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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 24, 2024 7:46:08 GMT -5
Re: BI partnership after good Ph 1 results Upfront payment would be proportional to present value of future sales. In this case, that could be huge. This makes a great deal of sense to me. Kind of front running future royalties if I understand you correctly. I don’t remember who wrote the post that suggested a more common royalty percentage for companies in a position to bargain is 30% as compared to the 10% that MannKind agreed to for Tyvaso DPI. I would love to have that confirmed or corrected. Can you estimate the upfront payment on PV of future sales? Or does anybody know of examples we could review to draw from? Well, as many posts as we’ve had in this thread on a real or imaginary poster named kevinmik, maybe we should have kept the thread title the same (because of his many posts [elsewhere than Proboards] speculating a buyout of MannKind. Anyway, if any readers have more on what are the likely upfront payments and royalties of a partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim (not a buyout) for nintedanib DPI (presumably called Ofev DPI in a partnership), I am interested in what they can share. I tried to find a little more but didn’t spend too much time on it. I did ask ChatGPT and it wasn’t helpful with respect to upfront payments (basically said it vary significantly from millions to many millions) but did suggest the upper end of royalties would be 15%. I hope its wrong. |
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Post by runner on Aug 24, 2024 10:59:13 GMT -5
To add to that Kevin is a real person, lives in New York City, and has been to shareholder meetings, and I know people that have met Peppy. I believe she lives in Minnesota:-) Yes, I believe I met Kevin at the 2015 shareholder meeting at the Mannkind facility in Danbury, Connecticut. |
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Post by uvula on Aug 24, 2024 11:44:56 GMT -5
Every time something big happens, like selling 1% of the uthr royalty payments, I say to myself "Wow, I would never have thought of that. I guess that is why I am not running a company. Or even employed for that matter."
I am confident mnkd will have some big announcements in the next few years. I am equally confident that these announcements won't be about things we speculate about on proboards.
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Post by hellodolly on Aug 24, 2024 11:52:30 GMT -5
Anyone familiar with the patent expirations? Seems to me that an important consideration for a buyout are the expirations. Who wants to buy into a biz when the IP, etc are going off patent in the next 2 or 3 years. Will these patents be recognized or shot down? BP will want a long pathway to value creation to achieve maximum peak sales, which increases the strategic value for the acquirer, if you expect a premium. For example, personally speaking, I believe the "Composition of Matter IP" to be the most important and strongest of the IP on the list. Methods and dosing are a few of the others.
So, I dug those out of the last 10K from May 2024 Annual Report:
Our Technosphere drug delivery platform enjoys patent protection relating to the powder, its manufacture, its use for pulmonary delivery of drugs as well as protection related to our inhalers and associated cartridges. We have additional patent coverage relating to methods for the treatment of diabetes using Afrezza. Overall, Afrezza is protected by approximately 630 issued patents and 40 pending patent applications in the United States and selected jurisdictions around the world, the longest-lived of which will expire in 2032. Similarly, Tyvaso DPI is protected by approximately 400 issued patents in the United States and elsewhere and an additional 45 pending patent applications. Currently, the longest-lived patent protection for Tyvaso DPI in our portfolio will expire in 2035. Various features of the commercial V-Go device are protected by a portfolio of approximately 110 issued patents and another 18 pending patent applications, the longest-lived of which will expire in 2033. Additional patents and patent applications are expected to provide protection for products in our pipeline, including MNKD-101, MNKD-201, our BluHale inhalation-profiling apparatus and various development tools. Our entire worldwide portfolio consists of approximately 1,200 issued patents and approximately 200 pending patent applications We expect to file further patent applications as our research and development efforts continue.
And as I stated above regarding challenges in the future:
In addition, because patent positions can be highly uncertain and frequently involve complex legal and factual questions, the breadth of claims obtained in any application or the enforceability of issued patents cannot be confidently predicted.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 24, 2024 12:17:11 GMT -5
Every time something big happens, like selling 1% of the uthr royalty payments, I say to myself "Wow, I would never have thought of that. I guess that is why I am not running a company. Or even employed for that matter." I am confident mnkd will have some big announcements in the next few years. I am equally confident that these announcements won't be about things we speculate about on proboards. I agree with the “I would never have thought of that.” sentiment, but in this case of Boehringer Ingelheim’s Ofev oral nintedanib patent expiration (on the nintedanib compound) in 2026, and the importance of revenue from Ofev in BI’s income statement, I feel certain they have to be putting a strategy in place to protect the revenue from their 2nd best selling drug (behind Jardiance). It may be BI does something that I would never have thought of, or MNKD for that matter, but I do not think BI will just turn a blind eye to MannKind’s nintedanib DPI Phase 1 trial if the results indicate MNKD’s nintedanib DPI will put a significant dent in BI’s forecasted multi-billion dollar revenue from Ofev. |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 25, 2024 7:10:41 GMT -5
kevinmik posts a lot of interesting information and theories. He knows he is welcome to post here if he ever wants to. When it comes to his predictions, especially the buyout one, he is like the boy who cried wolf.
But that doesn’t mean one day the wolf won’t actually show up…
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Post by hellodolly on Aug 25, 2024 12:37:28 GMT -5
kevinmik posts a lot of interesting information and theories. He knows he is welcome to post here if he ever wants to. When it comes to his predictions, especially the buyout one, he is like the boy who cried wolf. But that doesn’t mean one day the wolf won’t actually show up… "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." Kevinmik hasn't been right once in ten years on buyouts. "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while." Kevinmik has some catching up to do. |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 25, 2024 13:15:41 GMT -5
kevinmik posts a lot of interesting information and theories. He knows he is welcome to post here if he ever wants to. When it comes to his predictions, especially the buyout one, he is like the boy who cried wolf. But that doesn’t mean one day the wolf won’t actually show up… "Even a broken clock is right twice a day." Kevinmik hasn't been right once in ten years on buyouts. "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while." Kevinmik has some catching up to do. Reminds me of similar words I used to say about certain posters here. While accurate, it didn’t always go over well. 🤣 I try to be more diplomatic these days. 😃 |
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Post by ktim on Aug 26, 2024 13:44:09 GMT -5
"kevinmik posts a lot of interesting information and theories" Equating them to theories is rather generous. A theory needs to be something that can broken down into testable hypotheses. Daydreaming about buyouts rarely involves testable hypotheses.  |
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 26, 2024 15:06:44 GMT -5
"kevinmik posts a lot of interesting information and theories" Equating them to theories is rather generous. A theory needs to be something that can broken down into testable hypotheses. Daydreaming about buyouts rarely involves testable hypotheses. I don't think a MNKD buyout is likely but it becomes more of a possibility IF:
- Nintedanib Phase 1 readout in 4Q is very positive
- MannKind declines an offer from Boehringer Ingelheim to partner on Ofev DPI
If MNKD refused to partner, BI could consider a buyout a reasonable, if more expensive, alternative to partnership. They certainly have the wherewithal to pursue M&A to protect their Ofev revenue. |
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Post by cjm18 on Sept 18, 2024 0:57:57 GMT -5
Maybe a business deal …
The distance between Ridgefield, CT, and Danbury, CT, is approximately 9 miles (14 kilometers) by car. It usually takes about 15 minutes to drive between the two towns, depending on traffic conditions.
Which company has their US hq 9 miles from mannkind?
Mannkind has two former executives from the company.
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