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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2015 11:49:53 GMT -5
I can't vouch for their accuracy, but the guy has like 5000 followers on Twitter so I figured Id share. Still working my end for some possible help on this monthly or weekly:
insulin NRx for wk of 1/30 - humulin 7,348.. - .novolin 4,880.. - .Afrezza 14
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Post by liane on Feb 6, 2015 12:04:25 GMT -5
But as one tweeter noted, that is pre-launch data
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Post by mnkdd on Feb 6, 2015 12:21:02 GMT -5
That guy is a long time basher... from pre-Phase 3 days. It's always a pleasure to see his BS failure predictions proven wrong again and again, lol.
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Post by dg1111 on Feb 6, 2015 13:13:10 GMT -5
That can't be right. You could probably find more than 14 people who claimed to purchase Afrezza last week on the various message boards. That said, I wouldn't base much off of how many people bought something that almost nobody knew was available.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 6, 2015 13:20:57 GMT -5
There may also be a lag time to the reporting data... And i agree in pre-launch I cannot see any responsible doctor prescribing until after they have had a meet with Sanofi rep and then done their own further DD plus spoke directly w the "right type" of patient for this as it will not be right for all... I will also tell you that my friend the Diabetes care doc sent me another note recently to say he can't wait to try it on one of his T2 patients but again he is waiting for the right one. I believe in the science and always have but as a potentially huge paradigm shift in diabetes care I also believe as I have stated many time the numbers (scripts, sales, revenue) will come slowly. And this is one reason I think the terms of the pending Technisphere deal announcement will have real weight/wait to the share price one way or the other. My hope is that whether it is one deal or a "Technispher Trifecta" that the terms will be seen as revenue positive for Mannkind, making them seem less like a one trick pony, and thereby take the pressure off Afrezza sales numbers and give revenue numbers time to grow.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Feb 6, 2015 14:06:18 GMT -5
There may also be a lag time to the reporting data... And i agree in pre-launch I cannot see any responsible doctor prescribing until after they have had a meet with Sanofi rep and then done their own further DD plus spoke directly w the "right type" of patient for this as it will not be right for all... I will also tell yo that my friend the Diabetes care doc sent me another note recently to say he can't wait to try it on one of his T2 patients but again he is waiting for the right one. I believe in the science and always have but as a potentially huge paradigm shift in diabetes care I also believe as I have stated many time the numbers (scripts, sales, revenue) will come slowly. And this is one reason I think the terms of the pending Technisphere deal announcement will have real wait to the share price one way or the other. My hope is that whether it is one deal or a "Technispher Trifecta" that the terms will be seen as revenue positive for Mannkind, making them seem less like a one trick pony, and thereby take the pressure off Afrezza sales numbers and give revenue numbers time to grow. I think you argument has hit on the head exactly what shorts counterargument probably is. That the company is a one trick pony and that it will still take years and years before we can decide if Afrezza will be a success. I have been a little baffled by the lack of FUD articles during the current rise of the pps, but I do not believe any of us thinks shorts are ready to give up yet. Recent months have seen several attacks fail miserably, so it is likely shorts are reassessing their strategy, regrouping and gathering strength for their next concerted attack. Next ER might present them with the right stage, or they might actually wait until first script reports come out. The only certainty is that it is coming.
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Post by spiro on Feb 6, 2015 14:34:47 GMT -5
EveningOfTheDay,
It is starting to appear that the shorts have been hesitant to attempt a major flash crash, because they know that quite a few institutional buyers are sitting back waiting to acquires large amounts of shares without driving the price up. It's still logical to assume that Vanguard, Blackrock, Fidelity, Greywolf, State Street and now the French Capital Fund Management among others, will not be intimidated by the games the shorts will play. The shorts are targeting some spineless retail investors who may believe their fear tactics and sell out or continue to get wiped out by their stop loss strategies.
Spiro
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 7, 2015 16:53:44 GMT -5
Hopefully someone has access to historical data. The really interesting comparison will be the weekly numbers for Afrezza compared to the weekly numbers when Novolog and Exubera were first launched.
There will be nothing better to dispel the "Afrezza is another Exubera" myth than launch scrip counts leaving Exubera in the dust.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 7, 2015 18:48:16 GMT -5
Hopefully someone has access to historical data. The really interesting comparison will be the weekly numbers for Afrezza compared to the weekly numbers when Novolog and Exubera were first launched. There will be nothing better to dispel the "Afrezza is another Exubera" myth than launch scrip counts leaving Exubera in the dust. dbc, I think (well hope at least) we will blow the Exhubera numbers away in the first 3 months ... After all 12m in sales after 9 months? However, I personally would not be to quick to expect Afrezza's initial script nor revenue numbers to compare favorably to Humalog and Novolog as both imho were more like "brand extensions," if you will, of already well known products and acceptable therapies. I think Afrezza will be a blockbuster but may take time as it really is a paradigm shift. I say a Paradigm shift, because of the following: 1.) I personally believe at some point, it will become as Al has often said and some articles are now mentioning the first script for a T2 for diabetes treatment and likely jump over if you will Metforman and other GLP-1's. And possibly replace basal insulin as the first insulin therapy T2's are introduced too. 2.) I think (imho and I am not a doctor nor a scientist) there is some credence to the theory that the early introduction of insulin can help save the beta insulin producing cells of the pancreas and thereby limit the duration and/or levels of outside insulin use required for continued maintenance, thereby reinforcing the argument for #1 above. 3.) if the above theories start to prove out, then the last part of my belief and hope is that Endos and GP's will realize as some are starting to hint at, that Afrezza may eliminate the need for use of Basal with Prandial in many patients and/or those that remain on both Basal and Prandial can increase the dosing of Basal to lower FG to near normal levels and thus greatly slow or even stop the progression of the disease which may also occur as suggested by some. (Afrezzauser has already shown with his iniital charts what a CGM and Afrezza can do for T1's. He is claiming to be living a normal life no matter how many carbs he eats. This will of course take a few years of proper study by Sanofi to confirm but as early anecdotal evidence of Afrezza's potential it is very encouraging) Now I don't mean to state any of the above as fact nor am I suggesting it will happen tomorrow. I am talking about a glacial pace for the paradigm shift it will take to change the current conventional thinking, perhaps 5 years... however, this is where the promise of Afrezza lies for me. If I am wrong I think it will still do relatively well over time. These are my long term beliefs about the promise of what is Afrezza and why Al Man spent 14 years and 1.2B of his personal fortune to get us where we are today... The above has nothing to do with what I personally expect the short term or mid term performance of the stock to be as i do expect the numbers to grow slowly, if not methodically, in line with the growth of the introduction of a product that has the potential to "change the game as it is currently played." And diabetics will be rightly justified to take a vey careful and well thought out approach to deciding if it is right for them.
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Post by bradleysbest on Feb 7, 2015 19:45:23 GMT -5
I believe we are still in "pre-launch" even though SNY stated they have launched Afrezza. Launch , to me, will be when the DTC advertising starts. Then it will be game on! Can't wait!
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Post by od on Feb 7, 2015 21:09:28 GMT -5
Hopefully someone has access to historical data. The really interesting comparison will be the weekly numbers for Afrezza compared to the weekly numbers when Novolog and Exubera were first launched. There will be nothing better to dispel the "Afrezza is another Exubera" myth than launch scrip counts leaving Exubera in the dust. dbc, I think (well hope at least) we will blow the Exhubera numbers away in the first 3 months ... After all 12m in sales after 9 months? However, I personally would not be to quick to expect Afrezza's initial script nor revenue numbers to compare favorably to Humalog and Novolog as both imho were more like "brand extensions," if you will, of already well known products and acceptable therapies. I think Afrezza will be a blockbuster but may take time as it really is a paradigm shift. I say a Paradigm shift, because of the following: 1.) I personally believe at some point, it will become as Al has often said and some articles are now mentioning the first script for a T2 for diabetes treatment and likely jump over if you will Metforman and other GLP-1's. And possibly replace basal insulin as the first insulin therapy T2's are introduced too. 2.) I think (imho and I am not a doctor nor a scientist) there is some credence to the theory that the early introduction of insulin can help save the beta insulin producing cells of the pancreas and thereby limit the duration and/or levels of outside insulin use required for continued maintenance, thereby reinforcing the argument for #1 above. 3.) if the above theories start to prove out, then the last part of my belief and hope is that Endos and GP's will realize as some are starting to hint at, that Afrezza may eliminate the need for use of Basal with Prandial in many patients and/or those that remain on both Basal and Prandial can increase the dosing of Basal to lower FG to near normal levels and thus greatly slow or even stop the progression of the disease which may also occur as suggested by some. (Afrezzauser has already shown with his iniital charts what a CGM and Afrezza can do for T1's. He is claiming to be living a normal life no matter how many carbs he eats. This will of course take a few years of proper study by Sanofi to confirm but as early anecdotal evidence of Afrezza's potential it is very encouraging) Now I don't mean to state any of the above as fact nor am I suggesting it will happen tomorrow. I am talking about a glacial pace for the paradigm shift it will take to change the current conventional thinking, perhaps 5 years... however, this is where the promise of Afrezza lies for me. If I am wrong I think it will still do relatively well over time. These are my long term beliefs about the promise of what is Afrezza and why Al Man spent 14 years and 1.2B of his personal fortune to get us where we are today... The above has nothing to do with what I personally expect the short term or mid term performance of the stock to be as i do expect the numbers to grow slowly, if not methodically, in line with the growth of the introduction of a product that has the potential to "change the game as it is currently played." And diabetics will be rightly justified to take a vey careful and well thought out approach to deciding if it is right for them. So nice that someone with reasonable initial expectations is not bashed for being a naysayer. (I understand mannmade has earned the respect.) True to my commitment to only comment with fact, another current rate-determining factor is the pre-authorization requirement of most payors. Yes, there are more than enough current insulin patients who qualify, but bringing on new patients will require injection trial first, or providers who are willing to play tough with the payors. As Afrezza proves to be a better first-line and the pharmacoencomics are clear, the pre-auth requirements will evaporate, and the tier will be lowered.
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Post by gomnkd on Feb 7, 2015 21:12:19 GMT -5
Once bitten twice shy. this pretty much sums up analyst/market behavior. it is not surprising either.
If you read some old Exubera articles, you'll notice that inhaled insulin was touted as replacing existing therapies. the sales projections were in billions. Once it showed Ishtar/John Carter like numbers, it was a loss of face not only for Pfizer but also for analysts and others.
being wrong once results in loss of reputation, wrong twice, loss of a job.
To quote Keynes "Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally."
This is why many analysts think Afrezza will not be a blockbuster.
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Post by mannmade on Feb 7, 2015 21:41:06 GMT -5
gomnkd, I understand and respect what you are saying above, however I am a Long investor and am so because i also think we have the benefit of hindsight on our side (as I believe someone else already pointed out) not to mention a much better science behind us... And so it leads me to believe that many of the analysts simply don't understand the science well enough and that is what makes Afrezza truly different. And if they do understand the science then they have a different agenda or perhaps as you say are still not able to see past yesterday's news...
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Feb 7, 2015 21:43:06 GMT -5
I believe most investors, although pumped up right now, realize that this will take a few quarters. No one thinks on March 1st they will announce that Danbury cannot keep up with demand. I don't personally believe pre-authorizations are going to be an issue- 2 years from now no one will even connect the two. I'm not convinced it's that much of a major issue now.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 7, 2015 23:25:27 GMT -5
mannmade... I agree that Novolog isn't apples to apples, but I think you might be underestimating the effect of ease of prescribing Afrezza for primary care physicians and the pent up demand from patients overdue for prandial. You may be right, but I would really like to see the numbers regardless. If the numbers look less than great as you suggest, I'd sooner know it upfront rather than wait for a FUD hit piece pointing it out.
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