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Post by spiro on Dec 26, 2014 10:03:27 GMT -5
I just had a long conversation with the crazy Spiro. He believes that the recent 14% increase in MNKD's share price from $5 has been precipitated by a small wave of short covering into tax loss selling. The tax loss selling has kept the upward movement of MNKD share price somewhat muted. It has also become apparent that just about all of the longs have finally noticed that blinding light at the end of the tunnel and have become even more entrenched in their positions. I might exclude Biotech from this group. The street chatter from doctor's, SNY reps and patients is not going unnoticed by the shorts. As the launch approaches a new wave of buying will start to push MNKD's share price towards double digits after January 1st. The shorts are trapped and have no exit strategy. Some institutions are sitting back and waiting for short attempts to flash crash MNKD and happily buy cheap shares.
Spiro here, anxiously awaiting 2015. I wonder if MNKD shorts are excited about next year?
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 26, 2014 12:59:05 GMT -5
Spiro, you ought to at least disclose that you had your conversation with the Crazy Spiro via Skype, since he's already in Siberia!
I sold some Jan2016 covered calls at $6 strike (only got .15 for those), but if they take the shares, so be it. Bought a few Jan2017 calls at a $2.50 strike, for $3.75, so not too bad a premium for two years, especially with shorts being "trapped."
And trust me, Spiro, the shorts are excited about next year, and the way they will leave us both dumbfounded!! Not sure how they are gonna do it, but they'll try to come up with something, and it may well involve North Korea. Perhaps the Crazy Spiro can stop them, he's not far away.
Looking forward to the banter in 2015!
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Post by spiro on Dec 26, 2014 13:18:58 GMT -5
Baba, you could be right, the shorts may be looking forward to shorting more when MNKD hits $20 next year. But it sure looks like the smart shorts are starting to move on for now. BTW, no one knows the crazy Spiro better than I do. He is only crazy about 1% of the time.
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 26, 2014 13:27:43 GMT -5
Spiro,
With only one week left of tax loss selling remaining, this offset will disappear and we'll have a better sense of sentiment. I'm noticing chatter picking up among diabetics chatrooms and the only significant concern I detected is from Type I diabetics who seem dismayed that Afrezza is not being offered in smaller doses. Buying pressure on pps may increase, both from new investors and from short interests buying to return borrowed shares, as we approach the launch of Afrezza in the U.S.
The trading volume remains anemic, but I expect daily volumes to approach 15-20 million shares within three weeks. When the launch occurs and we finally see what Sanofi reveals for marketing Afrezza, the large number of short interests may finally begin their exodus in earnest. The smart ones will cover and take long positions if they haven't lost a lot of their cash, but I have no data to estimate what percentage of short interests have above normal intelligence (chuckle). This will very likely create enough upward pressure to overwhelm short manipulation.
Afrezza pricing will be announced pre-launch... A price that is comparable to injected insulin will trigger a breakout. An announced price that is lower-per-unit of injected insulin will cause a massive breakout and we will see share price return to the teen$. I think we know the demand will be there. If Sanofi doesn't get greedy and over-price Afrezza, shorts will definitely be covering.
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Post by spiro on Dec 26, 2014 13:46:17 GMT -5
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Post by kc on Dec 26, 2014 14:10:21 GMT -5
Seems like an end of year standoff. No buyers or sellers. might not even break 2,000,000 shares today. Now what is that all about? Hmmm I just wonder what is up with our stock.
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Post by ashiwi on Dec 26, 2014 15:07:52 GMT -5
We all know about crazy Spiro, but the only thing making me crazy are these dam snow flakes on my monitor. I moved to FL so I don't have to see snow.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2014 15:38:02 GMT -5
".............the only thing making me crazy are these dam snow flakes on my monitor. Yeah, we are getting a real snow job at this site in more ways than one. |
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Post by liane on Dec 26, 2014 16:48:01 GMT -5
We all know about crazy Spiro, but the only thing making me crazy are these dam snow flakes on my monitor. I moved to FL so I don't have to see snow. Bah Humbug! |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2014 17:04:10 GMT -5
Keep an eye on $7 and $8 puts expiring in 21 days. These are where karps 23,000 puts reside. Will he roll them, sell them off beforehand, exercise and cover, or exercise and hold to cover later?
My gut is he won't have cash laying around to exercise, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. If he truly believed the crap he shoveled he will roll them out.
Thoughts?
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Post by biotec on Dec 26, 2014 18:07:13 GMT -5
I just had a long conversation with the crazy Spiro. He believes that the recent 14% increase in MNKD's share price from $5 has been precipitated by a small wave of short covering into tax loss selling. The tax loss selling has kept the upward movement of MNKD share price somewhat muted. It has also become apparent that just about all of the longs have finally noticed that blinding light at the end of the tunnel and have become even more entrenched in their positions. I might exclude Biotech from this group. The street chatter from doctor's, SNY reps and patients is not going unnoticed by the shorts. As the launch approaches a new wave of buying will start to push MNKD's share price towards double digits after January 1st. The shorts are trapped and have no exit strategy. Some institutions are sitting back and waiting for short attempts to flash crash MNKD and happily buy cheap shares. Spiro here, anxiously awaiting 2015. I wonder if MNKD shorts are excited about next year? Your right Spiro, No way Im buying, Also not selling. I have my limit tied up in speculation stocks already! |
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 27, 2014 0:23:07 GMT -5
The crazy Spiro strongly advises Babaoriley to listen to Dr. Jay Skyler talk about Afrezza before FDA approval. I listened .... again. Good stuff, didn't scare the shorts away, though. And I see only 1,000,000 less shorts shares as of December 15, was hoping for about 3 million fewer. Oh well... By the way, Spiro, Skyler's from UM - 'nuff said! |
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Post by spiro on Dec 27, 2014 10:02:57 GMT -5
Babaoriley, Spiro is only trying to get you and a few others to look at the BIG PICTURE. The shorts don't have to worry about Dr. Skyler in particular, it's the other 900,000 U.S. doctors and specialists, along with the 20 million or so U.S. diabetes who would benefit from Afrezza that the shorts should be terrified of. If only 33% of the roughly 425,000 primary care physicians tried to make their life a little easier by trying out Afrezza with only ONE of their probably hundreds of patients who would benefit from AFrreza, MNKD would not have the current capacity to treat them. Now, trying to figure out when the market crushes the shorts is the problem. I would be uncomfortable placing my bet on short term options, but I still think MNKD will continue this new rally well into next year. kff.org/other/state-indicator/total-active-physicians/ |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2014 10:33:38 GMT -5
Babaoriley, Spiro is only trying to get you and a few others to look at the BIG PICTURE. The shorts don't have to worry about Dr. Skyler in particular, it's the other 900,000 U.S. doctors and specialists, along with the 20 million or so U.S. diabetes who would benefit from Afrezza that the shorts should be terrified of. If only 33% of the roughly 425,000 primary care physicians tried to make their life a little easier by trying out Afrezza with only ONE of their probably hundreds of patients who would benefit from AFrreza, MNKD would not have the current capacity to treat them. Now, trying to figure out when the market crushes the shorts is the problem. I would be uncomfortable placing my bet on short term options, but I still think MNKD will continue this new rally well into next year. kff.org/other/state-indicator/total-active-physicians/can the 425,000 primary care physicians prescribe insulin? or do they refer the patients to Endocrinologists for the initial consultation and insulin prescription? From the same link you provided, there are about 6546 Endocrinologists... I also found this from Google search... In 2010, according to the American Board of Internal Medicine, there were 5,811 board-certified endocrinologists in the U.S.
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Post by jpg on Dec 27, 2014 11:27:07 GMT -5
Babaoriley, Spiro is only trying to get you and a few others to look at the BIG PICTURE. The shorts don't have to worry about Dr. Skyler in particular, it's the other 900,000 U.S. doctors and specialists, along with the 20 million or so U.S. diabetes who would benefit from Afrezza that the shorts should be terrified of. If only 33% of the roughly 425,000 primary care physicians tried to make their life a little easier by trying out Afrezza with only ONE of their probably hundreds of patients who would benefit from AFrreza, MNKD would not have the current capacity to treat them. Now, trying to figure out when the market crushes the shorts is the problem. I would be uncomfortable placing my bet on short term options, but I still think MNKD will continue this new rally well into next year. kff.org/other/state-indicator/total-active-physicians/can the 425,000 primary care physicians prescribe insulin? or do they refer the patients to Endocrinologists for the initial consultation and insulin prescription? From the same link you provided, there are about 6546 Endocrinologists... I also found this from Google search... In 2010, according to the American Board of Internal Medicine, there were 5,811 board-certified endocrinologists in the U.S.
Any primary care MD (GP, family MD or Internist) can prescribe insulin. Many don't because it is complicated and hard to adequetally do. Afrezza could potentially change that and this worries a few endos. Insulin (especially prandials) would be used much more frequently if it wasn't so complicated for primary care MDs. Again something which Afrezza will facilitate. JPG |
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