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Post by agedhippie on Jan 19, 2024 15:01:53 GMT -5
you just shifted the conversation to everything that goes into the market valuation of MNKD. As much as I would love to hear your very complex explanation as to why this company deserves be valued where it is, this particular conversation was about whether or not the debt should be considered toxic based on whether or not the debt holders have incentive keep the sp below $5.21. And they do, you said it! Ok, I will keep it simple. The note holders only have an incentive to keep the price low IF MNKD cannot pay in cash. Since MNKD will pay in cash the note payers view the share price as irrelevant and don't care what it is because they are not getting shares. Hence, not toxic. |
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Post by letitride on Jan 19, 2024 15:46:42 GMT -5
My thought on this is if note holders have a short position now is the time to close it. They should also be trying to make a deal to redeem the notes early to use the capital elsewhere at a better interest rate than 2.5%.
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 19, 2024 15:47:02 GMT -5
you just shifted the conversation to everything that goes into the market valuation of MNKD. As much as I would love to hear your very complex explanation as to why this company deserves be valued where it is, this particular conversation was about whether or not the debt should be considered toxic based on whether or not the debt holders have incentive keep the sp below $5.21. And they do, you said it! Ok, I will keep it simple. The note holders only have an incentive to keep the price low IF MNKD cannot pay in cash. Since MNKD will pay in cash the note payers view the share price as irrelevant and don't care what it is because they are not getting shares. Hence, not toxic. and as I just said, that logic applies after March 6th. Until then the note holders have free rein because it doesn’t matter how MNKD may settle the debt, they’re not allowed to, so it isn’t a threat to the note holders to stop being toxic until March 6th. |
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 19, 2024 18:26:34 GMT -5
Ok, I will keep it simple. The note holders only have an incentive to keep the price low IF MNKD cannot pay in cash. Since MNKD will pay in cash the note payers view the share price as irrelevant and don't care what it is because they are not getting shares. Hence, not toxic. and as I just said, that logic applies after March 6th. Until then the note holders have free rein because it doesn’t matter how MNKD may settle the debt, they’re not allowed to, so it isn’t a threat to the note holders to stop being toxic until March 6th. Why? MNKD have the money sitting in the bank to settle the debt right now. The note holders know when this gets settled they are getting cash so their only other option is to convert now and pay MNKD $5.21 per share rather than buy on the open market at $3.35 a share. It's pretty obvious they will not convert. If anything they have an incentive to pump the price, convert, and dump. The toxic part is the warrants that were issued in parallel with the tranches. The first tranche were issued with a strike price of $1.11 so those absolutely could be used to support a short position. |
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Post by ktim on Jan 19, 2024 18:52:02 GMT -5
If the data is as good as we all hope, and BP won’t let up, he can just offload it to one of them for a much higher premium than before data. Win/Win for patients and shareholders. I’d have no problem selling it off for a few billion and move on to other things. Right now BP has afrezza exactly were they want them at 1k scripts a week. In other words, afrezza is not impacting the $100B market. Why would any of them break the cartel and disrupt the $100B market? They are all making $Bs from the GLP1s and SGLTs and the pumps. Not one of them will break something which is working really well. Not one will give Mike a reasonable offer for afrezza. The only reason to buy afrezza would be to shelf it. Mike has 2 years to make his move. Until then the share price will bounce as it has between $5.50 and $3.50. How long has this been going on - 4 or 5 years? Buy at $3.50 and sell at $5.50. I would guess some have made a lot of money and as long as BP has Mike spooked I don't see anything changing soon with this pattern. Whats it at now $3.35 in other words a buy. Next stop $5.50.Or $2.50. With MNKD there is a huge range of possibilities. |
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Post by cjc04 on Jan 19, 2024 20:03:47 GMT -5
and as I just said, that logic applies after March 6th. Until then the note holders have free rein because it doesn’t matter how MNKD may settle the debt, they’re not allowed to, so it isn’t a threat to the note holders to stop being toxic until March 6th. Why? MNKD have the money sitting in the bank to settle the debt right now. The note holders know when this gets settled they are getting cash so their only other option is to convert now and pay MNKD $5.21 per share rather than buy on the open market at $3.35 a share. It's pretty obvious they will not convert. If anything they have an incentive to pump the price, convert, and dump. The toxic part is the warrants that were issued in parallel with the tranches. The first tranche were issued with a strike price of $1.11 so those absolutely could be used to support a short position. there are many different elements piling into this convo. It started with, “Do the note holders have incentive to keep the sp below $5.21” I believe YES has been established. As for this comment…. Let’s assume communication with the note holders is legit and we, as reets, know as much as the note holders and were surprised to hear about the 1% royalty sale giving MNKD the cash to pay the notes. They may need to reposition their strategy due to that news, and they have until March 6th until it is an actual threat to them with the possibility of the notes being paid at any moment (and they wouldn’t want to get caught with short positions, and now know there won’t be shares from MNKD to cover any short positions, as you point out. So, they have til March 6th to position themselves in the place that you’re arguing that we should assume they are in right now. Throw in any possible “manipulation” around the large amount of leaps that expired today,,,, and we will see what happens between Monday, and March 6th. |
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Post by dh4mizzou on Jan 19, 2024 20:26:44 GMT -5
8 weeks of this? ARGH !!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by runner on Jan 19, 2024 20:35:48 GMT -5
8 weeks of this? ARGH !!!!!!!!!!! Only 6 weeks and 2 days from Monday til March 6. But still...ARGH!!!! |
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Post by agedhippie on Jan 19, 2024 20:49:03 GMT -5
...They may need to reposition their strategy due to that news, and they have until March 6th until it is an actual threat to them with the possibility of the notes being paid at any moment (and they wouldn’t want to get caught with short positions, and now know there won’t be shares from MNKD to cover any short positions, as you point out.... To be clear on this, MNKD can only redeem the notes under certain very specific conditions that are currently nowhere near met. They can redeem the share price has been over $6.90 for 20 trading days so hardly at any moment even assuming they are shorting. MannKind may redeem for cash all or any portion of the notes (subject to certain limitations), at its option, on or after March 6, 2024 and prior to the 36th scheduled trading day immediately preceding the maturity date, if the last reported sale price of MannKind’s common stock has been at least 130% of the conversion price then in effect for at least 20 trading days (whether or not consecutive) during any 30 consecutive trading day period |
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Post by radgray68 on Jan 19, 2024 21:21:02 GMT -5
The big question is: How long does ANY company's stock trade at 3X their cash on hand? It's completely blowing my fundamentals-loving mind right now.
a) Our debt can be serviced with our current cash flow. Major biggie, IMHO
b) We've got 3 FDA approved products, a couple of them growing double digits. One of them, Afrezza, is being PROPERLY evaluated for the first time.
c) In just 6 months we'll have TWO MORE pipeline products in Phase 3 development. Both mostly de-risked, mind you, because we know they work. And, don't forget their likely orphan/maybe fast-track status.
d) We've already got like 14% of the float sold short and needing to be repurchased.
So, ruminate all you want to on the fine print of the current not-very-toxic debt. However, we have a spring-loaded "BEAR" trap (get the clever double entendra, lol) which is ready to go off here and the two ongoing endocrine trials are metaphorically poking at the trap with a stick. Any time now and.....SNAP!!!!
Have a great weekend everyone
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 20, 2024 7:51:44 GMT -5
Going from memory, I think the debt maturity is December 2026, not March. The March date I remember is this year as a possible earliest payoff date, but it comes with share price constraints over some period of time. The interest on the debt is way less than current debt instruments. It begs the question, why would debt holders not want it paid off early? They probably would, a better question is why MNKD would want to pay it early. As they pointed out in the call they can put the $150M in the bank and collect on the difference between the 2.5% they are paying, and the higher amount they are being paid - it's free money. If the debt holders then have incentive to be paid sooner rather than later, what actions might they take to precipitate that? |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 20, 2024 10:49:22 GMT -5
I don't agree with that sentence. However, I wish it were accurate but (more importantly) hope it to be a moot point. For Mike to survive the next 2 years he needs to figure out a plan for afrezza. Its too expensive and is not getting insurance coverage. I think he has already figured out V-Go is a no go. I love the line from his JP Morgan slide - "Discipline selling of V-Go in secondary position to maintain core prescribing base" . Last year afrezza was for T1 market and V-Go was for T2. Now V-Go is in a secondary position. I would say thats progress. If things stay steady state and afrezza is still too expensive and still has no insurance coverage when the great results come in from Cipla and the kids, afrezza will still have little sales. I would think it will be hard for Mike to survive at that point. He will have trial data saying he has the greatest advance in diabetes care since Banting and Best but he has not figured out a way to get BP's boot off MNKDs throat. He is also sitting on a potential block buster in the GLP1 market but was not willing to poke the bear. I could be wrong but I don't think price is the issue. Afrezza is pulling in 70-80% margins. They could easily lower the ASP to earn more revenues. I honestly believe it's the DATA/STUDIES. Most Doctors (like 90%) are PROGRAMMED to be GUIDED by Studies and Publications. They have a PROTOCOL and that's what they follow. Just look at the treatment for Diabetes. TREAT TO FAIL......We've known for 7 years now and published "articles" (Not Studies) that say if you take Afrezza at first diagnosis for Type 2 you can reverse diabetes. You can actually help your pancreas regenerate new beta cells BUT Doctors will now go against the PROTOCOL and it could be bc of insurance coverage. MNKD has elasticity in Afrezza and apparently they have chosen not to adjust. I feel bad for the salespeople. It makes their job a lot harder which we saw with the recent layoffs. I know Mike is chomping at the bit for the PEDS Readout. This will give the markets some insight as to the progress of the trial. And I believe his trying to time everything. CV Debt Window OPENS (March) and hopefully PEDS Readout in April and then the ATTD and ADA in May & June. Hoping for a good 2024. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 20, 2024 10:56:56 GMT -5
For Mike to survive the next 2 years he needs to figure out a plan for afrezza. Its too expensive and is not getting insurance coverage. I think he has already figured out V-Go is a no go. I love the line from his JP Morgan slide - "Discipline selling of V-Go in secondary position to maintain core prescribing base" . Last year afrezza was for T1 market and V-Go was for T2. Now V-Go is in a secondary position. I would say thats progress. If things stay steady state and afrezza is still too expensive and still has no insurance coverage when the great results come in from Cipla and the kids, afrezza will still have little sales. I would think it will be hard for Mike to survive at that point. He will have trial data saying he has the greatest advance in diabetes care since Banting and Best but he has not figured out a way to get BP's boot off MNKDs throat. He is also sitting on a potential block buster in the GLP1 market but was not willing to poke the bear. If the data is as good as we all hope, and BP won’t let up, he can just offload it to one of them for a much higher premium than before data. Win/Win for patients and shareholders. I’d have no problem selling it off for a few billion and move on to other things. Thats a good plan but it's not going to work. NO ONE will pay Billions for Afrezza at this time. Not with a run rate of $100M. MNKD's best option is to find a GLOBAL Partner and share profits 50/50 and maybe get $700M in upfront money along with an AIR TIGHT Agreement. They learned alot from Sanofi. Who knows it could be Sanofi again as a partner. Is their Apidra still on the market??? Afrezza would rejuvenate their mealtime biz even though they are exiting the diabetes market. They will be in the diabetes markets for years to come but not new R&D. This would not be R&D and it will generate a boatload of Revenues. I see it as a win/win for MNKD & Sanofi. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 20, 2024 11:01:10 GMT -5
Going from memory, I think the debt maturity is December 2026, not March. The March date I remember is this year as a possible earliest payoff date, but it comes with share price constraints over some period of time. The interest on the debt is way less than current debt instruments. It begs the question, why would debt holders not want it paid off early? They probably would, a better question is why MNKD would want to pay it early. As they pointed out in the call they can put the $150M in the bank and collect on the difference between the 2.5% they are paying, and the higher amount they are being paid - it's free money. It might be free money but if the stock price is stuck below $4 then what's the purpose? MIKE is supposed to create SHAREHOLDER VALUE. The only way to do that is to have the share price higher. With all of the existing good news out about MNKD the stock is at $3.36. Why is it at $3.36......The SHORTS. Who are the SHORTS??? The Convertible Bondholders. That's why they need to get rid of (or pay down) the debt. |
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Post by Thundersnow on Jan 20, 2024 11:07:01 GMT -5
They probably would, a better question is why MNKD would want to pay it early. As they pointed out in the call they can put the $150M in the bank and collect on the difference between the 2.5% they are paying, and the higher amount they are being paid - it's free money. It might be free money but if the stock price is stuck below $4 then what's the purpose? MIKE is supposed to create SHAREHOLDER VALUE. The only way to do that is to have the share price higher. With all of the existing good news out about MNKD the stock is at $3.36. Why is it at $3.36......The SHORTS. Who are the SHORTS??? The Convertible Bondholders. That's why they need to get rid of (or pay down) the debt. MNKD has an annual run rate of $200M now and any small cap pharma company has a sales multiple of 10x which means their market cap should be at least $2 Billion. It's at $907M and you're telling me the SHORTS (i.e. bondholders) are not keeping it down? And there is no momentum in a higher stock price or even a SHORT SQUEEZE. MNKD has to get rid of the SHORTS. |
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