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Post by alethea on Feb 24, 2016 17:26:39 GMT -5
Wow. Thanks for the info. Is this the highest short interest ever seen with MNKD? Almost but not quite. The NASDAQ site shows over 131 million shares short last May 29, 2015. I think it is the second highest level ever. OOPS. Missed the previous reply already answering the question. Sorry about that. |
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Post by coo2002coo on Feb 25, 2016 10:06:43 GMT -5
Short Interest as of Feb 12 up to 130,253,946. An INCREASE of more than 5,800,000!!!!! Days to cover are 30.66 BUT that is assuming that the GENUINE Daily Volume is 4.2 million shares which is an absolute joke. Far fewer than one million shares are really traded by folks other than the participating manipulative Wall Street crooks. This is getting more and more interesting here. Those who sell shorts or buy put in the past one month are really betting the worst scenario to occur, i.e. BK, Dilution or RS. Any positive news of collaborations or co-promoting Afrezza outside US markets with up front payment(s) to MNKD will definitely present less chance of BK (Dilution & RS). And subsequent to these news would then be the likelihood of greater script numbers to come and possible short squeeze afterwards. |
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Post by longinvstr on Feb 25, 2016 17:23:34 GMT -5
Short Interest as of Feb 12 up to 130,253,946. An INCREASE of more than 5,800,000!!!!! Days to cover are 30.66 BUT that is assuming that the GENUINE Daily Volume is 4.2 million shares which is an absolute joke. Far fewer than one million shares are really traded by folks other than the participating manipulative Wall Street crooks. This is getting more and more interesting here. Those who sell shorts or buy put in the past one month are really betting the worst scenario to occur, i.e. BK, Dilution or RS. Any positive news of collaborations or co-promoting Afrezza outside US markets with up front payment(s) to MNKD will definitely present less chance of BK (Dilution & RS). And subsequent to these news would then be the likelihood of greater script numbers to come and possible short squeeze afterwards. Given our cash situation and the need to be in extreme giddy-up mode, the week of April 4th should be very, very interesting. It should be even more interesting for those who remain short = pigs get ... to be tardy April Fools. There is good news a-comin', I can feels it in me bones. No way this story ends with a BK whimper; it just doesn't. We live with a cascade of announcements I am intrigued by Matt's comment regarding the two interested parties that were spurned by the SNY partnership and who called immediately after SNY termination announcement. You can bet their teams are in full launch planning/strategy mode with reports & updates being reviewed at weekly meetings. They've had a year to smart over the one that got away and, now, three full months to plan for their second chance. Things could move very quickly in 2nd Q |
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Post by bioexec25 on Feb 25, 2016 18:02:17 GMT -5
Longinvstr - Just to strengthen your point, seems many of the Bigs have always just played the odds on finances and market forces as it has served them well with biotech in the past, not to mention they contribute to "helping" their predictions come true as we well know. Whilst the odds are still in their favor, I also believe this case to be different in that historically, disruptive tech or more simply put, threatening tech simply takes longer to take hold unless they are immediately readily available or gain support from very deep pockets. We struggled with both in 2015. Insurance held Afrezza back AND the deep pockets actually turned out to foe and not a friend. This survives the near-term 2016 financial woes and look out once the finances, pricing/insurance are set back to a reasonable upward course based on real-world results.
Yes I share affirm your statement, "No way this story ends with a BK whimper; it just doesn't".
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2016 15:14:50 GMT -5
its about that time again . Numbers out tommorrow 03/09 with a settlement date of 02/29
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Post by Deleted on Mar 9, 2016 16:10:04 GMT -5
down from 130 mil to 117 mil
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 10, 2016 8:16:21 GMT -5
down from 130 mil to 117 mil I wonder if anyone would consider a 10% drop in short interest over two weeks to be insignificant.  
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Settlement Date / Short Interest / Avg Daily Share Volume / Days To Cover
2/29/2016 / 117,258,191 / 4,741,648 / 24.729417
2/12/2016 / 130,253,946 / 4,247,553 / 30.665643
Read more: www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/short-interest#ixzz42VP3ZjvG
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Post by cretin11 on Mar 10, 2016 8:42:42 GMT -5
It does seem significant, but wouldn't we expect the share price to have risen more than it did during that time frame? It went up a few cents I think. Then after that it had a nice bump, so I'm wondering if more covering occurred. I'm still not clear on what exactly the correlation is between short covering and share price.
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Post by mnholdem on Mar 10, 2016 9:41:01 GMT -5
It does seem significant, but wouldn't we expect the share price to have risen more than it did during that time frame? It went up a few cents I think. Then after that it had a nice bump, so I'm wondering if more covering occurred. I'm still not clear on what exactly the correlation is between short covering and share price. I think if you consider that the reporting period of the latest NASDAQ short interest report was the period Feb 13-29, you'll notice about a 30% rise in share price during that period. Then, few days after the 29th, pps dropped to $1.00 only to jump to $1.32 within a few more days - another 30% jump.
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Post by bioexec25 on Mar 10, 2016 9:49:06 GMT -5
Hi Mnholdem, if 10% short reduction for 30% gain, then 90% more is roughly 270% realizing I'm sure it's not linear nor that simple with all the shenanigans going on with this stock. Even so, that's not the squeeze I think many were hoping for. Maybe I'm looking at this incorrectly.
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Post by mnkdnewb on Mar 10, 2016 12:30:34 GMT -5
It does seem significant, but wouldn't we expect the share price to have risen more than it did during that time frame? It went up a few cents I think. Then after that it had a nice bump, so I'm wondering if more covering occurred. I'm still not clear on what exactly the correlation is between short covering and share price. I think if you consider that the reporting period of the latest NASDAQ short interest report was the period Feb 13-29, you'll notice about a 30% rise in share price during that period. Then, few days after the 29th, pps dropped to $1.00 only to jump to $1.32 within a few more days - another 30% jump.
THANK YOU! I said the same thing on ymb yesterday. People expected some 300%+ gain in a day when shorts start to cover and that is not how this is going to go unless we get some incredible news within the next 3 months. 30% gain every 10 trading days is fine by me! Now, something else I am thinking about... If they continue to cover roughly 1,000,000 shares per day to keep the price from "spiking", they still need about 6 months of no news or no good news to be announced for them the get out without too much pain (and maybe some gains). Now, my thinking is we should be hearing something significantly positive in the next 3 months so that leaves about 45,000,000-55,000,000 shares that would still need to be covered (if it happens in 3 months). That may cause a bit of a squeeze, but if we don't hear good news within 3 months my thinking is this company is all but finished. |
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Post by BlueCat on Mar 10, 2016 12:39:25 GMT -5
They are taking a cautious approach. Make a boatload of money now with what they've got, with little risk. Why risk news just for $1 more profit?
They got it exactly down where they wanted it - $1 range.
I want there to be a Burning Man fire of shorts, but unfortunately, I'm doubtful I'll get to see it and benefit from it.
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Post by taylor810dn on Mar 10, 2016 12:51:21 GMT -5
10% of the current short positions being covered could not be considered a squeeze, not with the wildest imagination. A real squeeze will occur if we get some major news and the price jumps enough to put 30-40% of the short positions in the red, and this has been shorted all the way down from $11, so the news will have to be really good. And another aspect which doesn't seem to be considered in these discussions is that there is a huge number of shares that are being "naked shorted", I think that is part of the reason there can be a decent amount of covering without spiking the pps. I monitor streaming quotes and MNKD trading does not resemble any other stock, it doesn't take much time observing the real time trades to see that MNKD trading is being scripted much of the time. I can't count the days that MNKD volume has crawled along for 6 hours and 20 minutes, and then it trades a million or two million shares in the last 10 minutes, 99% of the volume not even causing a penny in the stock movement, then in the last second of the trading day, one order drops it 3-4% and it closes at the low of the day. It has done that 4 times in the last 21 trading days, I compared it to another biotech I trade/monitor (SRPT) and it has not closed at the low of the day in the last 100 trading days. If MNKD trading is really being investigated as Matt indicated some time ago, the folks doing the dirty work know enough about it that they don't feel threatened yet with getting caught.
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 10, 2016 13:37:50 GMT -5
taylor, is this why Nate says the short squeeze won't start until 12 pps?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 10, 2016 14:51:34 GMT -5
10% of the current short positions being covered could not be considered a squeeze, not with the wildest imagination. A real squeeze will occur if we get some major news and the price jumps enough to put 30-40% of the short positions in the red, and this has been shorted all the way down from $11, so the news will have to be really good. And another aspect which doesn't seem to be considered in these discussions is that there is a huge number of shares that are being "naked shorted", I think that is part of the reason there can be a decent amount of covering without spiking the pps. I monitor streaming quotes and MNKD trading does not resemble any other stock, it doesn't take much time observing the real time trades to see that MNKD trading is being scripted much of the time. I can't count the days that MNKD volume has crawled along for 6 hours and 20 minutes, and then it trades a million or two million shares in the last 10 minutes, 99% of the volume not even causing a penny in the stock movement, then in the last second of the trading day, one order drops it 3-4% and it closes at the low of the day. It has done that 4 times in the last 21 trading days, I compared it to another biotech I trade/monitor (SRPT) and it has not closed at the low of the day in the last 100 trading days. If MNKD trading is really being investigated as Matt indicated some time ago, the folks doing the dirty work know enough about it that they don't feel threatened yet with getting caught. Naked shorting would only help prevent a squeeze as long as some other short is offering the shares (and delaying borrowing) to the ones wishing to cover... so that really isn't net covering. A squeeze is only likely if few if any shorts remain on that side of the trade. |
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