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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 6, 2024 9:56:42 GMT -5
For afrezza to be realized we can't just keep doing the same thing over and over. Mike's 20% afrezza growth chart sounds great but 20% of nothing is nothing. What did the pps close at yesterday $3.25. That decimal point can easily be moved to the right at least one position but probably two in a couple of years. Good post until that last sentence. We would need drastic changes at MNKD to dream of that. Even if we got such changes, your decimal point projection is fantasy even beyond the MTOI level (never thought I’d miss his fantastic predictions but kinda do). OK - I will sound like a broken record one more time. To get to the $325 only takes 2 things 1. afrezza to be SoC and properly priced 2. Saxenda DPI approved and properly priced Thats it - these would be the two leading drugs in the two biggest markets and as our president says "That's no joke" |
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 6, 2024 10:09:57 GMT -5
Ok but you said “That decimal point can easily be moved to the right at least one position but probably two in a couple of years.”
What you’re speculating isn’t easy and isn’t possible within a couple of years. But I always appreciate your outside the box and creative perspective on things. Keeps things moving on this otherwise moribund (lately although for good reason) message board, so thank you for that!
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 6, 2024 10:31:47 GMT -5
Ok but you said “That decimal point can easily be moved to the right at least one position but probably two in a couple of years.” What you’re speculating isn’t easy and isn’t possible within a couple of years. But I always appreciate your outside the box and creative perspective on things. Keeps things moving on this otherwise moribund (lately although for good reason) message board, so thank you for that! If I am correct it is easy. This is not hard. We already have afrezza. We just need to change the marketing plan. One really easy option is Mike can call Mark Cuban today and sell direct. Thats really easy. Victoza is already off patent. In the back room where Mike found clfozamine on the bottom shelf, on the top shelf was the Phase 1 GLP1 DPI work already done. Victoza/Saxenda will work great but we need to do the trials. The issue is what Calley Means discussed and the power BP has and IMO that Mike does not want to disrupt things. As long as thats the game plan we will sit around $5. |
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Post by cretin11 on Feb 6, 2024 11:34:14 GMT -5
OK yes, if you are correct then it is easy, fair enough there. And agreed, calling Mark Cuban should indeed be really easy.
But why on earth would Mike "not want to disrupt things" - Isn't that exactly what the CEO of a struggling small pharma company should be trying to do? It makes no sense that if it really is so easy, the hesitancy would be due to not wanting to disrupt things. I'm no fan of Mike's performance (aged was quite generous IMO to call it "mediocre"), but even I don't think he's that daft. I don't think it is THAT easy.
(Also, while I agree how sad it would be to "sit around $5" given our potential, in fact it would take a 50% bump in share price to be there.)
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 6, 2024 14:30:02 GMT -5
OK yes, if you are correct then it is easy, fair enough there. And agreed, calling Mark Cuban should indeed be really easy. But why on earth would Mike "not want to disrupt things" - Isn't that exactly what the CEO of a struggling small pharma company should be trying to do? It makes no sense that if it really is so easy, the hesitancy would be due to not wanting to disrupt things. I'm no fan of Mike's performance (aged was quite generous IMO to call it "mediocre"), but even I don't think he's that daft. I don't think it is THAT easy. (Also, while I agree how sad it would be to "sit around $5" given our potential, in fact it would take a 50% bump in share price to be there.) Mike should have Cuban's info. Getting hold of Cuban is not an issue if Mike wants to go that way. Maybe he wants to go direct. I don't care as long as its priced so nearly all can pay out of pocket. The advantage with Cuban is he will provide a ton of earned advertising at no cost. The disadvantage is Mike may not like the pricing model. As far as Mike not wanting to disrupt things several things are at play. 1. Prior to MNKD Mike has never been a CEO. I don't think he even ever founded his own snackbar and made payroll let alone play with the big dogs in pharma 2. Mike's main focus for the last 6 years was just trying to find enough money to keep the lights on. 3. Every time Mike has tried some thing with afrezza he has failed. The flying hamburger, four re-launches of the sales force; putting V-Go in the reps bags thinking it would help afrezza sales, Dave Kendall slipping out the back jack, just to name a few. 4. I don't think Mike understood three things need to change for afrezza to sell; label; SoC; and cost. Fixing one or two is not going to do it. 5. I suspect the big one is BP told him to stay in his lane. Mike would need to tell us but I doubt he will. Developing things like clofazimine DPI which BP is not interested is OK but messing with $100B industry is a non-starter. BP will once again go after MNKD and try and bankrupt the company. Right now there is $300M in the bank and Tyvaso DPI is paying the bills. Mike has little pressure right now. Swinging for the fences with afrezza and Saxenda DPI could very well be a grand slam but he could bankrupt MNKD if BP comes after us. Right now he seems OK sacrifice bunting. I did find this interesting in the Calley Means interview where he talks about Pharma commercials. If Calley is correct it explains the flying hamburger commercial and why it was put together the way it was and why it was such a failure. This was a typical BP commercial which Calley says have no intent on selling product to the consumer. Here is an extract of the interview and I think Calley could very well be correct BTW - if you have not noticed for the last number of years the pps range is roughly buy at $3.50 and sell at $5.50. It will be back at $5. |
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Post by ktim on Feb 6, 2024 14:48:26 GMT -5
One last point and then I will stop sounding like the broken record on why afrezza's price needs to be reduced to around $35. The $35 price is what MNKD is already selling it on Medicare for so this is not something new. If I remember correctly Mike was so excited about the script increase from Medicare but it requires that crazy pre auth process. How much MNKD is making from this and who is getting paid with this PBM scheme maybe Aged can explain. MNKD is also already selling for $100 commercially but you need 3 denials from insurance to get it. This is crazy too and few doctors want to do the paperwork. I have no idea what happened to the $99 deal but I would sure like Mike to explain this one. So by your logic, I suppose LQDA should offer $35 price when Yutrepia is approved so they can conquer their BP competitor? |
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Post by ktim on Feb 6, 2024 14:52:44 GMT -5
Good post until that last sentence. We would need drastic changes at MNKD to dream of that. Even if we got such changes, your decimal point projection is fantasy even beyond the MTOI level (never thought I’d miss his fantastic predictions but kinda do). OK - I will sound like a broken record one more time. To get to the $325 only takes 2 things 1. afrezza to be SoC and properly priced 2. Saxenda DPI approved and properly priced Thats it - these would be the two leading drugs in the two biggest markets and as our president says "That's no joke" I don't know why you are so pessimistic. That doesn't even make MNKD the largest pharma company much less the most valuable company in the world. I suggest you put your thinking cap on and figure out how to push for a multi-trillion valuation. All it takes is 1) a little imagination and 2) you selling the story well enough on proboards  |
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 6, 2024 15:18:14 GMT -5
One last point and then I will stop sounding like the broken record on why afrezza's price needs to be reduced to around $35. The $35 price is what MNKD is already selling it on Medicare for so this is not something new. If I remember correctly Mike was so excited about the script increase from Medicare but it requires that crazy pre auth process. How much MNKD is making from this and who is getting paid with this PBM scheme maybe Aged can explain. MNKD is also already selling for $100 commercially but you need 3 denials from insurance to get it. This is crazy too and few doctors want to do the paperwork. I have no idea what happened to the $99 deal but I would sure like Mike to explain this one. So by your logic, I suppose LQDA should offer $35 price when Yutrepia is approved so they can conquer their BP competitor? For starters LQDA does not have a better product let alone a product which can totally disrupt the market. Some would argue its product may not be as good. Second, BP doesn't really care about PAH as its only a $10B market not $100B. Research funding is also not so great. Compare that to diabetes. A $35 Yutrepia would only disrupt UTHR and they don't play with the big dogs like Novo, Lilly, etc. Afrezza goes right at the throat of the big dogs. Most important, LQDA does not have a sugar daddy paying the bills as Tyvaso DPI is for MNKD. MNKD is in a unique position. While I don't expect LQDA to get much of UTHR's market at $35 they would grab a huge portion and very much disrupt UTHR. However UTHR would match price before they grab the market and LQDA goes bankrupt. At $35 MNKD is making 15% profit since Tyvaso DPI is paying for all the fixed costs. Thank you Martine! |
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Post by hopingandwilling on Feb 6, 2024 16:42:02 GMT -5
SayHey-----However UTHR would match price before they grab the market and LQDA goes bankrupt. At $35 MNKD is making 15% profit since Tyvaso DPI is paying for all the fixed costs. Thank you Martine!"
#1--If UTHR sells Tyvaso DPI for $35.00, then UTHR, as you say, will incur manufacturing costs. For example, purposes, let's say their expense will be 35% of their stated $35.00 of revenue. This means UTHR will net $22.75, and now, with MNKD's 10% royalty, that would generate for MNKD $2.27, but then we must remember that MNKD has sold 10% of their royalty to another company. Now we are down to $2.043 cents coming to MNKD. But now let's remember that UTHR will pay for the manufacturing on cost plus 5%. Now, this is the Catch-22 for MNKD. Two companies can't write off the cost of making a product. Now, the question to you is simple--who will get the tax break for this cost? Who will incur the wear and tear expenses on that manufacturing facility in Danbury? You do know that the manufacturing cost will be charged back to MNKD, and thus, it will reduce the royalty payment to MNKD! Martine's lawyers and accountants didn't fall off a turnip truck. As for who will go broke first, Liquidia or MannKind, my guess is MannKind. Because Liquidia will be netting more than what MannKind will be netting for their $35.00 prescriptions, Liquidia's manufacturing process will cost much less than what MannKind will incur. All of my comments are just 'food for thought' for you. Maybe I'm wrong! But I've made a few cost and profit budgets for a Fortune 500 company.
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Post by agedhippie on Feb 6, 2024 17:15:56 GMT -5
The Afrezza co-pay (not per box) is $35 on Medicare where it is in the Plan D formulary. The actual amount MNKD gets is far higher though and is negotiated between the Part D insurer and MNKD. There is a rather weird rebate system between the Plan provider and CMS. My guess would be that the cost to CMS is about the same as to a commercial insurer. Unfortunately I cannot explain exactly how this works since I have never found a full breakdown. There are to many possibilities for me to guess why the $99 offer was withdrawn, but I would love to know for curiosity sake. Is CMS not footing some of the bill? If we can sell commercial for $100 I would think MNKD could offer it for $100 to Medicare but I am sure there is some scheme preventing this. The Part D cost on Medicare.gov is usually around $1200. The insurer is acting as a PBM for Medicare and defines the formulary which is a subset of the Medicare approved drugs. If they want to override the PBM, as with the $35 insulin cap, then they foot some of the cost of that, but not nearly enough to eliminate the cost difference between Afrezza and RAA hence Afrezza doesn't make it into the formularies. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Feb 8, 2024 8:07:14 GMT -5
SayHey-----However UTHR would match price before they grab the market and LQDA goes bankrupt. At $35 MNKD is making 15% profit since Tyvaso DPI is paying for all the fixed costs. Thank you Martine!" #1--If UTHR sells Tyvaso DPI for $35.00, then UTHR, as you say, will incur manufacturing costs. For example, purposes, let's say their expense will be 35% of their stated $35.00 of revenue. This means UTHR will net $22.75, and now, with MNKD's 10% royalty, that would generate for MNKD $2.27, but then we must remember that MNKD has sold 10% of their royalty to another company. Now we are down to $2.043 cents coming to MNKD. But now let's remember that UTHR will pay for the manufacturing on cost plus 5%. Now, this is the Catch-22 for MNKD. Two companies can't write off the cost of making a product. Now, the question to you is simple--who will get the tax break for this cost? Who will incur the wear and tear expenses on that manufacturing facility in Danbury? You do know that the manufacturing cost will be charged back to MNKD, and thus, it will reduce the royalty payment to MNKD! Martine's lawyers and accountants didn't fall off a turnip truck. As for who will go broke first, Liquidia or MannKind, my guess is MannKind. Because Liquidia will be netting more than what MannKind will be netting for their $35.00 prescriptions, Liquidia's manufacturing process will cost much less than what MannKind will incur. All of my comments are just 'food for thought' for you. Maybe I'm wrong! But I've made a few cost and profit budgets for a Fortune 500 company. You are making my point for me. LQDA can not sell at $35. They will go out of business and you don't need to worry about writing off costs. Your original question was about afrezza at $35 and if MNKD could do it then LQDA could also do it. The situations are completely different. MNKD right now is at least breakeven but maybe slightly profitable and its not because of afrezza. No one is buying afrezza and 800 scripts a week is an embarrassment. Dave Kendall told us the reason afrezza was not selling was because it was not the SoC. He was right. We have heard for years on this board the problem is MNKD did not do all the trials. Thats partially true but even after they do all the trials BP will do what they can just like this year when "inhaled insulin" was put in parentheses. When its in parentheses you are not getting insurance coverage. Bill from VDex thinks we need a user based of 25 - 50k users so the industry starts respecting afrezza. I think he is correct and its going to take that to get afrezza out of parentheses in the SoC. To get the user base people need to be able to afford it. Afrezza on sale for the next 2 years at $35 will sure help in making it affordable. |
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