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Post by mytakeonit on Sept 14, 2023 21:17:37 GMT -5
I think that tomorrow will be a GOOD DAY for MNKD ... and me. Hope everyone is loaded up with all the cheap shares they can find !!!
But, that's mytakeonit
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Post by hellodolly on Sept 15, 2023 6:23:49 GMT -5
Excluding Clofazamine, PEDS increases and the ALL important IPF, the foregoing points to 2025 revenue approaching $500 million. We just realized $100M for 2022. Getting another $312M to reach a total revenue of $412M in Tyvaso, DPI by the end of 2025 (10 more quarters), plus the $80M in Afrezza requires what growth rate to get to $492M total revenue?
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Post by neil36 on Sept 15, 2023 6:44:08 GMT -5
Excluding Clofazamine, PEDS increases and the ALL important IPF, the foregoing points to 2025 revenue approaching $500 million. We just realized $100M for 2022. Getting another $312M to reach a total revenue of $412M in Tyvaso, DPI by the end of 2025 (10 more quarters), plus the $80M in Afrezza requires what growth rate to get to $492M total revenue? Going from $100m to $412m in two and a half years equates to a 76% growth rate |
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Post by hellodolly on Sept 15, 2023 6:50:09 GMT -5
Excluding Clofazamine, PEDS increases and the ALL important IPF, the foregoing points to 2025 revenue approaching $500 million. We just realized $100M for 2022. Getting another $312M to reach a total revenue of $412M in Tyvaso, DPI by the end of 2025 (10 more quarters), plus the $80M in Afrezza requires what growth rate to get to $492M total revenue? Going from $100m to $412m in two and a half years equates to a 76% growth rate So, with 10 quarters left until the end of 2025. Average of 7.6% growth per quarter seems very fair and possible? Thank you Neil. |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Sept 15, 2023 8:21:07 GMT -5
Going from $100m to $412m in two and a half years equates to a 76% growth rate So, with 10 quarters left until the end of 2025. Average of 7.6% growth per quarter seems very fair and possible? Thank you Neil. Hellodolly, your 7.6% calculations are off. First, it would be compounded quarterly so this number would likely be around 6% quarterly, but no time now to get an actual value. Secondly, from 100 M to $400 M, that's 400% growth, so not sure what the 76% meant. In any case, projections are fine, but let's not count the chicken before they hatch, or as they say in Europe, don't sell the skin of the bear in the forest. |
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Post by hellodolly on Sept 15, 2023 9:11:20 GMT -5
So, with 10 quarters left until the end of 2025. Average of 7.6% growth per quarter seems very fair and possible? Thank you Neil. Hellodolly, your 7.6% calculations are off. First, it would be compounded quarterly so this number would likely be around 6% quarterly, but no time now to get an actual value. Secondly, from 100 M to $400 M, that's 400% growth, so not sure what the 76% meant. In any case, projections are fine, but let's not count the chicken before they hatch, or as they say in Europe, don't sell the skin of the bear in the forest. I did a simple divisor of 76%/10 quarters to get an average growth of 7.6%. That's not far-fetched and based on the outline provided by others. I realize we're only doing projections, but didn't think nobody else was unaware? You believe a growth of ~7% is not realistic? |
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Post by neil36 on Sept 15, 2023 9:25:03 GMT -5
The 76% is the annual growth rate required to go from 100 to 412 in two and a half years.
Quarterly growth would need to be just a tad over 15% (quarter over quarter) for ten consecutive quarters. Here is what that would look like:
1. 115
2. 132.25
3. 152.08
4. 174.90
5. 201.13
6. 231.30
7. 266.00
8. 305.90
9. 351.78
10. 404.55
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Post by Clement on Sept 15, 2023 12:56:38 GMT -5
The 76% is the annual growth rate required to go from 100 to 412 in two and a half years. Quarterly growth would need to be just a tad over 15% (quarter over quarter) for ten consecutive quarters. Here is what that would look like: 1. 115 2. 132.25 3. 152.08 4. 174.90 5. 201.13 6. 231.30 7. 266.00 8. 305.90 9. 351.78 10. 404.55 Neil is right. You can figure this out with logarithms (thank you John Napier). I got 15.142465% growth per quarter. But to HD's point, considering what's going on with TDPI, this is doable! |
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Post by Clement on Sept 15, 2023 13:26:27 GMT -5
... Clofazamine has a “high probability of success”. [Previously MKND said the market was ~100,000 in the U.S. and ~100,000 in Japan. Every 1,000 patients on Clofazamine will generate $100 million in annual revenues to MNKD.] ...Hi Ronw, I love the optimism. I think that one scenario is a little too optimistic, though. 100,000 patients in both US and Japan is 200,000. If every 1,000 patients generated $100,000,000 in annual revenue, that would be $100,000 for each patient and the calculation would be 200 x $100,000,000 = $20,000,000,000 (AKA $20 Billion). Maybe I'm wrong, but that seems like a little too much to dream for. I think $100,000/year would be a little too much for that Rx. But, I hope I'm wrong. I don't feel so bad when insurance companies are footing the bill. IDK about clofazimine but price of OFEV (nintedanib) is $13,168 per month. That's over $150,000 per patient per year if they get to take it that long. "The cost for Ofev oral capsule 100 mg is around $13,168 for a supply of 60 capsules, depending on the pharmacy you visit. Quoted prices are for cash-paying customers and are not valid with insurance plans." www.drugs.com/price-guide/ofev |
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Post by cedafuntennis on Sept 16, 2023 0:56:59 GMT -5
Hellodolly, your 7.6% calculations are off. First, it would be compounded quarterly so this number would likely be around 6% quarterly, but no time now to get an actual value. Secondly, from 100 M to $400 M, that's 400% growth, so not sure what the 76% meant. In any case, projections are fine, but let's not count the chicken before they hatch, or as they say in Europe, don't sell the skin of the bear in the forest. I did a simple divisor of 76%/10 quarters to get an average growth of 7.6%. That's not far-fetched and based on the outline provided by others. I realize we're only doing projections, but didn't think nobody else was unaware? You believe a growth of ~7% is not realistic? oh, I certainly believe 7 - 9% per quarter is doable. My comment was only about the math. I think over the next 2-4 years we'll make our present annual income in a quarter. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Sept 27, 2023 14:58:39 GMT -5
I did a simple divisor of 76%/10 quarters to get an average growth of 7.6%. That's not far-fetched and based on the outline provided by others. I realize we're only doing projections, but didn't think nobody else was unaware? You believe a growth of ~7% is not realistic? oh, I certainly believe 7 - 9% per quarter is doable. My comment was only about the math. I think over the next 2-4 years we'll make our present annual income in a quarter. So based on everything we know about Tyvaso DPI and approval for additional indications, the slow growth of Afrezza sales (maybe a modest increase of 10-20% YoY on the existing trend post-pediatric trial results?) and your estimated "present annual income in a quarter", does our annual income for 2026 likely pass $1B? |
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