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Post by peppy on Jan 3, 2024 12:20:13 GMT -5
Overall a fine deal MannKind has found themselves able to ink. Someone in the thread, I believe aged, mentioned that the valuation of the royalties was based on the expected *lifetime* of the royalties. Did I interprete that correctly? There is not a royalty timeline from my understanding it's ongoing for as long as Tyvaso DPI is on the market and the agreement between UT and MNKD is never violated or broken. Anyways, it's nice we have succulent capital for important matters and I'm sure the shorts are not pleased with this fine deal. I like Binder. Binder knows what a difference it s to be debt free. If only the world's best insulin had insurance coverage. It has to be superior. Tricky tricky non-inferior. No one looks at glucose levels anymore. One number? |
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Post by mango on Jan 3, 2024 12:21:40 GMT -5
Did I hear Mike say they received favorable feedback from the FDA on the MNKD 101 trial at the end of the year? Was that a little Easter Egg or am I just grasping for more good news? I also liked the clarification on the insulin purchase agreement, which I am guessing they feel the market had overlooked - $50mm savings over four years. That will drop directly to the bottom line. I believe Mike has espoused similar information before regarding FDA's favorable response with Clofazimine. Mike's emotions surrounding Clofazimine conveys something of extreme excitement, confidence and importance. If Phase 2/3 clinical trial is successful the financial implications would be colossal. |
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Post by mayday on Jan 3, 2024 12:38:25 GMT -5
If the stock were clearly undervalued, management would be scooping up shares. Good point... |
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Post by mymann on Jan 3, 2024 12:44:52 GMT -5
Something smells rotten. Sp back to where it was before the news.
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 3, 2024 13:13:46 GMT -5
Thundersnow, In my simple mind that would mean that MNKD could see annual royalties of $ 1 - 1.5 billion? Of course, I am sure there are other "costs" that UHTR would incur that could/would lower the royalty paid, right? This deal with Sagard is based on MNKD getting $1.5B in revenues from royalties. Sagard would not have done the deal without extensive Due Diligence. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 3, 2024 13:19:21 GMT -5
Is MANNKIND now into 'payday loans?'. They just gave up 10% of their revenue stream when loan rates are now declining. Granted, the stock has rallied, but the massive volume welcomes those who short the stock, and it currently reflects those who shorted at the top of the trading are sitting on a 6-10% profit. Maybe 2024 will be the charm year for MNKD--the wait has been long and arduous. For those long--one can hope the recent pattern being up and then slammed back to the $3.00 level, doesn't happen. Good luck to those holding! MNKD's Balance Sheet can't afford another debt deal and definitely not an equity deal. Their royalty stream is a long term event and they needed cash now. Money could be used for capacity expansion or cleaning up the BS so wall street will be happy. As we know WS is not happy hence the $3.75 stock price. They are worried about the debt load on a $200MM Run Rate. |
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Post by BD on Jan 3, 2024 13:21:09 GMT -5
If the stock were clearly undervalued, management would be scooping up shares. Seriously? Look how many shares management already owns. Not everyone has mountains of investment cash lying around...or might be involved in a divorce settlement  I stand by my statement. If it were clearly undervalued, you don't think people would liquidate something not quite as undervalued so they could pick up some shares? That's what I would do, in fact that's what I do all the time as an investor/trader. |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 3, 2024 13:23:18 GMT -5
Something smells rotten. Sp back to where it was before the news. It was up .28 yesterday and currently down .19 today. I expected "profit taking" because that's been the pattern on other events, but it is disappointing of course. We all "long" to see up, and up, and never sideways or down. That will never happen, but if MNKD pays down (off) debt, increases revenues of Afrezza and adds another stream from Clofazamine and/or Nintedanib, the share price action should be significantly more satisfying. |
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Post by hopingandwilling on Jan 3, 2024 13:27:19 GMT -5
What in the hell do you expect from a CEO where he and his CFO have split $16 million dollars in their total compensation packet and for now being in the 9th calendar year for trying to market Afrezza? United, and even MannKind have warned you and the seven dwarfs that they don't see revenue growth in the near term, and no one sees the share price being at $3.75 a share for any reason! When are the retail shareholders going to get on the gravy train? I'm just asking---has anyone got an answer?
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Post by mymann on Jan 3, 2024 13:27:27 GMT -5
Seriously? Look how many shares management already owns. Not everyone has mountains of investment cash lying around...or might be involved in a divorce settlement I stand by my statement. If it were clearly undervalued, you don't think people would liquidate something not quite as undervalued so they could pick up some shares? That's what I would do, in fact that's what I do all the time as an investor/trader. So why would Mike state mnkd is undervalued and not buy? Is he blowing sunshine up our butts? |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 3, 2024 13:34:33 GMT -5
"We see our current market cap as SEVERELY UNDERVALUED." What's interesting is they never finish the sentence with, "...because we're carrying a high to very high SHORT interest rate". (Not polite to complain about the people holding your convertible debt.) |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 3, 2024 14:01:27 GMT -5
Can someone please explain the exact mechanism how the convertible notes conversion mechanism works? I am not much smarter from reading the below. In particular, who decides if the bond gets repaid in cash or via MNKD equity? Is it the bind holders or MNKD? Thank you! 03/02/21 PDF Version WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif., March 02, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MannKind Corporation (Nasdaq: MNKD) today announced the pricing of $200.0 million aggregate principal amount of 2.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 (the "notes") in a private placement (the "offering") to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"). MannKind also granted the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the notes are first issued, up to an additional $30.0 million aggregate principal amount of notes. The sale of the notes is expected to close on March 4, 2021, subject to customary closing conditions. The notes will be general unsecured obligations of MannKind and will accrue interest at a rate of 2.50% per annum, payable semiannually in arrears on March 1 and September 1 of each year, beginning on September 1, 2021. The notes will mature on March 1, 2026, unless earlier converted, redeemed or repurchased. Before December 1, 2025, holders will have the right to convert their notes only upon the occurrence of certain events. From and after December 1, 2025, until the close of business on the business day immediately preceding the maturity date, holders will have the right to convert all or any portion of their notes at their election. Upon conversion, MannKind will pay or deliver, as the case may be, cash, shares of MannKind’s common stock or a combination of cash and shares of MannKind’s common stock, at its election. The initial conversion rate is 191.8281 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, which represents an initial conversion price of approximately $5.21 per share of common stock. The initial conversion price represents a premium of approximately 30% over the last reported sale of $4.01 per share of MannKind’s common stock on March 1, 2021. The conversion rate and conversion price will be subject to adjustment upon the occurrence of certain events. MannKind may not redeem the notes prior to March 6, 2024. MannKind may redeem for cash all or any portion of the notes (subject to certain limitations), at its option, on or after March 6, 2024 and prior to the 36th scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, if the last reported sale price of MannKind’s common stock has been at least 130% of the conversion price then in effect for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during any 30 consecutive trading day period (including the last trading day of such period) ending on, and including, the trading day immediately preceding the date on which MannKind provides notice of redemption at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date. If a “fundamental change” (as defined in the indenture for the notes) occurs, then, subject to limited exceptions, holders may require MannKind to repurchase their notes for cash. The repurchase price would be equal to the principal amount of the notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the applicable repurchase date. I think the key is what I highlighted. Based on the timing of the Sagard cash raise, MannKind apparently intends to eliminate the bond debt (with cash) sooner rather than later. They may have said that explicitly on the conference call, but I've not listened to it yet. |
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Post by peppy on Jan 3, 2024 14:14:35 GMT -5
MannKind may not redeem the notes prior to March 6, 2024. MannKind may redeem for cash all or any portion of the notes (subject to certain limitations), at its option, on or after March 6, 2024 and prior to the 36th scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, if the last reported sale price of MannKind’s common stock has been at least 130% of the conversion price then in effect for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during any 30 consecutive trading day period (including the last trading day of such period) ending on, and including, the trading day immediately preceding the date on which MannKind provides notice of redemption at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but excluding, the redemption date.
If a “fundamental change” (as defined in the indenture for the notes) occurs, then, subject to limited exceptions, holders may require MannKind to repurchase their notes for cash. The repurchase price would be equal to the principal amount of the notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to, but excluding, the applicable repurchase date.
I think the key is what I highlighted. Based on the timing of the Sagard cash raise, MannKind apparently intends to eliminate the bond debt (with cash) sooner rather than later.
Looks like the plan. Was MNKD paying 7.5% on the money?
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 3, 2024 14:29:28 GMT -5
Looks like the plan. Was MNKD paying 7.5% on the money? The post above yours says 2.5% in the Press Release, doesn't it? Or do I misunderstand something? |
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Post by castlerockchris on Jan 3, 2024 14:31:11 GMT -5
The graph of future insulin purchases before and after the amended agreement shows the huge difference between actual Afrezza sales and what mnkd was expecting. I am trying to figure out how to tell you politely you are missing the point. We all, including MNKD management, are disappointed in Afrezza sales. Yes they totally and unequivocally stink. The graph has nothing to do with sales projections and everything to do with lowering expenses from a crappy contract that was originally committed to by God only knows who, when everyone was convinced Afrezza was the bomb. The point of the renegotiated insulin purchase agreement is not to show what MNKD thought they would sell and what they are going to sell. That shipped sailed when they entered into the original sale. MNKD has been renegotiating the purchase quantities down since they figured out sales were not the "Riches" they thought they were going to be. The reality of the matter is this renegotiation removes $50mm dollars of guaranteed expense out into the future when we will hopefully have somewhat better Afrezza sales and a much better cash flow position to cover the higher expense. But for now - the next four years, the team found a way to significantly lower MNKDs expenses. That money from a budgetary perspective will fall to the bottom line or facilitate additional R&D, or even assisting with our break even rate. Clearly this will also help with boards desire to see the endo business at cash flow break even. In 2024 alone the deal has the ability to have more than a $3mm impact per quarter. I have to admit, I would have much rather have seen a graph showing last years purchases compared to the next four years commitments (which I am sure I can find if I want to read long enough). That would have given a much more informative view on the real impact to our bottom line. The other reality is if management bonuses and stock awards are tied impart to cash flow, you have to wonder, did we just dampen future cash flow opportunities (years 5+), for short term gains...aka goosing the numbers or sandbagging. I hope that isn't the case and I would have to read the agreement to truly know. But for all the belly aching on ProBoards about no PR and no transparency, we sure have a way of slamming it when we get what we asked for. |
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