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Post by stockwhisperer on Jul 30, 2024 16:54:55 GMT -5
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Post by awesomo on Jul 30, 2024 17:01:15 GMT -5
Haven't done a premarket earnings release/call since Q3 2022. Let the speculation commence!
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Post by mymann on Jul 30, 2024 18:44:38 GMT -5
It's like ringing the nasdaq opening bell.
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Post by ktim on Jul 30, 2024 18:45:21 GMT -5
With one of the biggest cheerleaders for MNKD being in Hawaii, you'd think they'd be more considerate, but that's just my... lol
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Jul 30, 2024 21:21:10 GMT -5
Here are my estimates, sharing in time to be proven way wrong tomorrow! ~$78m in Q2 MNKD revenue, up ~20% from Q1 and ~60% YoY.
In Q2 I think Tyvaso DPI is the star. Rationale:
- Between Q4 and Q1 we saw $10m in increased revenue across royalties and manufacturing
- UT has a few slides on Tyvaso / revenue that clearly show Tyvaso sales are seasonal with large increases between Q1 and Q2
- Martine’s commentary that we are starting to see an inflection to the upside in Tyvaso sales
Take these together and I think we could see $10 - $15m increase in revenue from Tyvaso DPI (royalties + manufacturing) in Q2. So I’ll call it a $12m revenue increase with any revenue increase from EBU as upside.
Of course then the big question becomes - how much of this will drop to the bottom line!? With positive earnings, our forward-looking PE ratio will become dramatically under-valued if we see growth that is anything like what I wrote above. And do not forget UT's goal of 25 by 25...if they get anywhere close, it will need to start soon, and we will be on fire!
Let's see what tomorrow at 6:30 AM brings!
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Post by Clement on Jul 30, 2024 21:55:25 GMT -5
^ royalty / manufacturing ratio for MNKD will increase due to conversion from free drug program. Medicare reimbursement improvement for T-DPI in 2024. Royalty falls to the bottom line.
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Post by radgray68 on Jul 31, 2024 12:10:51 GMT -5
I’m curious how much the “Kitting” will net us on the manufacturing side. Add in the increased sales staff by UTHR, seasonal fluctuation and simple organic growth and we could blow it out this quarter.
I just don’t know how much the new trials are costing us. Could break even after increasing costs.
I’m also looking forward to some color on the cross-license with Pulmatrix and the new lab we’ve taken over.
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Post by uvula on Jul 31, 2024 18:43:20 GMT -5
Tarheel, Aug 7 not Aug 1.
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Jul 31, 2024 19:40:05 GMT -5
Tarheel, Aug 7 not Aug 1. Tarheel was talking about UTHR ER this morning as we can dial into MNKD results by as we learn the T-DPI revenue. |
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Post by uvula on Jul 31, 2024 19:48:13 GMT -5
Tarheel, Aug 7 not Aug 1. Tarheel was talking about UTHR ER this morning as we can dial into MNKD results by as we learn the T-DPI revenue. Oops. Of course. Sorry |
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Post by wyattdog on Aug 5, 2024 14:24:20 GMT -5
Mannkind corp< expected to post earnings of 1 cent per share- Earnings Preview 08/05/2024 11:55* MannKind Corp is expected to show a rise in quarterly revenue when it reports results on August 7 for the period ending June 30 2024 * The Danbury Connecticut-based company is expected to report a 33.3% increase in revenue to $64.813 million from $48.61 million a year ago, according to the mean estimate from 4 analysts, based on LSEG data. * ?LSEG's mean analyst estimate for MannKind Corp is for earnings of 1 cent per share. * The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 4 "strong buy" or "buy," 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell." * The mean earnings estimate of analysts was unchanged in the last three months. ? * Wall Street's median 12-month price target for MannKind Corp is $6.50?, above? its last closing price of $5.34.
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Aug 5, 2024 14:26:37 GMT -5
Such an easy beat!
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Post by cedafuntennis on Aug 5, 2024 19:20:48 GMT -5
UTHR T-DPI was up 33%. I am expecting 90% of that to transpose to MNKD, hence at least 27% increase in T-DPI for MNKD
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Post by tarheelblue004 on Aug 5, 2024 20:45:47 GMT -5
Before UT’s earnings I went with $78m revenue estimate for MNKD Q2 based largely on the $10m increase in Tyvaso DPI revenue between Q4 23 and Q1 24 (see above). But a large % of that increase came from Collaborations & Services, which is hard to forecast, even with UT’s Q2 results (and 10Q) now public.
It’s clear that TDPI royalties will increase by $3m this quarter over last due to the $30m TDPI revenue uptick. I think it is realistic to estimate C&S revenue matching with a $3m increase over Q1. Giving MNKD a $6m TDPI revenue increase over Q1 24 and putting us at $72m for the quarter, before we see anything from EBU.
So with UT’s results out, I will update my guesstimate for MNKD to be $72m - $78m. The high end of the range would come from better than expected C&S revenue or EBU revenue.
How crazy is it that analyst estimates are $64m in revenue and $0.01 / share in earnings, both lower than what MNKD already achieved in Q1?
GLTA !
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rebby
Researcher
Posts: 79
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Post by rebby on Aug 5, 2024 21:45:55 GMT -5
Before UT’s earnings I went with $78m revenue estimate for MNKD Q2 based largely on the $10m increase in Tyvaso DPI revenue between Q4 23 and Q1 24 (see above). But a large % of that increase came from Collaborations & Services, which is hard to forecast, even with UT’s Q2 results (and 10Q) now public. It’s clear that TDPI royalties will increase by $3m this quarter over last due to the $30m TDPI revenue uptick. I think it is realistic to estimate C&S revenue matching with a $3m increase over Q1. Giving MNKD a $6m TDPI revenue increase over Q1 24 and putting us at $72m for the quarter, before we see anything from EBU. So with UT’s results out, I will update my guesstimate for MNKD to be $72m - $78m. The high end of the range would come from better than expected C&S revenue or EBU revenue. How crazy is it that analyst estimates are $64m in revenue and $0.01 / share in earnings, both lower than what MNKD already achieved in Q1? GLTA ! 72M was my number before UTHR EC…if that’s the floor, that’s a great sign! |
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