Let's talk PEDS

[Clement]

^ practical math.

[prcgorman2]

I prefer EPS and P/E versus P/S. The reason I prefer price to earnins is P/E accounts for costs that are ignored in the P/S evaluation.

I got a little lost in the discussion between radgray68 and cjm18 . The $150M for each 10% of the pediatric market was, I think, revenue, not earnings. Poor awesomo has had to consistently remind me revenue is not earnings. To estimate earnings we have to subtract expenses, interest, and taxes. I haven’t tried to look at the balance sheet or income statement close enough to know those allocations for the MannKind Insulin Business Unit (IBU) but perhaps $70M would be fair?

So 10% of the Pediatric market would yield $80M divided by 275M shares or a little less than 30 cents EPS. If we use the arguably conservative 17:1 P/E ratio, That’s about $5.10 per share on the strength of 10% of the market. Tyvaso royalties and blue sky would of course add to that. Assuming the $70M in expenses, interest, and taxes is relatively flat, then 30% of the Pediatric market would yield $370M divided by 275M shares or about $1.35 EPS and about $22.87 per share.

I continue to wonder what India (Cipla) may contribute to the MannKind IBU. We’re reminded the margin will be slim but we remember the market is huge. Will Afrezza be approved for Pediatric use, or will that require another trial? Regardless, any way you slice it, pediatric approval could provide substantial help to the bottom line.

[agedhippie]

Getting 10% of the pediatrics market may be easier said than done. The comparison is between Afrezza and pens (MDI), not between Afrezza and AID pumps like the Omnipod 5. As Mike pointed out, the competition in the market is Omnipod 5 and not MDI. Getting traction will rely on the pediatric endos preferring Afrezza over pumps which will not be easy.

[prcgorman2]

I agree, but perhaps less difficult to achieve than adult T1s and T2s. I think there could be plenty of kids that would be happy not to wear a pump.

[porkini]

Dec 1, 2024 10:51:57 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

I prefer EPS and P/E versus P/S. The reason I prefer price to earnins is P/E accounts for costs that are ignored in the P/S evaluation.

I got a little lost in the discussion between radgray68 and cjm18 . The $150M for each 10% of the pediatric market was, I think, revenue, not earnings. Poor awesomo has had to consistently remind me revenue is not earnings. To estimate earnings we have to subtract expenses, interest, and taxes. I haven’t tried to look at the balance sheet or income statement close enough to know those allocations for the MannKind Insulin Business Unit (IBU) but perhaps $70M would be fair?

So 10% of the Pediatric market would yield $80M divided by 275M shares or a little less than 30 cents EPS. If we use the arguably conservative 17:1 P/E ratio, That’s about $5.10 per share on the strength of 10% of the market. Tyvaso royalties and blue sky would of course add to that. Assuming the $70M in expenses, interest, and taxes is relatively flat, then 30% of the Pediatric market would yield $370M divided by 275M shares or about $1.35 EPS and about $22.87 per share.

I continue to wonder what India (Cipla) may contribute to the MannKind IBU. We’re reminded the margin will be slim but we remember the market is huge. Will Afrezza be approved for Pediatric use, or will that require another trial? Regardless, any way you slice it, pediatric approval could provide substantial help to the bottom line.

Not sure, but I think:
    IBU = EBU (Endocrine Business Unit)

There is not an IBU, unless we're talking beer?
(thebeerbabe.com/what-is-ibu-in-beer/)

[agedhippie]

Dec 1, 2024 11:31:28 GMT -5 prcgorman2 said:

I agree, but perhaps less difficult to achieve than adult T1s and T2s. I think there could be plenty of kids that would be happy not to wear a pump.

Nobody likes wearing a pump, but he trade off can be worthwhile.

With kids the benefit is the parents' peace of mind as they can see the numbers, watch the insulin dosing, and even administer doses, all while being remote. This was the reason for Nightscout that spawned the #WeAreNotWaiting movement - the desire to remotely monitor and control their kids diabetes.