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Post by od on Feb 6, 2015 21:10:20 GMT -5
Before I attract the wrong attention, as I have shared recently I made a bad call and am disgusted that I did not pull the buy trigger two weeks ago; probably less then 6 is history. I am making this comment to remind my friends what moves the market over time - real earnings and potential earnings. Today's Blackrock filing is great. However, it was no secret that they had a signficant stake in MNKD. Further, if I recall, there was a lot of postive 'noise' when they made their DNDN beneficial ownership filing. I am not comparing DNDN to MNKD. There are many resons well beyond the filing that MNKD is a winner. I look forward to a NRx/TRx chart that goes up. "Before you attract the wrong attention", then you essentially draw a corellary between DNDN and MNKD. It's no secret they had 10mil shares, but it's a whole other matter that they dropped another $55 mil into the company. Fugacity, the wrong attention I was referring to was not wanting to be accused of not looking forward to a significant lift next week. Afrezza is a sea change in chronic disease management. You really want to get excited, speak with clinical opinion leaders in therapeutic areas outside of diabetes. There are few diseases that all professionals fear more than diabetes.
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Post by alcc on Feb 6, 2015 21:44:24 GMT -5
Agree re taking up the float. To big guys like BR and FMR a $100M position is nothing, probably minimum to be worth their time to follow. Otoh, there is a flip side: watch out if/when they decide to unload. And these guys tend to unload together (e.g. bad earnings).
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Post by notamnkdmillionaire on Feb 6, 2015 21:46:53 GMT -5
Before I attract the wrong attention, as I have shared recently I made a bad call and am disgusted that I did not pull the buy trigger two weeks ago; probably less then 6 is history. I am making this comment to remind my friends what moves the market over time - real earnings and potential earnings. Today's Blackrock filing is great. However, it was no secret that they had a signficant stake in MNKD. Further, if I recall, there was a lot of postive 'noise' when they made their DNDN beneficial ownership filing. I am not comparing DNDN to MNKD. There are many resons well beyond the filing that MNKD is a winner. I look forward to a NRx/TRx chart that goes up. First let me state that no one knows how the market (doctors and diabetics) will respond to Afrezza. We can all agree that it is too early to tell as Afrezza just officially launched and there is still a lot of education that needs to be done. That's the story for all new drugs that are launched. But let's focus on what we know. 1. DNDN and MNKD both developed ground breaking technology to treat their respected disease. 2. Prostate cancer is a very small market vs a very large diabetes market. More of a chance that Afrezza creates word of mouth between diabetics. I don't know if there are as many boards geared toward men and their prostate to where they talk about it and share stories. 3. MNKDs Afrezza is affordable vs the cost of Provenge which wasn't a cure all. 4. Afrezza isn't designed to cure diabetes as was Provenge which was to eliminate cancer (which we know wasn't as effective as DNDN had hoped it would be but effective enough to get FDA approval). 5.MNKD opted to partner. DNDN did not. MNKD's partner came in after FDA approval and Sanofi is pretty much the partner you want to have if you want to get your drug out there into the hands (and lungs) of diabetics. Sanofi's stamp of approval is about as good as it gets. 6. Investing is a calculated crap shoot. Blackrock's investment in DNDN is looking back in history. Their investment in MNKD is happening now as the drug is being introduced. Is it fair to compare one past investment to one being employed now that is totally different with MNKD? I'd say no even though you state you aren't comparing the two but you still are comparing in regards to Blackrock's investment. 7. I'd argue that Afrezza's track record is more robust than Provenge. 8. Mannkind's technology (technosphere) has a whole lot more going for it than Dendreon's technology. 9. Al Mann has a history of success after success. DNDN has no Al Mann. 10. There has been absolutely no positive noise for Afrezza as Provenge had. Not yet at least but I hope it will come sometime later this year if not by mid 2015. Whether or not today's news will create some positive noise remains to be seen ( I am not counting on it) but there's still an Exubera cloud hanging over Afrezza and MNKD. 11. More insurance companies are covering Afrezza than Provenge when it launched. 12. Afrezza has Sam aka Afrezzauser who looks to do all he can to help others. Who was Provengeuser? There wasn't one to tell everyone about his prostate. Conclusion. DNDN is a unique story just as Exubera was. Mannkind had the failings of Exubera to learn from. Dendreon had no one else's mistakes to learn from.
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Post by savzak on Feb 6, 2015 22:28:19 GMT -5
Agree re taking up the float. To big guys like BR and FMR a $100M position is nothing, probably minimum to be worth their time to follow. Otoh, there is a flip side: watch out if/when they decide to unload. And these guys tend to unload together (e.g. bad earnings). Regarding the flip side, I suppose you can always find and then worry about the worst case scenario (I won trip to Hawaii but what if my plane crashes). I'd rather focus on the more proximate effects. The BLACKROCK position is a good thing.
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Post by alcc on Feb 6, 2015 23:07:18 GMT -5
Agree re taking up the float. To big guys like BR and FMR a $100M position is nothing, probably minimum to be worth their time to follow. Otoh, there is a flip side: watch out if/when they decide to unload. And these guys tend to unload together (e.g. bad earnings). Regarding the flip side, I suppose you can always find and then worry about the worst case scenario (I won trip to Hawaii but what if my plane crashes). I'd rather focus on the more proximate effects. The BLACKROCK position is a good thing. I agree. Just saying I have also seen and lived through that flip side. These guys won't hold through any bad news.
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Post by seanismorris on Feb 7, 2015 0:52:30 GMT -5
Blackrock is not our friend, but as long as Al is around they don't have enough leverage to be our enemy.
If I was someone like Blackrock with deep pockets (I.e. an "Activist Investor") I'd buy up stock on the cheep, and if the majority owner passed away before MNKD's potential was realized, I'd pressure the board into taking the company private. FYI I don't think a sale of the company could be realized at fare value for a while. Then, I'd develop several more Technosphere opportunities, take the company public again (to gage value) and look for a buyout.
Blackrock made a very good investment and can win multiple ways...
But, for MNKD 'Longs' ...LONG LIVE Al Mann!
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Post by jpg on Feb 7, 2015 1:32:02 GMT -5
I don't understand... Blackrock buys up the shorts bear raid dips knowing fully well this is a one way bet (does anyone think they expect to be able to sell. 20 million shares quickly if they ever want to bail without getting a massive haircut?) and now we are talking of Dendreon??? So any 'glass half full' type of person will always be able to find a dud in the portfolio of any buyer. Some didn't buy before because they were certain MNKD was going down soon but while also saying market timing doesn't matter. At the same time saying Amgen was a bad buy 25 years ago or so (after its early peak i would presume) because it went down a bit after the first rise (as of today iit is up over 14000%)... Now you think they will do like Dendreon because what??? Buffet once bought a stock that went badly. So don't look at what he does?
Thee aren't that many 5% stakes to pick up. The math is rather simple. There are 20 5% position. Now when you look at the float you come up with significantly fewer possible 5% positions. I suspect the only was they were able to get a 5% position is courtesy of the shorts. Strategically buying the dip can eventually be devastatingly effective to the shorts if you have deeper pockets and a bit of good news starts filtering out. Do we think good news is coming? Does Blackrock have deeper poskets then who ever is taking the short side of this trade? The decks are finally getting stacked in our favor.
Pundits who don't even buy shares of an extraordinary company and aren't able to see it's potential are throwing stuff around hoping something sticks. More and more it doesn't sound right. Either totally naive and amateurish or planned to scare and confuse.
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Post by gomnkd on Feb 7, 2015 2:59:25 GMT -5
Blackrock is not our friend, but as long as Al is around they don't have enough leverage to be our enemy. If I was someone like Blackrock with deep pockets (I.e. an "Activist Investor") I'd buy up stock on the cheep, and if the majority owner passed away before MNKD's potential was realized, I'd pressure the board into taking the company private. FYI I don't think a sale of the company could be realized at fare value for a while. Then, I'd develop several more Technosphere opportunities, take the company public again (to gage value) and look for a buyout. Blackrock made a very good investment and can win multiple ways... But, for MNKD 'Longs' ...LONG LIVE Al Mann! 1. Blackrock is not an activist fund. they don't have friends or enemies. they are one of largest ETF owners. 2. They filed 13G which is for passive stake 3. Mannkind can't go on sale without Al Mann's blessing. he ain't selling without realizing value 4. Blackrock doesn't have deep pockets, heck they may not have a plain pocket. all their money is institutional and individual investors money. they invest based on some criteria. They don't own or invest in private biotech firms.
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Post by ripano on Feb 7, 2015 7:58:22 GMT -5
I am incredibly happy that Blackrock now owns 5.1% of MNKD.
They could be one of the "shorts" who have been keeping down the share price for accumulation into their hedge fund.
We may now see options contracts to start selling in huge numbers in anticipation of their short covering.
Other hedge funds may see this as a time to start buying shares also. By Blackrock buying so many shares as to having to file a 13G is EPIC.
I think in my opinion this will generate a slow gradual price increase and very large options contracts sales both happening well before the
MNKD board meeting.
Finally we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.
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Post by od on Feb 7, 2015 9:44:54 GMT -5
I don't understand... Blackrock buys up the shorts bear raid dips knowing fully well this is a one way bet (does anyone think they expect to be able to sell. 20 million shares quickly if they ever want to bail without getting a massive haircut?) and now we are talking of Dendreon??? So any 'glass half full' type of person will always be able to find a dud in the portfolio of any buyer. Some didn't buy before because they were certain MNKD was going down soon but while also saying market timing doesn't matter. At the same time saying Amgen was a bad buy 25 years ago or so (after its early peak i would presume) because it went down a bit after the first rise (as of today iit is up over 14000%)... Now you think they will do like Dendreon because what??? Buffet once bought a stock that went badly. So don't look at what he does? Thee aren't that many 5% stakes to pick up. The math is rather simple. There are 20 5% position. Now when you look at the float you come up with significantly fewer possible 5% positions. I suspect the only was they were able to get a 5% position is courtesy of the shorts. Strategically buying the dip can eventually be devastatingly effective to the shorts if you have deeper pockets and a bit of good news starts filtering out. Do we think good news is coming? Does Blackrock have deeper poskets then who ever is taking the short side of this trade? The decks are finally getting stacked in our favor. Pundits who don't even buy shares of an extraordinary company and aren't able to see it's potential are throwing stuff around hoping something sticks. More and more it doesn't sound right. Either totally naive and amateurish or planned to scare and confuse. jpg, you have questioned my veracity from the get-go. If I was a poser I could have claimed a long postion and taken that vulnerability off the table. It is clear I was off base using DNDN as an example that Blackrock, like every institution and every individual investor, can make bad choices. It had nothing to do with Provenge (though mnkdmillionaries response was worth whatever button I unintentionally pushed - it is great). Here is my gift to you/others - I am off the board until I have a position and/or I have unassailable facts to share. Fair enough?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2015 10:19:15 GMT -5
Cya
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 7, 2015 11:09:38 GMT -5
I don't expect the Blackrock announcement will do much more than heighten awareness. The news might attract more fund managers to take a look at MannKind.
Now, if it had been Sanofi that had announced an equity interest Friday after hours, that would be a different story altogether for MNKD pps on Monday. Incidentally, I haven't ruled out that possibility.
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Post by spiro on Feb 7, 2015 11:33:22 GMT -5
The Sanofi announcement will probably take a couple of months, but the share price will not wait for that news to move sharply higher. i agree that the Blackrock announcement will heighten awareness, but it also provides increasing credibility to MNKD the company and most importantly strengthens investor confidence in their holdings. IMO, weak MNKD shareholders are in extreme low supply now.
Would you believe that Spiro's wife said this morning that maybe we should buy more MNKD shares. Spiro told her, honey we have enough. If she knew how many shares we own, she would immediately stop shopping at TJ Max and Target. Good grief, that would be like a short raid on my wallet.
Spiro here
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Post by nemzter on Feb 7, 2015 11:41:05 GMT -5
The Sanofi announcement will probably take a couple of months, but the share price will not wait for that news to move sharply higher. i agree that the Blackrock announcement will heighten awareness, but it also provides increasing credibility to MNKD the company and most importantly strengthens investor confidence in their holdings. IMO, weak MNKD shareholders are in extreme low supply now. Would you believe that Spiro's wife said this morning that maybe we should buy more MNKD shares. Spiro told her, honey we have enough. If she knew how many shares we own, she would immediately stop shopping at TJ Max and Target. Good grief, that would be like a short raid on my wallet. Spiro here Same here Spiro, if my wife knew, well ... just save a spot for me in Siberia.
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Post by daduke38 on Feb 7, 2015 13:57:30 GMT -5
The Sanofi announcement will probably take a couple of months, but the share price will not wait for that news to move sharply higher. i agree that the Blackrock announcement will heighten awareness, but it also provides increasing credibility to MNKD the company and most importantly strengthens investor confidence in their holdings. IMO, weak MNKD shareholders are in extreme low supply now. Would you believe that Spiro's wife said this morning that maybe we should buy more MNKD shares. Spiro told her, honey we have enough. If she knew how many shares we own, she would immediately stop shopping at TJ Max and Target. Good grief, that would be like a short raid on my wallet. Spiro here Same here Spiro, if my wife knew, well ... just save a spot for me in Siberia. Glad to know I am not the only one over extending my wife's comfort zone with out her knowing it! I'll tell her when we hit $30.00!
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