|
|
Post by sayhey24 on Jun 24, 2024 8:35:33 GMT -5
Study investigator Grazia Aleppo, MD, professor of Medicine and director of the Diabetes Center at Northwestern University, was once an Afrezza skeptic. In the video, she is now clearly convinced that Afrezza should be included in the treatment plan for PWD, especially those who have a hard time managing their disease. In fact, as she saw the results being produced during the trials, she started her own patients on Afrezza. 8:30 - 09:30 (time stamp) Seems she was impressed with the meal time dosing and the ability to dose again (post meal) without the worry of hypo events due to the rapid acting nature of Afrezza. She also mentions safety several times in the interview. www.hcplive.com/view/diabetes-dialogue-inhale-3-and-diabetes-tech-updates-with-grazia-aleppo-mdWhat nice is she seems to have now taken ownership of how good afrezza is. What's a bit shocking is it took an expect 10 years to get on board and realize you can't beat human monomer insulin for speed and control. I guess some people just need to read proboards more. |
|
|
|
Post by harryx1 on Jun 24, 2024 9:02:32 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Jun 24, 2024 9:19:53 GMT -5
Study investigator Grazia Aleppo, MD, professor of Medicine and director of the Diabetes Center at Northwestern University, was once an Afrezza skeptic. In the video, she is now clearly convinced that Afrezza should be included in the treatment plan for PWD, especially those who have a hard time managing their disease. In fact, as she saw the results being produced during the trials, she started her own patients on Afrezza. 8:30 - 09:30 (time stamp) Seems she was impressed with the meal time dosing and the ability to dose again (post meal) without the worry of hypo events due to the rapid acting nature of Afrezza. She also mentions safety several times in the interview. www.hcplive.com/view/diabetes-dialogue-inhale-3-and-diabetes-tech-updates-with-grazia-aleppo-mdWhat nice is she seems to have now taken ownership of how good afrezza is. What's a bit shocking is it took an expect 10 years to get on board and realize you can't beat human monomer insulin for speed and control. I guess some people just need to read proboards more. For those who haven't watched yet: Yes, she really has become convinced and seems like she will be an advocate. Her excitement and enthusiasm on the results is apparent, considering she took it upon herself to change her treatment plans to include Afrezza, before the study was published. She did admit that what took her so long was her concern for the safety profile and that once she was convinced it was safe, she wanted to learn more thus why MNKD was able to get in the door at Northwestern where she is the top expert on diabetes. I got the impression that biotechs line up at the door to NW in order to see her because they respect the level of academia in this field, specifically her work. Now is the time for MNKD to do their part and get these results out to their current salesforce and get it into the hands of doctors. These are the KOLs and research doctors will stop and take a second look. Maybe stevil could chime in and get the opinion of the good doc? |
|
|
|
Post by uvula on Jun 24, 2024 9:31:01 GMT -5
The Dr. Aleppo video is great for Afrezza. Except the last 2 minutes when she says AIDs are great with 80% TIR. Which is of course great for diabetics.
|
|
|
|
Post by letitride on Jun 24, 2024 9:48:13 GMT -5
October may prove to be a true challenge to the A1C against an AIDs. Sounded to me like Grazia Aleppo, MD wants to dial in these doses a bit closer yet.
|
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on Jun 24, 2024 10:50:44 GMT -5
The Dr. Aleppo video is great for Afrezza. Except the last 2 minutes when she says AIDs are great with 80% TIR. Which is of course great for diabetics. When more than 50% of those in the study wanted to stay on afrezza, I think that speaks volumes. This is also the first time in a long time where MNKD did not sell off on the news and the market usually knows. |
|
|
|
Post by Thundersnow on Jun 24, 2024 11:27:49 GMT -5
The Dr. Aleppo video is great for Afrezza. Except the last 2 minutes when she says AIDs are great with 80% TIR. Which is of course great for diabetics. When more than 50% of those in the study wanted to stay on afrezza, I think that speaks volumes. This is also the first time in a long time where MNKD did not sell off on the news and the market usually knows. I agree.....I don't know why a PWD want to wear a device they have to cart around all day. I think this will be big with PEDS. Especially teenagers who are vain and don't want everyone to know they are diabetic. |
|
|
|
Post by sayhey24 on Jun 24, 2024 13:55:00 GMT -5
When more than 50% of those in the study wanted to stay on afrezza, I think that speaks volumes. This is also the first time in a long time where MNKD did not sell off on the news and the market usually knows. I agree.....I don't know why a PWD want to wear a device they have to cart around all day. I think this will be big with PEDS. Especially teenagers who are vain and don't want everyone to know they are diabetic. It was the best thing they had. Al developed the original AID with his CGM but realized no matter how great his algorithm was the RAA going in the pump was too damn slow. Its sad it took the rest of the market 20 years to see Al's genius, again. Then again further AID research and development is probably OTB with the Inhale 3 results and there are going to be a lot of people looking for new jobs. The kids will be the big winners in this once approved. For the 18+ year olds there is nothing stopping them now except cost and to fix that it needs insurance coverage and to get that we need the SoC update. |
|
|
|
Post by hellodolly on Jun 24, 2024 14:01:34 GMT -5
I agree.....I don't know why a PWD want to wear a device they have to cart around all day. I think this will be big with PEDS. Especially teenagers who are vain and don't want everyone to know they are diabetic. It was the best thing they had. Al developed the original AID with his CGM but realized no matter how great his algorithm was the RAA going in the pump was too damn slow. Its sad it took the rest of the market 20 years to see Al's genius, again. Then again further AID research and development is The kids will be the big winners in this once approved. For the 18+ year olds there is nothing stopping them now except cost and to fix that it needs insurance coverage and to get that we need the SoC update. I liked how the SoC was mentioned by the contributors to the video with Dr. Aleppo, essentially "Where do we go from here with the SoC as of this study". Seems the results are generating an interest in the SoC again. |
|
|
|
Post by ktim on Jun 24, 2024 14:17:36 GMT -5
It seems to me when it comes to dosing outside the route of administration no one is talking about the elephant in the room. Physiology and Bio chemistry Afrezza is a monomeric human insulin. They are trying to copy and paste this to a hexameric dose. Maybe they should start by multiplying by 6. I'm pretty sure you are incorrect about that. Units of insulin represent equivalent monomeric insulin molecules. |
|
|
|
Post by celo on Jun 24, 2024 14:25:10 GMT -5
So when it comes to options, those who have been on this board know where I stand. Yes you should always do your own due diligence, but if you have a sizable position in MNKD - 1,000 or more shares, you are missing an opportunity. Right now options in MNKD are somewhat illiquid (meaning tough to trade as there is not a significant amount of volume), and it does not pay much in premium, but you can still make money. We have been selling covered calls in MNKD since 2018 (wish I would have started from the first day I bought MNKD). We have not been aggressive, usually having covered calls on anywhere from 10% to 15% of our MNKD holdings, with a delta ranging from 10 - 20 (usually $.5 to $1.5 out of the money, or above the stock price at the time of the trade). The duration is usually under 90 days but always more than 40 when we initially sell the position. All that is to say we collect between $.1 and $.25 per share sold with every trade (depending on the duration). By way of example, today I sold covered calls on 3% of our MNKD shares. They were Aug 16 calls with a $6 strike price for $.13. If the price goes to $6 by the close date will I be bummed because 3% of our MNKD shares were called away? Heck no because it means 97% of our shares are worth 18% more than they are right now. By doing this consistently, while only risking 10 to 15% of our shares at any one time, we have lowered our average cost basis on MNKD by 45% from $2.60 to $1.43. Using today's price of $4.88 we have taken what would have been a total gain of 88% and turned it into a gain of 241%. As the price goes higher we will be able to collect more premium as a percent of our cost basis, or choose to take even less risk, continuing to lower our cost basis. Imagine when MTOI is right and the stock goes to $10. The trade we made today would be worth close to $.30 per share in premium for the same amount of risk. Options can seem risky and daunting in terms of educating oneself, but if you are truly an investor, you owe it to yourself to learn about selling covered calls against positions where you have 300, 400, 500 or more shares. Trust me when I say, if I can do it, anyone can! You simply need to develop your mechanics (rules), stick to them and be consistent. Every large broker has educational webinars or YouTube Videos on selling covered calls. I personally like the folks over at Tasty Trade on YouTube. Good luck. Any chance you can give an update of what the options market looks like? Could be painting the picture if this has legs. |
|
|
|
Post by castlerockchris on Jun 24, 2024 16:24:43 GMT -5
My read on the options market as it relates to MNKD is that it is bullish, but with not much near term conviction. Today's put to call ratio was 1:24.7 Meaning there was zero interest in buying or selling puts, which is bullish. I say there is not much near term conviction as there just wasn't much volume in the at or near the money strikes in June, July or August, and November. Looking at August, 7% of the open call interests in the 4.50, 5.00, 5.50, and 6 strikes traded today. And it wasn't because there weren't buyers. There simply weren't enough sellers at the bid or even at the mid price, obviously meaning people holding the call options feel they will be able to sell for a higher price down the road. Surprisingly, volume on the Jan 25 Calls was 14% of the open interest in the 4.50, 5.00, 5.50 and 7 strikes, with a couple of big trades in the Jan 5 and 5.5 strikes. Someone might point out that there was significant volume in the Jul 5, 5.5 strike call, but I would argue 77% of the volume was in one order, and that person either really needed the position badly or they have amazing conviction because the bid was 0.0 and the ask was .15 and the entire order was executed at the ask (desperate or a rookie move or big conviction the stock is going to move >$.23 in the next 11 days - not sure which and it only cost the roughly $10 grand to pull off).
I am intrigued by the open interest, today's volume and the price of the Jan 25 calls with the $7 strike, with a bid of .25 and an ask of .4, we are finally seeing some juice in the premium, although I think it really should be priced closer to $.70 given the 35 delta attached to the strike. That is a total return of 35% and a 62% annualized if the stock hits $7.00 by expiration. The open interest in the $7 call is 23% higher than the next largest open interest - which is the $5 strike. This might be due to the fact that the CBOE does not offer a $6 strike. We are currently long the Jan 25, $3.5 calls which I bought on 12/21/23 for a net of roughly $.76. I might be tempted to sell the $7 strike call against some of the long calls for $.40 - $.50 if I can get it. If the shares were to be called away we will have made a 426% return 13 months.
Bottom line the options market believes the stock has room to run, just not necessarily in the near term.
|
|
|
|
Post by letitride on Jun 24, 2024 16:40:27 GMT -5
It seems to me when it comes to dosing outside the route of administration no one is talking about the elephant in the room. Physiology and Bio chemistry Afrezza is a monomeric human insulin. They are trying to copy and paste this to a hexameric dose. Maybe they should start by multiplying by 6. I'm pretty sure you are incorrect about that. Units of insulin represent equivalent monomeric insulin molecules. I have no degree in anything but work. Yet the consistent under dosing suggest to me somethings far less than equal. Personally you put this in my hands given everything I have read to date. I would multiply by six then half it for the sake of quick in and out affect for starters. |
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Jun 24, 2024 16:42:36 GMT -5
Excellent analysis, thanks castle.
|
|
|
|
Post by letitride on Jun 24, 2024 17:43:24 GMT -5
All I have to say is I have bought July, August and November $4 & $5 and calls and am up over 100% on most. Currently shopping $7 January and $9 February calls small position in both already. Have sold some shares against my in the money calls. I will allow them to assign all thru November as long as the trend is my friend.
|
|
