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Post by caesar on Jan 12, 2024 8:27:09 GMT -5
Think Midcap and Convertible Note. They are "Shorting the Sh*t out of MNKD PPS"!
Mannkind management gambled on getting preferred interest rate knowing full well that once the prime changed (going up) these entities will need to short the stock to break even and make a PROFIT.
Their narrative is that the PPS is severely undervalued (TRUE),but fail to mention that the differential between the current stock price and what it should/could actually be is being skimmed off by the entities that gave Mannkind "CHEAP" money (loans). It's the way so to speak, when a company is taken to the woodshed, and no going concern is willing to play other than United.
Once these loans are serviced the PPS will not only reflect actual value but will hopefully/maybe reflect the significant growth in revenue.
Mike C, the management team and the board of directors never expected the medical community (including BIG PHARMA) to be so determined to marginalize Afrezza. Thus, the pivot to drugs in the pipeline that have viability, limited competitors and will generate boatloads of money.
Afrezza will be limited to the Type 1 marketplace, and that will not materialize until Afrezza becomes part of the Gold Standard for treating Type 1 diabetic patients (mainly children).
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 12, 2024 8:39:54 GMT -5
Think Midcap and Convertible Note. They are "Shorting the Sh*t out of MNKD PPS"! Mannkind management gambled on getting preferred interest rate knowing full well that once the prime changed (going up) these entities will need to short the stock to break even and make a PROFIT. Their narrative is that the PPS is severely undervalued (TRUE),but fail to mention that the differential between the current stock price and what it should/could actually be is being skimmed off by the entities that gave Mannkind "CHEAP" money (loans). It's the way so to speak, when a company is taken to the woodshed, and no going concern is willing to play other than United. Once these loans are serviced the PPS will not only reflect actual value but will hopefully/maybe reflect the significant growth in revenue. Mike C, the management team and the board of directors never expected the medical community (including BIG PHARMA) to be so determined to marginalize Afrezza. Thus, the pivot to drugs in the pipeline that have viability, limited competitors and will generate boatloads of money. Afrezza will be limited to the Type 1 marketplace, and that will not materialize until Afrezza becomes part of the Gold Standard for treating Type 1 diabetic patients (mainly children). Really excellent post. Thank you. |
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Post by uvula on Jan 12, 2024 9:15:09 GMT -5
Wouldn't Midcap make even more money if mnkd stock price went up a lot?
Are they shorting because the price was already low, or is the price low because they were shorting?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 12, 2024 10:21:41 GMT -5
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jan 12, 2024 11:08:53 GMT -5
So mymann is an admitted liar. So that brings into question the validity of any mymann post. Something to keep in mind when reading future mymann posts. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 12, 2024 11:15:45 GMT -5
Wouldn't Midcap make even more money if mnkd stock price went up a lot? Are they shorting because the price was already low, or is the price low because they were shorting? Good questions. I have the same ones.
I believe agedhippie and anderson and another new poster whose name I forget did a good analysis (in the Sagard cash raise thread?) of the debt covenants, and in that analysis it was explained that although MNKD can retire the $230M in convertible bonds as soon as March 2024, there are preconditions on share price and time. e.g., price above X for Y days, but it's more complicated than that.
Based on that I've assumed a depressed share price could prevent retirement of the debt until closer to, or at maturity in December 2026 (IIRC).
The post from caesar resonated with me because it states what I think everyone should acknowledge which is MNKD is in excellent financial shape and it is reasonable to have confidence it will even improve.
That said, I assume shorting can be used to manipulate the share price and keep the debt as debt until such time as the debt holders choose, or until maturity. Toxic but that's the result of having to capitalize from a position of weakness. Watch what debt terms look like when MNKD is debt free, increasingly profitable, and in possession of an enviable Future Cash Flow (FCF).
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 12, 2024 11:20:30 GMT -5
Wouldn't Midcap make even more money if mnkd stock price went up a lot? Are they shorting because the price was already low, or is the price low because they were shorting? Shorting isn't the problem, MidCap could short this regardless because the conversion price is far higher than the current price. The Foundation could short because their strike price is a long way below the current price. The far bigger problem is the fact that the debt is convertible which introduces the risk of dilution. As long as that possibility exists this creates an overhang and the share price will be reduced to account for the possibility of a flood of extra shares diluting the EPS. The degree to which the share price is reduced depends on the probability of the conversion being exercised - think of it like option pricing. Having said that, if MidCap wanted to exercise their conversion rights they may well short in the run up to the conversion in order to lock in a sale price as once they exercise their option the share price will drop and they want to have sold before that happens. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 12, 2024 11:47:25 GMT -5
... Mike C, the management team and the board of directors never expected the medical community (including BIG PHARMA) to be so determined to marginalize Afrezza. Thus, the pivot to drugs in the pipeline that have viability, limited competitors and will generate boatloads of money. ... If they expected to simply launch and everyone would rush to adopt it they were being extremely naive. Sanofi was probably the best BP partner since their RAA, Apidra, was a distant third in the RAA race and they would happily cannibalize it's sales for a blockbuster. What happened though was that nobody knew how to dose it, the strength conversion on the label was misleading, and almost nobody cared about it's launch USP (no needles.) Sanofi hit a second block which was insurance this was entirely predictable since it had happened to them before with Apidra. A bit of history; back around 2012 you could get your insurance would cover pretty much all insulins equally, and then Lilly did a deal to bundle their drugs which meant that overnight you could only get Humalog from most insurers. Subsequently Novo Nordisk and Lilly have used bundling to get exclusivity on insulin - whether you get Novolog or Humalog depends entirely on your PBM (this was deeply annoying as I find Novolog better lost it when that deal went through.) Having seen Sanofi, one of them, fail the PBMs couldn't care less about Afrezza since Mannkind has never addressed the block that stopped Sanofi, chiefly the lack of a data driven compelling case to convince doctors and compel coverage. Afrezza's sales are literally less than the weekly fluctuations of the major insulins - that's not what a threat! I entirely agree with your last sentence, and Mike stated this in the Morgan Stanley conference; the pivot to orphan drugs opens the way to low competition/high value markets. Once that is in place, and that means completing phase 3 trials, the share price will start to rise driven by those drugs. Absent that I think the stock is range bound since the market thinks it has a handle on what the Tyvaso DPI sales will look like into the future, and the best that pediatric approval is likely to do is double the Afrezza market based on MNKD's own slides from the JPM conference. |
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Post by porkini on Jan 12, 2024 11:53:13 GMT -5
... Mike C, the management team and the board of directors never expected the medical community (including BIG PHARMA) to be so determined to marginalize Afrezza. Thus, the pivot to drugs in the pipeline that have viability, limited competitors and will generate boatloads of money. ... If they expected to simply launch and everyone would rush to adopt it they were being extremely naive. Sanofi was probably the best BP partner since their RAA, Apidra, was a distant third in the RAA race and they would happily cannibalize it's sales for a blockbuster. What happened though was that nobody knew how to dose it, the strength conversion on the label was misleading, and almost nobody cared about it's launch USP (no needles.) Sanofi hit a second block which was insurance this was entirely predictable since it had happened to them before with Apidra. A bit of history; back around 2012 you could get your insurance would cover pretty much all insulins equally, and then Lilly did a deal to bundle their drugs which meant that overnight you could only get Humalog from most insurers. Subsequently Novo Nordisk and Lilly have used bundling to get exclusivity on insulin - whether you get Novolog or Humalog depends entirely on your PBM (this was deeply annoying as I find Novolog better lost it when that deal went through.) Having seen Sanofi, one of them, fail the PBMs couldn't care less about Afrezza since Mannkind has never addressed the block that stopped Sanofi, chiefly the lack of a data driven compelling case to convince doctors and compel coverage. Afrezza's sales are literally less than the weekly fluctuations of the major insulins - that's not what a threat! I entirely agree with your last sentence, and Mike stated this in the Morgan Stanley conference; the pivot to orphan drugs opens the way to low competition/high value markets. Once that is in place, and that means completing phase 3 trials, the share price will start to rise driven by those drugs. Absent that I think the stock is range bound since the market thinks it has a handle on what the Tyvaso DPI sales will look like into the future, and the best that pediatric approval is likely to do is double the Afrezza market based on MNKD's own slides from the JPM conference. There was also the case of Sanofi bringing in a new executive who was fresh off of the Exubera experience, just saying that may have had something to do with it also. |
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Post by wmdhunt on Jan 12, 2024 12:28:37 GMT -5
With PED approval looking like April of 2025, at the earliest) MNKD will take another nap I'm sorry to say. So many struggles and our lenders shorting the stock every chance they get, what can MNKD possibly do? It seemed the Morgan Stanley thingy was only attended by 2 or 3 actual humans. The applause was obviously only a couple of folks. So disappointing.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jan 12, 2024 13:22:34 GMT -5
Why worry and grumble about it ... just BUY ALL THE CHEAP SHARES YOU CAN !!!
Then you can put a GTC sell order at $5 or higher ... so easy and you can buy a new home in a flash.
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 12, 2024 13:28:12 GMT -5
With PED approval looking like April of 2025, at the earliest) MNKD will take another nap I'm sorry to say. So many struggles and our lenders shorting the stock every chance they get, what can MNKD possibly do? It seemed the Morgan Stanley thingy was only attended by 2 or 3 actual humans. The applause was obviously only a couple of folks. So disappointing. "take another nap" is an interesting choice of words. I guess anybody could have rescued MNKD from bankruptcy and make them profitable (marginally) in 7 years. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 12, 2024 13:31:06 GMT -5
There was also the case of Sanofi bringing in a new executive who was fresh off of the Exubera experience, just saying that may have had something to do with it also. I can easily see that. In any internal debate his position is going to be that it couldn't be done with Exubera so why should Afrezza be any different if the premise is selling on "no needles" - prejudice won. |
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Post by letitride on Jan 12, 2024 13:45:21 GMT -5
The only quick solution is M&A. As the price drops and the stability and potential continue to evolve the threat of either to short positions becomes more real. Mike has optionality and with the closing of the most recent deal should not be ruled out. I to have optionality and at these prices am looking how to best use them.
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 12, 2024 13:45:22 GMT -5
With PED approval looking like April of 2025, at the earliest) MNKD will take another nap I'm sorry to say. So many struggles and our lenders shorting the stock every chance they get, what can MNKD possibly do? It seemed the Morgan Stanley thingy was only attended by 2 or 3 actual humans. The applause was obviously only a couple of folks. So disappointing. One of the best serial startup CEOs I knew said that success is about remaining in business until you get your lucky break - in this case that was Tyvaso DPI |
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