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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 2, 2023 10:06:09 GMT -5
Anybody have a theory why UTHR decided this quarter to reveal exactly the percent Mannkind makes? Low double digits, HA as Mannkind as shown several times they like to massage the truth. The LOWEST double digit looks to be the answer. Maybe there will be a surprise decrease in expenses. One can only hope. Hope was Bobby Knight's least favorite word. I don’t think we will know the percentage royalty on Tyvaso DPI until we see the royalty revenue reported next week. Up until recently we had to guess the Tyvaso DPI percentage of Tyvaso revenue and then guess at the “low double digits” on MNKD royalty for DPI. I’ve always assumed MNKD was not being cagey by saying “low double digits” but as forthright as their agreement with UTHR permitted. UTHR may have decided to report DPI this quarter because it’s become the dominant source of Tyvaso revenue and that could be considered “material information” for GAAP accounting. |
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Post by Clement on Nov 2, 2023 10:11:04 GMT -5
We don't have guidance but we do have average analyst estimate of $50.72M in revenues for Q3. Doable. Yesterday, ronw said $51.5M and shows how he got it. mnkd.proboards.com/post/257295/thread |
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Post by nemzter on Nov 2, 2023 10:12:09 GMT -5
We don't have guidance but we do have average analyst estimate of $50.72M in revenues for Q3. Doable. Yep, this is what I was referring to  Thanks! |
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Post by Clement on Nov 2, 2023 10:16:34 GMT -5
If we assume MNKD “collaborations and services” is proportional to UTHR “Cost of sales” QoQ, then we should expect about a 25% haircut QoQ of about $2.3M on 11,211. If we assume 10% MNKD royalties on UTHR Tyvaso DPI then Q2 royalties implies UTHR revenue on Tyvaso DPI of about $190M. That means Q3 revenue was about $15M more than Q2, so about an extra $1.5M in royalties to MNKD. The net would be about an $800K reduction in UTHR money to MNKD Q3 over Q2. My assumptions about MNKD “C&S” proportinal to UTHR COS and royalty percentages aren’t that good so there could be more royalties and “c&s” flat or even up moderately. Steven Binder and Mike both said “C&S” revenue would be relatively flat. I’ve assumed that would be roughly true, especially if a big piece of the “C&S” accounting was labor. I thought I remember UTHR suggesting $2B from Tyvaso within about 2 years of launch of DPI. I don’t know if the on-going UTHR trials for FDA approval of expanded indications for Tyvaso were part of that rosy prediction. If not, Q3 is a real puzzler. If yes, than go UTHR! This puts a spotlight on clofazamine and to some degree, Afrezza, to help cement substantial profitability for MNKD and let them be less dependent on UTHR revenue for shareholder value. Someone recently said “next year” is always “next year”. It reminds me of the movie The Money Pit where every project would be complete in “two weeks”. 2.3M more not less |
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Post by parrerob on Nov 2, 2023 10:25:06 GMT -5
So the big question - are we going to meet guidance for Q3, or are we pretty much screwed (not that we're not used to it already)? lol What guidance? There is no MNKD guidance nemzter.... The only comparison We can do is within the estimate done by 6 analysts (You can find it under Yahoo Finance page). For Q3 the medium estimate for earnings is 50,72 M$ (low estimate is 46,3 M$ and higher esitmate is 55,8 M$). According to what We can expect after UTHR results published We will post around 51 M$ so if this will be true We will follow exactely the analyst estimate for Q3. Not bad..... The expectation was high... also on this board I read about expectation of $60 million (Q3 rev.) and even some one posted about $600 million UTHR revenue for Tyvaso...... Closing Q3 with 51 M$ it will be a +5% against Q2 revenue ... 5% Quarter over quarter is not bad... Let's see next monday what about our revenue.... |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 2, 2023 11:39:14 GMT -5
If we assume MNKD “collaborations and services” is proportional to UTHR “Cost of sales” QoQ, then we should expect about a 25% haircut QoQ of about $2.3M on 11,211. If we assume 10% MNKD royalties on UTHR Tyvaso DPI then Q2 royalties implies UTHR revenue on Tyvaso DPI of about $190M. That means Q3 revenue was about $15M more than Q2, so about an extra $1.5M in royalties to MNKD. The net would be about an $800K reduction in UTHR money to MNKD Q3 over Q2. My assumptions about MNKD “C&S” proportinal to UTHR COS and royalty percentages aren’t that good so there could be more royalties and “c&s” flat or even up moderately. Steven Binder and Mike both said “C&S” revenue would be relatively flat. I’ve assumed that would be roughly true, especially if a big piece of the “C&S” accounting was labor. I thought I remember UTHR suggesting $2B from Tyvaso within about 2 years of launch of DPI. I don’t know if the on-going UTHR trials for FDA approval of expanded indications for Tyvaso were part of that rosy prediction. If not, Q3 is a real puzzler. If yes, than go UTHR! This puts a spotlight on clofazamine and to some degree, Afrezza, to help cement substantial profitability for MNKD and let them be less dependent on UTHR revenue for shareholder value. Someone recently said “next year” is always “next year”. It reminds me of the movie The Money Pit where every project would be complete in “two weeks”. 2.3M more not less I think UTHR COS was down by 25%. Good for them, possibly bad for MNKD (but its opaque unless you know of a breakdown for UTHR COS). |
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Post by cjc04 on Nov 2, 2023 11:57:34 GMT -5
Can someone help me understand how DPI has 2 incredible quarters of growth in a row, and then goes almost flat with less than 6% growth? After all the talk from both companies regarding the overwhelming demand!! What confuses me even more, was all the talk about MNKD’s HUGE production increase for the 3rd quarter. Where did it all go?  ?? Why didn’t it show up in UTHR’s COS Does this mean we do NOT get paid for manufacturing when it leaves the dock, which was speculated here, and we’ll see a massive deferred revenue number? I absolutely feel like CB with the ball being pulled out again! I should learn my lesson, but I loaded up on options for this 3q report thinking it was a no brainer and we were ready to break out to the next trading range over $6. I modeled it based on November of 2020 and November of 2022. 🙈 |
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 2, 2023 12:11:59 GMT -5
Anybody have a theory why UTHR decided this quarter to reveal exactly the percent Mannkind makes? Low double digits, HA as Mannkind as shown several times they like to massage the truth. The LOWEST double digit looks to be the answer. There was a limit to how long UTHR could get away without revealing the royalty rate. It was nothing to do with MNKD and everything to do with pressure from the analysts covering UTHR. The analysts need to be able to model the revenue stream and without the numbers it was harder than necessary, and no company wants to upset the analysts covering them. Regardless, there comes a point where you can work out the numbers reasonably accurately anyway with a bit of work (something the analysts like to avoid) so the secrecy had run it's course. |
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Post by MnkdWASmyRtrmntPlan on Nov 2, 2023 12:37:00 GMT -5
Can someone help me understand how DPI has 2 incredible quarters of growth in a row, and then goes almost flat with less than 6% growth? After all the talk from both companies regarding the overwhelming demand!! What confuses me even more, was all the talk about MNKD’s HUGE production increase for the 3rd quarter. Where did it all go? ?? Why didn’t it show up in UTHR’s COS Does this mean we do NOT get paid for manufacturing when it leaves the dock, which was speculated here, and we’ll see a massive deferred revenue number? I absolutely feel like CB with the ball being pulled out again! I should learn my lesson, but I loaded up on options for this 3q report thinking it was a no brainer and we were ready to break out to the next trading range over $6. I modeled it based on November of 2020 and November of 2022. 🙈 I recall Mike saying (in one of his recent talks) there would be a production increase in 3rd Qtr, and then he said it will "really" go up in Q4.Anyone else remember that? |
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 2, 2023 13:16:36 GMT -5
“I recall Mike saying” - uh oh, be careful with that!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Nov 2, 2023 13:19:19 GMT -5
I don’t remember that but that’s not to say he didn’t say it. There was some ambiguity about all of the things MannKind was doing and in the timing of when those improvements in capacity would come online. I remember it was said that pharmacies needed more to meet inventory obligations which would be above and beyond simple patient demand, but no idea how much was needed or when that would have been completed. Based on the moderate improvement ($15M) in Tyvaso DPI revenue QoQ, I suspect patient demand may have started to plateau. Just speculation on my part.
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Post by Clement on Nov 3, 2023 8:04:39 GMT -5
We don't have guidance but we do have average analyst estimate of $50.72M in revenues for Q3. Doable. Yesterday, ronw said $51.5M and shows how he got it. mnkd.proboards.com/post/257295/threadQ3 2022 revs totalled $25.47M. If we hit the average analyst estimate for Q3 2023, that's almost 2X a year ago! |
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Post by bthomas55ep on Nov 3, 2023 8:52:29 GMT -5
We don't have guidance but we do have average analyst estimate of $50.72M in revenues for Q3. Doable. Yesterday, ronw said $51.5M and shows how he got it. mnkd.proboards.com/post/257295/threadQ3 2022 revs totalled $25.47M. If we hit the average analyst estimate for Q3 2023, that's almost 2X a year ago! 2X from a year ago will be great. Only $1 to $2M above Q2 is what I think will disappoint the market $50M Q2 to $51-$52M Q3 with Afrezza being flat at best. Definitely keeping a longer term outlook and will buy more shares if the price dips well into the 3's, but I'm not going to like it (or tell my wife)... |
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Post by akemp3000 on Nov 3, 2023 9:19:40 GMT -5
Yep. Spot on. Still waiting on that I told you so moment. It's been quite a roller coaster during all those years mentioned but those were filled with so many unknowns most of which have now been put to rest. The plan certainly appears to be coming together now with profitability, pediatric approval, pipeline expansion and more just around the corner. The day we've all been waiting on is no longer the distant dream it once was.
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Post by cretin11 on Nov 3, 2023 9:23:47 GMT -5
Q3 2022 revs totalled $25.47M. If we hit the average analyst estimate for Q3 2023, that's almost 2X a year ago will buy more shares if the price dips well into the 3's, but I'm not going to like it (or tell my wife)... Haha, yes the “buying more shares but not telling spouse” has been a theme on this message board going back at least seven or eight years. All of us who’ve done it figured “soon I’ll tell them, once our share price goes back up to _____, which should only be a year or two.” Now I can’t wait to say “those MNKD shares I bought back in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, I didn’t mention it then but KNEW it was a great investment decision and now look how smart I was all along!” Was hoping 2023 would be that phenomenal year, oh well. We can remember what the Brooklyn Dodgers fans would say after every season… |
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Thanks!
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