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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 6, 2023 12:02:16 GMT -5
Unfortunately that's a bit like rooting for the Pats right now. It's different when you're an actual shareholder BD, more like a Packers fan.  Packers looked pretty good last Sunday. Just sayin. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 6, 2023 12:05:14 GMT -5
No, just wondering if you would still root for your nieces soccer team if they get down a few points.  Arghh, this is getting too hypothetical. MNKD is not a family member of mine, more like a long-time acquaintance. I'm still rooting for MNKD, just not putting any more money into it than I've already lost... You only lost if you sold at a loss. MTOI says shares are still cheap so up to you if you want to get in on the "fun" (where I can't write "fun" without wincing a little). |
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Post by longliner on Dec 6, 2023 12:58:17 GMT -5
Or knew it was likely and perhaps engaged in pump-and-dump. Not that I'm paranoid or anything, but the ex-convict Martin Shkreli promoting LQDA always made me leery. Today's pop and drop has the scent of Shkreli about it. |
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Post by cretin11 on Dec 6, 2023 12:59:26 GMT -5
longliner what username do you go by on StockTwits? I've never posted on another board. Only one username. Thanks. Some of us thought your posts resembled one or more posters on ST, wondered which one(s) you were but we were apparently mistaken there. |
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Post by longliner on Dec 6, 2023 13:05:52 GMT -5
I've never posted on another board. Only one username. Thanks. Some of us thought your posts resembled one or more posters on ST, wondered which one(s) you were but we were apparently mistaken there. Well, I read it to much, which probably explains it...... No boards with twit in the name, (or otherwise), nothing that starts with Face. Musk and Zuck don't need my money or support. |
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Post by anderson on Dec 6, 2023 13:14:48 GMT -5
I think its that simple. We have to wait for the decision and then we will know. I have read what you have posted on this and that you have given LQDA an 80% chance of winning. If after listening at the 2:10 mark you don't want to adjust that down a bit seems a bit surprising. If you have lost one judge maybe you have 2. Two out of three seems like 66%. To be honest, UTHR is not that interesting to me. Right now they serve a useful purpose by paying the bills and extending the runway. Mike better figure out how to sell afrezza and needs to take a shot at the GLP1 market. Waiting for the decision is the way to go, but in the interval we can speculate. It's always fun seeing if you can get the outcome right.  If you lose one judge that's not a 66% chance of success, that's a majority verdict and 100%. Even if it wasn't the case 66% is a gross over simplification since no judge is 100% certain to vote either way so it never comes to a 66% chance hence I think 80% is more realistic. I agree with you about UTHR in that this is a problem for UTHR, but everyone here seems pretty convinced LQDA is not going to get a big share. So 10% of a small share is lost, is that a big deal? If one Judge is already voting for UTHR then you only need 1 more judge to agree. Thus statistically there is a 75% chance of UTHR winning the case since there are only 2 other judges the decisions can be UU, UL, LU, or LL. As you can see there are 3 cases where U gets at least one and only one where L gets both. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 6, 2023 14:53:49 GMT -5
Is it really a 50% chance?
Using Anderson's notation and assuming three judgements, there are eight possible voting outcomes:
UUU, UUL, ULU, LUU, LLU, LUL, ULL, LLL
UUU and LLL are unanimous and an even 50/50 split.
UUL, ULU, LUU, LLU, LUL, ULL are also all split decisions with 3 for UTHR and 3 for LQDA.
Now presuming one of those decisions (and I would presume one U already based on the one judge's reaction during oral arguments) than the other two judges will vote as Anderson described in which case it is a 75% chance U will win. ;-)
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Post by ktim on Dec 6, 2023 15:02:23 GMT -5
Arghh, this is getting too hypothetical. MNKD is not a family member of mine, more like a long-time acquaintance. I'm still rooting for MNKD, just not putting any more money into it than I've already lost... You only lost if you sold at a loss. MTOI says shares are still cheap so up to you if you want to get in on the "fun" (where I can't write "fun" without wincing a little). I'm now profitable in MNKD precisely because I did sell a majority (all except retirement account holdings) at a loss... and then repurchased considerably cheaper. And if one has to declare their net worth on some sort of financial form, you'd better consider that financially you have taken a loss on stocks that have gone down, even if from a psychological standpoint you may not recognize any loss. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 6, 2023 15:11:49 GMT -5
Thanks. Some of us thought your posts resembled one or more posters on ST, wondered which one(s) you were but we were apparently mistaken there. Well, I read it to much, which probably explains it...... No boards with twit in the name, (or otherwise), nothing that starts with Face. Musk and Zuck don't need my money or support. 👍🏻 That’s too funny. ( Nothing with twit in it. ) there’s a twit on StockTwits that’s pretty well-known. |
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Post by ktim on Dec 6, 2023 15:13:44 GMT -5
Is it really a 50% chance? Using Anderson's notation and assuming three judgements, there are eight possible voting outcomes: UUU, UUL, ULU, LUU, LLU, LUL, ULL, LLL UUU and LLL are unanimous and an even 50/50 split. UUL, ULU, LUU, LLU, LUL, ULL are also all split decisions with 3 for UTHR and 3 for LQDA. Now presuming one of those decisions (and I would presume one U already based on the one judge's reaction during oral arguments) than the other two judges will vote as Anderson described in which case it is a 75% chance U will win. ;-) If the judges were flipping coins and one has already been observed to have flipped their coin and it landed on U, then I agree with your analysis. |
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Post by longliner on Dec 6, 2023 20:11:30 GMT -5
Thanks. Some of us thought your posts resembled one or more posters on ST, wondered which one(s) you were but we were apparently mistaken there. Well, I read it to much, which probably explains it...... No boards with twit in the name, (or otherwise), nothing that starts with Face. Musk and Zuck don't need my money or support. Just curious cretin, who's in your little group of friends? And what are their aliases on the ST? |
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Post by cretin11 on Dec 6, 2023 21:35:55 GMT -5
Well, I read it to much, which probably explains it...... No boards with twit in the name, (or otherwise), nothing that starts with Face. Musk and Zuck don't need my money or support. Just curious cretin, who's in your little group of friends? And what are their aliases on the ST? LOL, thanks for your interest, we’ll review your application. Things are busy so don’t fret if it takes a while, you understand… |
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Post by longliner on Dec 6, 2023 22:17:04 GMT -5
No biggie, we'll just leave you and yours under HFM. It was a rhetorical question, I didn't anticipate a honest answer from you.. The outcome of this trial may be a sentinel event in UTHR's actions going forward. There is a lot at stake for all the players in the Tyvaso DPI vs Yutrepia trial / saga! |
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Post by longliner on Dec 7, 2023 13:07:32 GMT -5
The longer it takes for the court to decide the outcome should favor one party over the other. I believe a quick decision would have probably been in LQDA's favor.... I see from the articles hitting the wire that LQDA is throwing everything they have at UTHR to influence public opinion regarding the case. Haven't heard from Aged in a bit, maybe he's busy scribbling articles in support of UTHR.  |
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Post by Clement on Dec 7, 2023 14:10:49 GMT -5
The longer it takes for the court to decide the outcome should favor one party over the other. I believe a quick decision would have probably been in LQDA's favor.... I see from the articles hitting the wire that LQDA is throwing everything they have at UTHR to influence public opinion regarding the case. Haven't heard from Aged in a bit, maybe he's busy scribbling articles in support of UTHR. Interesting in the face of wyattdog's post in the UTHR thread: United Therapeutics Named by Newsweek as One of America’s Most Responsible Companies 2024 6:00 AM ET, 12/07/2023 - Business Wire SILVER SPRING, Md. & RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 7, 2023--United Therapeutics (Nasdaq: UTHR), a public benefit corporation, today announced that the company has been named on Newsweek’s list of America’s Most Responsible Companies 2024. This award is presented by Newsweek and Statista Inc., the world-leading statistics portal and industry ranking provider. The list of awards was announced on December 6, 2023, is available on Newsweek’s website, and recognizes the top 600 most responsible companies in the United States, spanning 14 industries. |
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