered what the business continuity plan looked like. I vaguely remember seeing stuff in some filing along time ago, and it may still be updated and/or carried forward and I just haven’t looked. I used to work on high-availability systems so capacity planning and disaster recovery are things I’m atuned to. Its been so long that I am very out of touch with what the factory looks like today. What I can tell you is the building was an old hat factory and some of the walls are very thick. At one point there was a mold issue where it was detected in the powder and after searching and searching for the source one of the engineers asked my opinion so I had the blueprints on my kitchen table. Who knows maybe in a couple of months we will have the ASM there and we can get some tours and see what it looks like. I would think since UTHR is in NC future expansion would be near the UTHR site for contingency purposes in addition to the footprint in Danbury being limited. After seeing what Martine is building for growing organs, my assumption is the new DPI facility being built in NC will be one of the most modern fastest automated plants in the world. Production should ramp up much faster than had Martine simply built a clone of Danbury. This will be 20 years newer, faster, AI automated, it will be a whole new chapter. www.durhamchambered.org/news/united-therapeutics-to-build-500m-manufacturing-facility-in-rtp |
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