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Post by standup on Jan 3, 2024 18:23:11 GMT -5
I think it's important to differentiate between debt (a typical note with an interest rate) and convertible and other debt loaded with restrictions/covenants. The convertible and Midcap debt was negotiated from a weak position and should be payed off as quickly as possible.
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Post by JEvans on Jan 3, 2024 18:45:23 GMT -5
Wall Street is never going to reward you for raising cash and then settling debt unless the interest rate on the debt is horrific. They see it as management saying that they don't know how to grow the business so they are going to pay down debt because they don't have any better ideas. Wall Street does not see debt as a problem as the bond markets will testify. Are you saying Wall Street is smart and can be trusted? Debt is always last resort. In order for Sagard to make their $150m investment back, Tyvaso DPI is going to have to go through the roof and into space! If UTHR revenue on DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year, less 1% = $396M/yr. Sagard gets $4M/yr. $150M divided by $4M/yr = 37.5 years just to get their $$ back! This, no matter how Hippie wants to slice and dice it, is a fantastic opportunity for MNKD to cash out on the lotto in 1 yr instead of a hypothetical 37.5 years. Win Win Win for MNKD |
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Post by mymann on Jan 3, 2024 18:54:41 GMT -5
Wall Street is never going to reward you for raising cash and then settling debt unless the interest rate on the debt is horrific. They see it as management saying that they don't know how to grow the business so they are going to pay down debt because they don't have any better ideas. Wall Street does not see debt as a problem as the bond markets will testify. Are you saying Wall Street is smart and can be trusted? Debt is always last resort. In order for Sagard to make their $150m investment back, Tyvaso DPI is going to have to go through the roof and into space! If UTHR revenue on DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year, less 1% = $396M/yr. Sagard gets $4M/yr. $150M divided by $4M/yr = 37.5 years just to get their $$ back! This, no matter how Hippie wants to slice and dice it, is a fantastic opportunity for MNKD to cash out on the lotto in 1 yr instead of a hypothetical 37.5 years. Win Win Win for MNKD 1% of total revenue. Mnkd gets 10% of Tyvaso DPI revenue from UTHR. 1% of total revenue, 10% of Mnkd revenue received. 9% for Mnkd and 1% to Sagard. |
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Post by JEvans on Jan 3, 2024 19:07:10 GMT -5
If my math is correct ?
If UTHR revenue on Tyvaso DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year (less 1% to Sagard) = $396M/yr. (currently our DPI royalties are ~$60M/yr)
Sagard gets $4M/yr. $150M divided by $4M/yr = 37.5 years for Sagard just to get their $$ back!
This, no matter how Hippie wants to slice and dice it, is a fantastic opportunity for MNKD to cash out on the lotto in 1 yr instead of a hypothetical 37.5 years. Win Win Win for MNKD.
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 3, 2024 19:13:20 GMT -5
If my math is correct ?
If UTHR revenue on Tyvaso DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year (less 1% to Sagard) = $396M/yr.
Sagard gets $4M/yr. $150M divided by $4M/yr = 37.5 years for Sagard just to get their $$ back!
This, no matter how Hippie wants to slice and dice it, is a fantastic opportunity for MNKD to cash out on the lotto in 1 yr instead of a hypothetical 37.5 years. Win Win Win for MNKD. MNKD gets 10%, Sagard gets 1%…. Which means Sagard gets 10% of what MNKD gets. If your math were correct and MNKD got $400m, then Sagard gets 10% of that. |
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Post by JEvans on Jan 3, 2024 19:21:32 GMT -5
If my math is correct ?
If UTHR revenue on Tyvaso DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year (less 1% to Sagard) = $396M/yr.
Sagard gets $4M/yr. $150M divided by $4M/yr = 37.5 years for Sagard just to get their $$ back!
This, no matter how Hippie wants to slice and dice it, is a fantastic opportunity for MNKD to cash out on the lotto in 1 yr instead of a hypothetical 37.5 years. Win Win Win for MNKD. MNKD gets 10%, Sagard gets 1%…. Which means Sagard gets 10% of what MNKD gets. If your math were correct and MNKD got $400m, then Sagard gets 10% of that. Thank you for correcting my math.... If UTHR revenue on Tyvaso DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year (less 10% to Sagard) = $360M/yr. Sagard gets $40M/yr. $150M divided by $40M/yr = 3.75 years for Sagard to get their $$ back! |
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Post by peppy on Jan 3, 2024 19:27:39 GMT -5
MNKD gets 10%, Sagard gets 1%…. Which means Sagard gets 10% of what MNKD gets. If your math were correct and MNKD got $400m, then Sagard gets 10% of that. Thank you for correcting my math.... If UTHR revenue on Tyvaso DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year (less 10% to Sagard) = $360M/yr. Sagard gets $40M/yr. $150M divided by $40M/yr = 3.75 years for Sagard to get their $$ back! Rule of 72. If they double their money in 10 years, they got 7% a year on the investment. ......... It will be a while to go from Tyvasso UTHR revenue 1 billion to 4 billion. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 3, 2024 19:36:20 GMT -5
Wall Street is never going to reward you for raising cash and then settling debt unless the interest rate on the debt is horrific. They see it as management saying that they don't know how to grow the business so they are going to pay down debt because they don't have any better ideas. Wall Street does not see debt as a problem as the bond markets will testify. Are you saying Wall Street is smart and can be trusted? Debt is always last resort. In order for Sagard to make their $150m investment back, Tyvaso DPI is going to have to go through the roof and into space! If UTHR revenue on DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year, less 1% = $396M/yr. Sagard gets $4M/yr. $150M divided by $4M/yr = 37.5 years just to get their $$ back! This, no matter how Hippie wants to slice and dice it, is a fantastic opportunity for MNKD to cash out on the lotto in 1 yr instead of a hypothetical 37.5 years. Win Win Win for MNKD I agree with Aged and I just listened to today's call. I was hoping Mike was going to say we are planning to use the money to launch a new product with a $100B market. Instead I heard we a playing four corners and protecting what we have. Wall St wants hear we are growing this business and growing it fast. Otherwise they are better putting their money in the S&P 500. Its no wonder we had a sell off. I was glad to hear the $150M is in the bank. Now I need to hear what our next molecule is we are putting on TS. |
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Jan 3, 2024 19:52:15 GMT -5
Oh my this board is most entertaining. Another bullish thought, and who knows if becomes a reality or is even worth the time to type, but Sagard did their due diligence and are obviously very confident this was a good investment. To me, their $150mm++ investment in T-DPI is worth more than any broker putting a buy rating and price target on MNKD stock. These guys went out and dug deep into the market potential. and determined they can obtain their target ROI without a convertible stock element or other form of sweetener, which speaks volumes about the potential. I for one sure as heck hope they are right. Fully agree, it assigns a tangible price to the value of DPI for MNKD and gives MNKD tremendous flexibility as they move forward with 101 and 201 as high confidence opportunities and Afrezza Peds which I see as higher risk/higher return The horizon is coming into focus! |
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Post by castlerockchris on Jan 3, 2024 20:09:48 GMT -5
My oh my this board got very entertaining today. I too agree with agedhippie, and am a big believer in OPM - Other People's Money, especially if I can get it at less than 3% APR, hence why I still have a 30 year mortgage. As an investor or business person, I know I can double or triple the return. So I am a little concerned when I see companies with no debt. Likewise I get concerned when companies spend or even borrow to buy back stock. It tells me they are out of ideas on how to create additional opportunities with better ROI or ways to create leverage. AAPL is one of the few exceptions. In the case of MNKD, what I think we are hearing from MC is that he likes the hand he is holding right now (he should know better than any of us) and is putting all of his/our chips on T-DPI, MNKD 101 and 201 for the next two to three years. I am guessing he feels he can "10X" his/our investment with those three opportunities. Big gamble, I love his confidence and sure as heck hope he is right and it pans out over the next three to four quarters. |
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Post by longliner on Jan 3, 2024 20:31:51 GMT -5
I just now had a chance to listen (long holiday!) This little ditty came to mind; We longs is rich, we longs is pretty, you broke dick traders ain't so witty! I can't wait for the next shoe to drop at JP Morgan!  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 3, 2024 20:33:01 GMT -5
Are you saying Wall Street is smart and can be trusted? Debt is always last resort. In order for Sagard to make their $150m investment back, Tyvaso DPI is going to have to go through the roof and into space! If UTHR revenue on DPI = $4B/yr (currently its at ~$1B/yr), then MNKD gets $400M/year, less 1% = $396M/yr. Sagard gets $4M/yr. $150M divided by $4M/yr = 37.5 years just to get their $$ back! This, no matter how Hippie wants to slice and dice it, is a fantastic opportunity for MNKD to cash out on the lotto in 1 yr instead of a hypothetical 37.5 years. Win Win Win for MNKD I agree with Aged and I just listened to today's call. I was hoping Mike was going to say we are planning to use the money to launch a new product with a $100B market. Instead I heard we a playing four corners and protecting what we have. Wall St wants hear we are growing this business and growing it fast. Otherwise they are better putting their money in the S&P 500. Its no wonder we had a sell off. I was glad to hear the $150M is in the bank. Now I need to hear what our next molecule is we are putting on TS. Clofazamine. There’s a bullet on revenue on one of the slides. I believe it said 1,000 patients = $100M. Yup, $100,000 per year per patient. I’m guessing the “orphan” designation is part of the reason. Mike also mentioned 100,000 candidate patients in the US, and another 100,000 in Japan (and however many everywhere else). if Mike’s right (and I assume those numbers are developed by seasoned veterans of the pharma industry), then 10% of the market would be a $1B opportunity. Pull that off and you’re looking at $3 to $4 EPS and $14 to $24 P/E = $42 to $96 per share...in this decade. MNKD is not my retirement plan, but $50/share would make a nice addition to my retirement plan. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 3, 2024 20:45:41 GMT -5
My oh my this board got very entertaining today. I too agree with agedhippie , and am a big believer in OPM - Other People's Money, especially if I can get it at less than 3% APR, hence why I still have a 30 year mortgage. As an investor or business person, I know I can double or triple the return. So I am a little concerned when I see companies with no debt. Likewise I get concerned when companies spend or even borrow to buy back stock. It tells me they are out of ideas on how to create additional opportunities with better ROI or ways to create leverage. AAPL is one of the few exceptions. ... Actually AAPL has a ton of debt. I could see 17 bonds right out to 2060 and I might have missed a couple.  Analysts like to see debt for exactly the reason you say - management are confident in the growth prospects of the company. At one point I worked for a wildly profitable multinational company and remember being told to prepare for the underwriters because we were going to take on debt. I asked why since we plainly didn't need the money and the reply was that it helped the share price as it showed confidence in revenue growth. |
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Post by peppy on Jan 3, 2024 20:57:28 GMT -5
My oh my this board got very entertaining today. I too agree with agedhippie , and am a big believer in OPM - Other People's Money, especially if I can get it at less than 3% APR, hence why I still have a 30 year mortgage. As an investor or business person, I know I can double or triple the return. So I am a little concerned when I see companies with no debt. Likewise I get concerned when companies spend or even borrow to buy back stock. It tells me they are out of ideas on how to create additional opportunities with better ROI or ways to create leverage. AAPL is one of the few exceptions. ... Actually AAPL has a ton of debt. I could see 17 bonds right out to 2060 and I might have missed a couple. Analysts like to see debt for exactly the reason you say - management are confident in the growth prospects of the company. At one point I worked for a wildly profitable multinational company and remember being told to prepare for the underwriters because we were going to take on debt. I asked why since we plainly didn't need the money and the reply was that it helped the share price as it showed confidence in revenue growth. debt is a four letter word. |
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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 3, 2024 21:31:20 GMT -5
I agree with Aged and I just listened to today's call. I was hoping Mike was going to say we are planning to use the money to launch a new product with a $100B market. Instead I heard we a playing four corners and protecting what we have. Wall St wants hear we are growing this business and growing it fast. Otherwise they are better putting their money in the S&P 500. Its no wonder we had a sell off. I was glad to hear the $150M is in the bank. Now I need to hear what our next molecule is we are putting on TS. Clofazamine. There’s a bullet on revenue on one of the slides. I believe it said 1,000 patients = $100M. Yup, $100,000 per year per patient. I’m guessing the “orphan” designation is part of the reason. Mike also mentioned 100,000 candidate patients in the US, and another 100,000 in Japan (and however many everywhere else). if Mike’s right (and I assume those numbers are developed by seasoned veterans of the pharma industry), then 10% of the market would be a $1B opportunity. Pull that off and you’re looking at $3 to $4 EPS and $14 to $24 P/E = $42 to $96 per share...in this decade. MNKD is not my retirement plan, but $50/share would make a nice addition to my retirement plan. Let's hope Mike is right on Clofazamine. Let's also hope he figures out how to sell afrezza. He mentioned Cipla so I still hope their results are great. If so I would slash the price of afrezza in the U.S. and totally disrupt the RAA and T2 markets. We need the India results to support label updates and T2 SoC updates. If it is priced low enough i.e. $35 the Medicare crowd does not need Medicare to cover it. Now with money in the bank and the bills being paid its time to blow up the market and take the market by storm. Get on all the talk shows and in front of congress and on all the morning business shows and get as much earned advertising as possible. |
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