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Post by sayhey24 on Jan 28, 2024 7:59:57 GMT -5
It sure doesn't seem from the projected revenue to 2032 that Mike is expecting some paradigm shift based on peds or India trial (at least he's not wanting to be judged against that). Incremental increase in revenue, yes, but doesn't seem anticipation of significant change in insurance coverage or SoC (beyond adding kids to the label). I would expect the pediatric approval to add about 40% to the Afrezza sales. The problem will be the insurance cover and the bias to putting kids on pumps. The pediatric group is 4 - 18 years so a 14 year range. The adult group is 18 upwards giving three times the population. The result is that to match the adult revenue you need three times as many kids on Afrezza to match the revenue Mike shared in that chart. In other words the chart actually is quite aggressive. A 40% increase could be about right but whats that 350 scripts a week? Now thats a joke. The problem is not insurance coverage. The problem is cost. Insurance is one way to solve the root cause but not the only way and Mike can not directly control insurance. The 3 problems with afrezza and all three need to be fixed, not just one. 1. label - Mike can fix 2. SoC - BP will block changes but some will come 3. cost - several ways to fix this getting insurance as the primary solution will be difficult |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Jan 29, 2024 8:28:44 GMT -5
The cost could be free but if doctors won’t prescribe it, the cost would be moot.
Changing the Standard of Care to recommend Afrezza is extremely difficult, especially without persuasive clinical results (and not just from one trial is my guess).
I haven’t heard from anyone in a long time (several years) that the label is a major headwind.
The purpose of this thread was to get a sense of whether $450M to $500M in revenue to MannKind was possible YE 2026, regardless of where the revenue came from. We got the answer, and now we’re devolving. I think it would be OK if the thread were now locked.
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