|
|
Post by Chris-C on Feb 21, 2024 10:32:56 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by hopingandwilling on Feb 21, 2024 11:02:01 GMT -5
The problem with the numbers is simply a case of the sequential growth for Tyvaso DPI only rising by 4% since most of the DPI revenue comes from Tyvaso users switching to Tyvaso DPI. As United admits they have raised the price of their products, a simple increase of 4% would mean there were no new patients opting to use Tyvaso DPI. For the last two quarters, it appears that Tyvaso DPI's growth has hit a plateau--meaning MannKind's royalty revenue will not grow from the current level.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on Feb 21, 2024 11:45:45 GMT -5
The problem with the numbers is simply a case of the sequential growth for Tyvaso DPI only rising by 4% since most of the DPI revenue comes from Tyvaso users switching to Tyvaso DPI. As United admits they have raised the price of their products, a simple increase of 4% would mean there were no new patients opting to use Tyvaso DPI. For the last two quarters, it appears that Tyvaso DPI's growth has hit a plateau--meaning MannKind's royalty revenue will not grow from the current level. Wow. We certainly have vastly different views of the data, but that’s what makes life interesting. Please explain how users switching to DPI does not benefit MNKD? Of course DPI numbers are going to benefit from Tyvaso conversions. Why is that a negative? To me the term “growth plateau” seems premature and hyperbolic until more quarterly numbers are presented. I’ll listen to the call to get (hopefully) more color. Reading between the lines, I’d say UTHR’s excitement seems to be with organ development. That’s understandable. But meantime they’re going to stick with their established products and grow sales as much as they can. I’d also observe that Sagard may have a different take on the prospects for MNKDs DPI royalty stream. Regards to all longs, Chris C |
|
|
|
Post by anderson on Feb 21, 2024 12:23:07 GMT -5
At least it isn't like 2022 where there was a drop in Tyvaso sales in the 4th quarter. I think I remember hearing that Tyvaso sales are not as strong historically in the 4th quarter.
2022
Three Months Ended September 30 2022, Tyvaso $ 257.7
Three Months Ended December 31 2022, Tyvaso $ 242.3
2023
Three Months Ended September 30 2023, Total Tyvaso 325.8
Three Months Ended December 31 2023, Total Tyvaso 350.6
|
|
|
|
Post by centralcoastinvestor on Feb 21, 2024 12:59:26 GMT -5
At least it isn't like 2022 where there was a drop in Tyvaso sales in the 4th quarter. I think I remember hearing that Tyvaso sales are not as strong historically in the 4th quarter. 2022 Three Months Ended September 30 2022, Tyvaso $ 257.7 Three Months Ended December 31 2022, Tyvaso $ 242.3 2023 Three Months Ended September 30 2023, Total Tyvaso 325.8 Three Months Ended December 31 2023, Total Tyvaso 350.6 In today’s conference call, they explained why their earnings drop in the 4th quarter. UTHR mentioned today that they had strong prescription writing in Q4 this year and did not get as big a drop as they have seen in the past. However, even when the prescription is written, patients tend to wait till the beginning of the year to actually start their treatment. Patients do not want to start treatment during the holidays with family visiting and lots of other activities. That is the best explanation I have heard for the 4th quarter drop. It does bode well for Q1 2024 as there should be a rush of new treatments beginning. |
|
|
|
Post by hopingandwilling on Feb 21, 2024 13:12:31 GMT -5
Chris,
You stated that I implied that switching from Tyvaso-to-Tyvaso DPI would not help MannKind---that is not the case. What I was implying is that what is happening for UTHR is that for them, it is simply accounting for revenue by noting it was Tyvaso DPI vs Tyvaso---and for them being able to report their revenue is doesn't matter what they say about the allocation. In the case of Tyvaso DPI, they are relying on switching the long-term users of Tyvaso over to MannKind's DPI version. Looking at the numbers they reported today, they have allocated $213.7M to Tyvaso DPI. Looking back to the 3rdQ report they allocated $205.1 to Tyvaso DPI. So, what I was stating is that the sequential growth of Tyvaso DPI was a mere 4%. What I am saying--the early numbers showing the huge % growth of Tyvaso DPI, that was because current users of Tyvaso were switching over to DPI---but the current 4% growth indicates that those still left to switch--the switching is over. Thus, the revenue for MannKind is not going to be showing 20% growth ---at 4% and factoring in normal cost of goods expenses, they will be netting maybe 2% more than what they are netting now. And with Afrezza plateaued for generating revenue, they will continue to lose money. This is why MannKind's stock is trading for $3.00 and change. What MannKind is generating from Tyvaso DPI is offset by the money being lost on Afrezza.
|
|
|
|
Post by uvula on Feb 21, 2024 13:23:22 GMT -5
I don't think the switching is over. My guess is uthr wants to use up their non-dpi inventory so they might be slow walking the switch until the old stuff is all sold.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on Feb 21, 2024 13:58:07 GMT -5
Chris, You stated that I implied that switching from Tyvaso-to-Tyvaso DPI would not help MannKind---that is not the case. What I was implying is that what is happening for UTHR is that for them, it is simply accounting for revenue by noting it was Tyvaso DPI vs Tyvaso---and for them being able to report their revenue is doesn't matter what they say about the allocation. In the case of Tyvaso DPI, they are relying on switching the long-term users of Tyvaso over to MannKind's DPI version. Looking at the numbers they reported today, they have allocated $213.7M to Tyvaso DPI. Looking back to the 3rdQ report they allocated $205.1 to Tyvaso DPI. So, what I was stating is that the sequential growth of Tyvaso DPI was a mere 4%. What I am saying--the early numbers showing the huge % growth of Tyvaso DPI, that was because current users of Tyvaso were switching over to DPI---but the current 4% growth indicates that those still left to switch--the switching is over. Thus, the revenue for MannKind is not going to be showing 20% growth ---at 4% and factoring in normal cost of goods expenses, they will be netting maybe 2% more than what they are netting now. And with Afrezza plateaued for generating revenue, they will continue to lose money. This is why MannKind's stock is trading for $3.00 and change. What MannKind is generating from Tyvaso DPI is offset by the money being lost on Afrezza. Fair enough. We disagree, with the main point being that your projections of DPI royalty revenues for MNKD going forward are not supported by sufficient data yet. I don’t think very many informed observers on the board expect significant revenue for Afrezza. It is a niche drug. I do believe that it’s possible and even likely to get it to breakeven. And going forward, I’m highly confident that the SP of MNKD will at least double or triple from here, depending on how things unfold by Q1 2025. I do not begrudge your negativity toward the company, and you are not alone given the number of shares shorted. But my optimism has not changed. Time will tell, it always does. I will be interested to listen in on MNKD’s next report. Good luck. Chris |
|
|
|
Post by ryster505 on Feb 21, 2024 15:02:32 GMT -5
Chris, You stated that I implied that switching from Tyvaso-to-Tyvaso DPI would not help MannKind---that is not the case. What I was implying is that what is happening for UTHR is that for them, it is simply accounting for revenue by noting it was Tyvaso DPI vs Tyvaso---and for them being able to report their revenue is doesn't matter what they say about the allocation. In the case of Tyvaso DPI, they are relying on switching the long-term users of Tyvaso over to MannKind's DPI version. Looking at the numbers they reported today, they have allocated $213.7M to Tyvaso DPI. Looking back to the 3rdQ report they allocated $205.1 to Tyvaso DPI. So, what I was stating is that the sequential growth of Tyvaso DPI was a mere 4%. What I am saying--the early numbers showing the huge % growth of Tyvaso DPI, that was because current users of Tyvaso were switching over to DPI---but the current 4% growth indicates that those still left to switch--the switching is over. Thus, the revenue for MannKind is not going to be showing 20% growth ---at 4% and factoring in normal cost of goods expenses, they will be netting maybe 2% more than what they are netting now. And with Afrezza plateaued for generating revenue, they will continue to lose money. This is why MannKind's stock is trading for $3.00 and change. What MannKind is generating from Tyvaso DPI is offset by the money being lost on Afrezza. Fair enough. We disagree, with the main point being that your projections of DPI royalty revenues for MNKD going forward are not supported by sufficient data yet. I don’t think very many informed observers on the board expect significant revenue for Afrezza. It is a niche drug. I do believe that it’s possible and even likely to get it to breakeven. And going forward, I’m highly confident that the SP of MNKD will at least double or triple from here, depending on how things unfold by Q1 2025. I do not begrudge your negativity toward the company, and you are not alone given the number of shares shorted. But my optimism has not changed. Time will tell, it always does. I will be interested to listen in on MNKD’s next report. Good luck. Chris My big question is when we start to see some of this Deferred rev hitting the books. Been piling up for a while now. |
|
|
|
Post by Thundersnow on Feb 21, 2024 17:59:51 GMT -5
The problem with the numbers is simply a case of the sequential growth for Tyvaso DPI only rising by 4% since most of the DPI revenue comes from Tyvaso users switching to Tyvaso DPI. As United admits they have raised the price of their products, a simple increase of 4% would mean there were no new patients opting to use Tyvaso DPI. For the last two quarters, it appears that Tyvaso DPI's growth has hit a plateau--meaning MannKind's royalty revenue will not grow from the current level. Wow. We certainly have vastly different views of the data, but that’s what makes life interesting. Please explain how users switching to DPI does not benefit MNKD? Of course DPI numbers are going to benefit from Tyvaso conversions. Why is that a negative? To me the term “growth plateau” seems premature and hyperbolic until more quarterly numbers are presented. I’ll listen to the call to get (hopefully) more color. Reading between the lines, I’d say UTHR’s excitement seems to be with organ development. That’s understandable. But meantime they’re going to stick with their established products and grow sales as much as they can. I’d also observe that Sagard may have a different take on the prospects for MNKDs DPI royalty stream. Regards to all longs, Chris C I have said before when posters were saying UTHR was going to buy MNKD. NOT GONNA HAPPEN. They are focused on Organ Generation and the Income they will earn through Tyvaso will fund that business. UTHR will not tie up capital by buying MNKD. |
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on Feb 21, 2024 18:19:20 GMT -5
The problem with the numbers is simply a case of the sequential growth for Tyvaso DPI only rising by 4% since most of the DPI revenue comes from Tyvaso users switching to Tyvaso DPI. As United admits they have raised the price of their products, a simple increase of 4% would mean there were no new patients opting to use Tyvaso DPI. For the last two quarters, it appears that Tyvaso DPI's growth has hit a plateau--meaning MannKind's royalty revenue will not grow from the current level. Why is this a problem? UTHR is a very nice annuity which is paying the bills. We all knew it was never going to make MNKD rich but it sure does buy MNKD time and affords a great opportunity to fix the three issues with afrezza. It even provides them the opportunity to fix the fourth issue which I mentioned years ago which is the cartridge naming. This was probably the biggest marketing plunder Al Mann made calling the cartridges 4u, 8u and 12u. They should be called small, medium and large. They should also think of a better more condensed packaging approach. The blister packs take up a ton of space and getting the cartridges out is a bit of a pain. Both need to be fixed prior to label resubmission. |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Feb 21, 2024 18:36:37 GMT -5
Chris I appreciate you being willing to make a share price prediction, even going as far as saying “highly confident.” To be clear, you are expecting our share price to be in the $7 to $11 range by first quarter next year?
I’ve sold so many calls that would mean me losing a lot of shares if you are correct, so I’m pretty confident we won’t get to those share prices by then. But keeping most shares “clean” as my FOMO still persists LOL, so I’d welcome getting called away from shares if we go to your range within a year.
|
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Feb 21, 2024 19:10:15 GMT -5
The problem with the numbers is simply a case of the sequential growth for Tyvaso DPI only rising by 4% since most of the DPI revenue comes from Tyvaso users switching to Tyvaso DPI. As United admits they have raised the price of their products, a simple increase of 4% would mean there were no new patients opting to use Tyvaso DPI. For the last two quarters, it appears that Tyvaso DPI's growth has hit a plateau--meaning MannKind's royalty revenue will not grow from the current level. Why is this a problem? UTHR is a very nice annuity which is paying the bills. We all knew it was never going to make MNKD rich but it sure does buy MNKD time and affords a great opportunity to fix the three issues with afrezza. It even provides them the opportunity to fix the fourth issue which I mentioned years ago which is the cartridge naming. This was probably the biggest marketing plunder Al Mann made calling the cartridges 4u, 8u and 12u. They should be called small, medium and large. They should also think of a better more condensed packaging approach. The blister packs take up a ton of space and getting the cartridges out is a bit of a pain. Both need to be fixed prior to label resubmission. I just posted a video with Ginger Viera talking about the blister packs in a YouTube video and also explaining to the host not to go by the 4U, 8u and 12u labels, in the traditional sense. Back story, the host is a T1 and has his own YT channel and was speaking with a doctor on the latest CGM technology, much of it devoted to Eversense and possible future iterations when the doc mentioned Afrezza. Intrigued, he did a separate episode a few weeks ago on Afrezza with Ginger. Long story short, I agree that a repackage of the cartridges should be a consideration by Mike. I guess it's awkward? Then, she tried to explain dosing to the host as breaking up her carbs into small carb meal = 4u, medium carb meal = 8u and a large carb meal =2X8u cartridges as she doesn't purchase the 12s. What the cost would be to change the label to SML might be more associated with a small dosing trial?  |
|
|
|
Post by hopingandwilling on Feb 21, 2024 22:36:22 GMT -5
Chris,
Since you obviously own MNKD shares--I hope you make a boat load of money for your ownership of these shares. I want any medical company who has a product that works and offers efficacy to a human that is in need of a medical solution that they have access to that product. I'm not so callous that I would want one human to suffer if there is a solution to their medical condition. At this stage of the MNKD saga, just looking back at the posting here--after ten years of being approved, read the contention that all MNKD needs to do is make changes--packaging, relabel using new label sizes for the dosage, more testing, and never forget 10 years ago the constant claim that needle phobia would make Afrezza an instant billion dollar product----it is always the next excuse, the next hairbrained solution, but testing will solve the problem. Why would the current CEO be listening to the internet chatter--he and the CFO, being the head of a 30-year-old corporation and the two have already secured more than $15.0M in their total compensation package---they got their retirement in the BANK, and there are those who want more testing to make them rich. Al Mann, a smart man, but it was the fact he had so much money and pride, he allowed MNKD to spend now more than $3B dollars, and after 10 years after FDA approval even when they get a new user, 75% of them immediately stop getting their prescription refilled. Since Bunting discovered insulin many decades ago, some of the smartest scientists in the world have tried to solve the mystery for how they can use a solution other than injecting insulin into the body and it working to remediate the patient's condition. Pfizer, Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Lilly scientist have failed or given up for inhaled insulin working---and I will bet good money the solution for this problem isn't posting on this board.
As for my initial post--we will see what happens next week when MNKD announces their financial results--since UTHR grew DPI revenue by 4% in the fourth quarter, shouldn't MNKD grow their revenue by at least 4%?
Again, I wish you great success--but there is an old adage about investing in the stock market---" A $3.00 stock is a $3.00 stock for a reason!"
|
|
|
|
Post by bones1026 on Feb 21, 2024 23:46:29 GMT -5
Chris, Since you obviously own MNKD shares--I hope you make a boat load of money for your ownership of these shares. I want any medical company who has a product that works and offers efficacy to a human that is in need of a medical solution that they have access to that product. I'm not so callous that I would want one human to suffer if there is a solution to their medical condition. At this stage of the MNKD saga, just looking back at the posting here--after ten years of being approved, read the contention that all MNKD needs to do is make changes--packaging, relabel using new label sizes for the dosage, more testing, and never forget 10 years ago the constant claim that needle phobia would make Afrezza an instant billion dollar product----it is always the next excuse, the next hairbrained solution, but testing will solve the problem. Why would the current CEO be listening to the internet chatter--he and the CFO, being the head of a 30-year-old corporation and the two have already secured more than $15.0M in their total compensation package---they got their retirement in the BANK, and there are those who want more testing to make them rich. Al Mann, a smart man, but it was the fact he had so much money and pride, he allowed MNKD to spend now more than $3B dollars, and after 10 years after FDA approval even when they get a new user, 75% of them immediately stop getting their prescription refilled. Since Bunting discovered insulin many decades ago, some of the smartest scientists in the world have tried to solve the mystery for how they can use a solution other than injecting insulin into the body and it working to remediate the patient's condition. Pfizer, Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Lilly scientist have failed or given up for inhaled insulin working---and I will bet good money the solution for this problem isn't posting on this board. As for my initial post--we will see what happens next week when MNKD announces their financial results--since UTHR grew DPI revenue by 4% in the fourth quarter, shouldn't MNKD grow their revenue by at least 4%? Again, I wish you great success--but there is an old adage about investing in the stock market---" A $3.00 stock is a $3.00 stock for a reason!" [/ You’re a MNKD holder too, no? |
|
