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Post by alethea on Mar 8, 2024 15:14:58 GMT -5
Those charts must be wrong. The resident "experts" have been swamping the Board for a long time that there really isn't any significant revenue growth. Per them, no real Afrezza growth at all. And Tyvaso DPI royalties have leveled off, are factored in and don't provide much prospect of raising the share price going forward. At least that's what we've been told. Ad nauseam.  Who on earth has been saying that? Granted there was the somewhat exaggerated Tyvaso royalty growth rate due to inventory build that then decelerated (not flattening revenue). That led to a bit of surprise/disappointment for some since the method of recognition wasn't fully appreciated earlier. But no one that I recall ever said Tyvaso DPI revenue had leveled off. I think you should really review these posts you think you remember. Should be easy to find, or not find, since you think it was swamping the board. I suspect your mind is playing tricks on you. I think being a long time investor in MNKD can cause symptoms similar to Long Covid... memory fog and such. Apparently we have not been reading the same Board. Go ahead and go back and review the threads and posts and Tyvaso DPI yourself. The dampening and shade thrown on DPI growth is quite apparent. |
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Post by jkendra on Mar 8, 2024 15:27:53 GMT -5
I’d have to agree. Tyvaso growth has really been outperforming. The 17M on manufacturing related revs alone with still more upcoming expansions and ‘tweaks’ is very promising. My brain is still fixated on the royalty money being realized once the inventory build up sale is completed. Could we be over $70M in revs by Q1 2024? Is it a dream or actually closer to reality?
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 8, 2024 15:48:11 GMT -5
If I recall correctly, even UTHR commented with some pride on the Sagaard valuation of Tyvaso DPI royalties in the purchase of 1% of MNKD's 10%. Sagaard is putting their money where their mouth is, and you can bet they didn't do it on a whim or in kindness or in fond memory of Al or any other of the implied or otherwise ridiculous BS you read here from time to time. MNKD has been kicking ass and taking names and so has UTHR. That's business.
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Post by letitride on Mar 8, 2024 15:48:13 GMT -5
Dont know what the rest of you are thinking but Im planning on this run getting legs and taking me to Vegas I will be able to hear Mike just fine from my bar stool.
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 8, 2024 16:12:31 GMT -5
Those charts must be wrong. The resident "experts" have been swamping the Board for a long time that there really isn't any significant revenue growth. Per them, no real Afrezza growth at all. And Tyvaso DPI royalties have leveled off, are factored in and don't provide much prospect of raising the share price going forward. At least that's what we've been told. Ad nauseam. We definitely see things different. When I see afrezza revenue growth from 43M to 55m I cry. I don't see that as significant. This is why I drink my bourbon for quantity and not quality. This is a super blockbuster drug and the biggest reason its not selling is because PWDs can't get it. Either they get denied by insurance or they are not willing to pay $1200 a box. Tyvaso DPI is what it is. It will pay the bills. Thats it. Its not making MNKD rich. We have our 1% upfront with the $150M in the bank. What will make MNKD rich is afrezza. We need to; fix the label; get SoC updates; fix the cost. Doing those 3 things would get me excited. Do you know what else would get me excited starting trials for Saxenda DPI. I saw Novo announced their latest pill results and they are so excited about faster weight lose sooner. My god, how much do they want to paralyze the stomach? I have been reading about all these women who now want to get off Ozempic/Wegovy but they are looking for a low cost maintenace tool. Some are cutting shots back to every two or three weeks. Maybe a puff a day of Saxenda DPI at $99 a box a month would fit the bill. www.cnbc.com/2024/03/08/novo-nordisk-ceo-weight-loss-pill-could-become-a-best-in-class-drug.html |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 8, 2024 16:28:00 GMT -5
The biggest reason Afrezza is not selling is because doctors are not prescribing it. To say persons with diabetes cannot get Afrezza is misleading.
I didn't used to be convinced that full-scale multi-arm (expensive and time-consuming) clinical trials were fundamental to marketing Afrezza. Stevil, Matt, Bill McCullough, agedhippie, and others changed my mind. That was a bitter pill to swallow (pun intended) because MannKind simply didn't have the wherewithal to fund it. That is changing.
But, its ok not to obsess about Afrezza. MannKind is profitable and has good prospects. Don't believe me? 10 straight days of share price gains starting the day after the last earnings call. Money talks. BS walks.
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 8, 2024 16:43:59 GMT -5
The biggest reason Afrezza is not selling is because doctors are not prescribing it. To say persons with diabetes cannot get Afrezza is misleading. I didn't used to be convinced that full-scale multi-arm (expensive and time-consuming) clinical trials were fundamental to marketing Afrezza. Stevil, Matt, Bill McCullough, agedhippie, and others changed my mind. That was a bitter pill to swallow (pun intended) because MannKind simply didn't have the wherewithal to fund it. That is changing. But, its ok not to obsess about Afrezza. MannKind is profitable and has good prospects. Don't believe me? 10 straight days of share price gains starting the day after the last earnings call. Money talks. BS walks. I have to strongly disagree with you. We have key accounts and those doctors are more than willing to prescribe. VDex is more than willing to prescribe. Then what happens? T2s can't get it, insurance will deny them. Ginger V. and the rest of the T1s can't get it because insurance denies coverage. MNKD knows this. That why we have web pages and a help line. Nearly all 1st prescribed PWD gets denied. That is a fact. Even Ginger V. thought she may be taking advantage of the $99 deal which is available after insurance has denied you. What big study do you want? Cipla just ran a big study. Whats the matter with that? We ran the 175. Whats the matter with that? Inhale-3 will fix the label for T1s which the 171 screwed up. The kids study is a big trial and the kids will get approved. Whats the matter with that trial. The problem is once the kids get approved insurance will deny coverage and the moms with have to show another medical condition like needle pheobia. Do you want to run studies to show keeping TITR reduces heart attacks. They have already been done. What did Mike say the Inhale-3 is costing $30M? |
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Post by jkendra on Mar 8, 2024 16:59:11 GMT -5
We definitely see things different. When I see afrezza revenue growth from 43M to 55m I cry. I don't see that as significant. This is why I drink my bourbon for quantity and not quality. This is a super blockbuster drug and the biggest reason its not selling is because PWDs can't get it. Either they get denied by insurance or they are not willing to pay $1200 a box. Tyvaso DPI is what it is. It will pay the bills. Thats it. Its not making MNKD rich. We have our 1% upfront with the $150M in the bank. What will make MNKD rich is afrezza. We need to; fix the label; get SoC updates; fix the cost. Doing those 3 things would get me excited.
MannKind sounds like a very risky and anxiety-ridden investment for you. Honestly you probably should not be invested at all. Knowing your thoughts on this company I'm afraid to hear what you think about Liquidia.
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Post by sayhey24 on Mar 8, 2024 18:01:12 GMT -5
We definitely see things different. When I see afrezza revenue growth from 43M to 55m I cry. I don't see that as significant. This is why I drink my bourbon for quantity and not quality. This is a super blockbuster drug and the biggest reason its not selling is because PWDs can't get it. Either they get denied by insurance or they are not willing to pay $1200 a box. Tyvaso DPI is what it is. It will pay the bills. Thats it. Its not making MNKD rich. We have our 1% upfront with the $150M in the bank. What will make MNKD rich is afrezza. We need to; fix the label; get SoC updates; fix the cost. Doing those 3 things would get me excited.
MannKind sounds like a very risky and anxiety-ridden investment for you. Honestly you probably should not be invested at all. Knowing your thoughts on this company I'm afraid to hear what you think about Liquidia.
What is the downside risk with MNKD now? Back in 2018 we nearly shut the doors but now we have Tyvaso DPI which will continue to pay the bills. When I had my companies making payroll was always the top concern. MNKD no longer has that issue. With MNKD its all upside and how much can be realized. We have a super blockbuster and some people are super happy with $55M in sales. Sorry, I am not. We should be doing $B's by now. With just Tyvaso DPI we are in a $3.50 to $5.50 trading range. With Inhale-3 maybe we bump up a bit and with the kids even more. However Inhale-3 is a small slice of the T1 market which is 1/11th of the diabetes market. The kids are also insulin dependent (mainly T1s) and that total market is only 20k. Maybe we get to a range of $7.50 to $10. To break out of that we need to fix the cost issue and break into the T2 market. What I can tell you is buying at $3.50 and selling at $5.50 has worked very well for a number of years. What does get me worked up is when Mike gives up on the T2 market. When Mike doesn't do studies which should be done. When Mike shows symptom's of Stockholm Syndrome being held captive by the PBMs. When I talk to a CEO of a BP and he says he never heard of Mike and the list goes on. What really got me worked up was spending $15M on V-Go and then another $5M trying to turn it around and then saying we have no money to run a few pilot studies. How about spending $6M on the "Seeing is Believing" campaign. How is that possible? How about the "flying hamburger"? How many $Ms were spent there when the open secret is these commercials are not bought to sell product. Its not the investment which is anxiety-ridden. Its the stupid things we continue to do like not fix the cost issue and then telling the shareholders the greatest advancement in T2 care is no longer going to be sold into the T2 market because we have V-Go and its going in the "reps bags" for the T2s. As far as Liquidia, I really don't think too much about them. I looked at the Print technology years ago when they were talking about using it for insulin. I thought FDKP got better lung coverage and was not sure how Print would scale. At this point maybe they will get a small slice of the Tyvaso DPI market. Maybe they will start a price war. In either case I will be surprised if they make it. I see them more like MNKD in 2018 without the "Cult Investors" who would not let MNKD put the closed sign on the front door and they don't have Al through the foundation still providing a safety net. In a single word I would say they are "doomed". Maybe a BP will buy them out at fire sale prices. |
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Post by ktim on Mar 8, 2024 19:09:24 GMT -5
Who on earth has been saying that? Granted there was the somewhat exaggerated Tyvaso royalty growth rate due to inventory build that then decelerated (not flattening revenue). That led to a bit of surprise/disappointment for some since the method of recognition wasn't fully appreciated earlier. But no one that I recall ever said Tyvaso DPI revenue had leveled off. I think you should really review these posts you think you remember. Should be easy to find, or not find, since you think it was swamping the board. I suspect your mind is playing tricks on you. I think being a long time investor in MNKD can cause symptoms similar to Long Covid... memory fog and such. Apparently we have not been reading the same Board. Go ahead and go back and review the threads and posts and Tyvaso DPI yourself. The dampening and shade thrown on DPI growth is quite apparent. Just reviewed them after past few earnings calls. Can't find any like you describe. Let me know if you can show any such. Perhaps there was some person that said that, but the board certainly wasn't swamped with it, because I can't find it. Though quite frankly I don't know what dampening and shade throwing would mean. I'm pretty certain no one said T DPI growth was stopping as you claimed. If the bar is now "dampening" that seems a dramatic change in your claim, and could mean almost anything. For instance when someone recently was saying they expected revenue for MNKD to double again in 2024, I pointed out that was way more growth than MNKD has released as projections. I suppose that could be considered "dampening"... as in calling into question something that to me seems unrealistic. I believe this board is supposed to be a place for discussion of topics like that, and that people shouldn't try to bully others with malicious accusations into not expressing their opinions. If you hold a grudge against people you think are morally deficient because they don't believe and do exactly as you do, you can find ways of pointing out your differences in opinion without making things up constantly to make personal attacks. Feel free to say I'm throwing shade because I don't expect MNKD shares to trade at $100 by year end. That would be an honest observation about me. I suppose in the modern world of "anything thing is possible if you can dream it" that would be "shade"  |
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Post by ktim on Mar 8, 2024 19:20:20 GMT -5
MannKind sounds like a very risky and anxiety-ridden investment for you. Honestly you probably should not be invested at all. Knowing your thoughts on this company I'm afraid to hear what you think about Liquidia.
What is the downside risk with MNKD now? Back in 2018 we nearly shut the doors but now we have Tyvaso DPI which will continue to pay the bills. When I had my companies making payroll was always the top concern. MNKD no longer has that issue. ...As far as Liquidia, I really don't think too much about them. I looked at the Print technology years ago when they were talking about using it for insulin. I thought FDKP got better lung coverage and was not sure how Print would scale. At this point maybe they will get a small slice of the Tyvaso DPI market. Maybe they will start a price war. In either case I will be surprised if they make it. I see them more like MNKD in 2018 without the "Cult Investors" who would not let MNKD put the closed sign on the front door and they don't have Al through the foundation still providing a safety net. In a single word I would say they are "doomed". Maybe a BP will buy them out at fire sale prices. I suspect this is a downside risk that is affecting share price. You could be right that Liquida won't do well as an investment over the long run, but the question of how much of a disruption they pose I think adds a discount factor to Tyvaso DPI revenue estimates in institutional minds. Personally I think UTHR one way or another isn't going to allow them to become a big problem. And the royalty stream buyer doesn't seem to believe they pose a big risk. |
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Post by jkendra on Mar 8, 2024 19:24:24 GMT -5
I'm sorry you have set such lofty goals for this investment. I guess that's why most of us invest because we dream big. I can't speak to how successful your day trading with MNKD has been but man you do put a lot of weight on your shoulders and you don't even work for the company.
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Post by casualinvestor on Mar 9, 2024 0:18:17 GMT -5
Tyvaso DPI is what it is. It will pay the bills. Thats it. Its not making MNKD rich. We have our 1% upfront with the $150M in the bank. What will make MNKD rich is afrezza. We need to; fix the label; get SoC updates; fix the cost. Doing those 3 things would get me excited. I have an issue with that viewpoint. I don't disagree that Afrezza has failed its potential for many reasons. But Tyvaso-DPI is not just a stepping stone to the Afrezza promised land. Nor will clofazimine (or another drug in the pipeline) be the next stepping stone for it. |
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Post by lennymnkd on Mar 9, 2024 1:12:20 GMT -5
If commercial are not meant to sell product (secret) what are they meant for ? I wanna learn !
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Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 9, 2024 8:26:55 GMT -5
What is the downside risk with MNKD now? Back in 2018 we nearly shut the doors but now we have Tyvaso DPI which will continue to pay the bills. When I had my companies making payroll was always the top concern. MNKD no longer has that issue. ...As far as Liquidia, I really don't think too much about them. I looked at the Print technology years ago when they were talking about using it for insulin. I thought FDKP got better lung coverage and was not sure how Print would scale. At this point maybe they will get a small slice of the Tyvaso DPI market. Maybe they will start a price war. In either case I will be surprised if they make it. I see them more like MNKD in 2018 without the "Cult Investors" who would not let MNKD put the closed sign on the front door and they don't have Al through the foundation still providing a safety net. In a single word I would say they are "doomed". Maybe a BP will buy them out at fire sale prices. I suspect this is a downside risk that is affecting share price. You could be right that Liquida won't do well as an investment over the long run, but the question of how much of a disruption they pose I think adds a discount factor to Tyvaso DPI revenue estimates in institutional minds. Personally I think UTHR one way or another isn't going to allow them to become a big problem. And the royalty stream buyer doesn't seem to believe they pose a big risk. It feels like the last two weeks since the most recent earnings call the market has said what they think of the “downside risk” affecting the MNKD share price, and in a mildly down market. With downside risk like that, please sir, may I have another? |
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