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Post by harshal1981 on Feb 12, 2015 16:16:49 GMT -5
I saw that today someone purchased 9000 put contracts at $7 strike today and it expires tomorrow. Twitter is a buzz on this trade and opinion is that it is in the anticipation of afrezza script data to be released tomorrow. what does it really mean? Any analysis / opinion is welcome.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2015 16:33:26 GMT -5
They were bought, not sold from the looks of it. They were also bought right when the share price was at $7 for $0.20 each. They need the SP to be under $6.80 to make any money on it. They spent about $180,000. I think people are a tad bit clueless (especially regular retail) what script numbers mean or how they will even compare to launches in the past. As someone has shared here, an average number for some other diabetic meds was around 500 scripts in week 1. With the requirement of a spirometry, its safe to say that the only ones who got a script for Afrezza in the 4 days that will be contained in the data (Im guessing but I would think that the number reported tomorrow is for Week of Jan 31 - Feb 06) and the week before "official" launch, were the diehards that were either in the trials are very invested in the success (investors with diabetes). The bottom line, IMO, is that script number will be low tomorrow, and if you asked me to put money in a pool, would guess somewhere in the 100-200 range. Its also probably safe to say that whoever put that kind of money on the line already has a good idea where the numbers are. Since share price has been on a run lately, Im betting there is a lot of new, mostly uninformed, investors that are going to be losing their lunch money tomorrow when the FUD is ran rampant all over Twitter/ST, and probably even a Fool/SA article to boot. Either way, the person placing that bet probably already has a good idea of whats going to happen tomorrow, otherwise they wouldnt be gambling $180k on a 50/50 chance. Just my $0.02. PS, there was also 50,000 $12 Jan 16 Call options opened today for $0.45. Thats a 2,250,000 bet. So at least theres that for more long term thoughts.  |
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 12, 2015 16:42:06 GMT -5
They were bought, not sold from the looks of it. They were also bought right when the share price was at $7 for $0.20 each. They need the SP to be under $6.80 to make any money on it. They spent about $180,000. I think people are a tad bit clueless (especially regular retail) what script numbers mean or how they will even compare to launches in the past. As someone has shared here, an average number for some other diabetic meds was around 500 scripts in week 1. With the requirement of a spirometry, its safe to say that the only ones who got a script for Afrezza in the 4 days that will be contained in the data (Im guessing but I would think that the number reported tomorrow is for Week of Jan 31 - Feb 06) and the week before "official" launch, were the diehards that were either in the trials are very invested in the success (investors with diabetes). The bottom line, IMO, is that script number will be low tomorrow, and if you asked me to put money in a pool, would guess somewhere in the 100-200 range. Its also probably safe to say that whoever put that kind of money on the line already has a good idea where the numbers are. Since share price has been on a run lately, Im betting there is a lot of new, mostly uninformed, investors that are going to be losing their lunch money tomorrow when the FUD is ran rampant all over Twitter/ST, and probably even a Fool/SA article to boot. Either way, the person placing that bet probably already has a good idea of whats going to happen tomorrow, otherwise they wouldnt be gambling $180k on a 50/50 chance. Just my $0.02. Thanks, fug, great stuff. I looked and from the info I am able to access, I could not be sure if it was a buy or a sell. A sell would not be a horrible strategy at all, especially if you thought the script numbers would be good or, regardless of whether good or bad, a non-event for the share price - - we all know it's pretty much a non-event fundamentally. For example, if an institution wanted to pick up 900,000 shares of MNKD, that's not a bad way to do it and get a little discount if the share price finishes up under $7 tomorrow. Very interesting, however, I, too figure it was a purchase, and what I gotta conclude is the script numbers will be low, and that there will be an article or two (pre-written, of course - just fill in the blank after the word "only" and before the word "prescriptions") hitting the wires before the market opens. If we get hammered at the opening, I would look for a quick closing of that position. If the position remains open during the whole day, then it may just have been a sale of those puts today. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 12, 2015 16:46:36 GMT -5
Thanks Baba, and I agree. Will be interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow.
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Post by alcc on Feb 12, 2015 17:24:02 GMT -5
They were bought, not sold from the looks of it. They were also bought right when the share price was at $7 for $0.20 each. They need the SP to be under $6.80 to make any money on it. They spent about $180,000. I think people are a tad bit clueless (especially regular retail) what script numbers mean or how they will even compare to launches in the past. As someone has shared here, an average number for some other diabetic meds was around 500 scripts in week 1. With the requirement of a spirometry, its safe to say that the only ones who got a script for Afrezza in the 4 days that will be contained in the data (Im guessing but I would think that the number reported tomorrow is for Week of Jan 31 - Feb 06) and the week before "official" launch, were the diehards that were either in the trials are very invested in the success (investors with diabetes). The bottom line, IMO, is that script number will be low tomorrow, and if you asked me to put money in a pool, would guess somewhere in the 100-200 range. Its also probably safe to say that whoever put that kind of money on the line already has a good idea where the numbers are. Since share price has been on a run lately, Im betting there is a lot of new, mostly uninformed, investors that are going to be losing their lunch money tomorrow when the FUD is ran rampant all over Twitter/ST, and probably even a Fool/SA article to boot. Either way, the person placing that bet probably already has a good idea of whats going to happen tomorrow, otherwise they wouldnt be gambling $180k on a 50/50 chance. Just my $0.02. Thanks, fug, great stuff. I looked and from the info I am able to access, I could not be sure if it was a buy or a sell. A sell would not be a horrible strategy at all, especially if you thought the script numbers would be good or, regardless of whether good or bad, a non-event for the share price - - we all know it's pretty much a non-event fundamentally. For example, if an institution wanted to pick up 900,000 shares of MNKD, that's not a bad way to do it and get a little discount if the share price finishes up under $7 tomorrow. Very interesting, however, I, too figure it was a purchase, and what I gotta conclude is the script numbers will be low, and that there will be an article or two (pre-written, of course - just fill in the blank after the word "only" and before the word "prescriptions") hitting the wires before the market opens. If we get hammered at the opening, I would look for a quick closing of that position. If the position remains open during the whole day, then it may just have been a sale of those puts today. It's purchased as a relatively cheap covered hedge or naked bearish call. A sell makes no sense. If the script comes out looking good and the stock takes off you pocket only 0.20. But if the script looks bad and the stock tanks you eat it at $6.80. |
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Post by goyocafe on Feb 12, 2015 17:35:08 GMT -5
They were bought, not sold from the looks of it. They were also bought right when the share price was at $7 for $0.20 each. They need the SP to be under $6.80 to make any money on it. They spent about $180,000. I think people are a tad bit clueless (especially regular retail) what script numbers mean or how they will even compare to launches in the past. As someone has shared here, an average number for some other diabetic meds was around 500 scripts in week 1. With the requirement of a spirometry, its safe to say that the only ones who got a script for Afrezza in the 4 days that will be contained in the data (Im guessing but I would think that the number reported tomorrow is for Week of Jan 31 - Feb 06) and the week before "official" launch, were the diehards that were either in the trials are very invested in the success (investors with diabetes). The bottom line, IMO, is that script number will be low tomorrow, and if you asked me to put money in a pool, would guess somewhere in the 100-200 range. Its also probably safe to say that whoever put that kind of money on the line already has a good idea where the numbers are. Since share price has been on a run lately, Im betting there is a lot of new, mostly uninformed, investors that are going to be losing their lunch money tomorrow when the FUD is ran rampant all over Twitter/ST, and probably even a Fool/SA article to boot. Either way, the person placing that bet probably already has a good idea of whats going to happen tomorrow, otherwise they wouldnt be gambling $180k on a 50/50 chance. Just my $0.02. Thanks, fug, great stuff. I looked and from the info I am able to access, I could not be sure if it was a buy or a sell. A sell would not be a horrible strategy at all, especially if you thought the script numbers would be good or, regardless of whether good or bad, a non-event for the share price - - we all know it's pretty much a non-event fundamentally. For example, if an institution wanted to pick up 900,000 shares of MNKD, that's not a bad way to do it and get a little discount if the share price finishes up under $7 tomorrow. Very interesting, however, I, too figure it was a purchase, and what I gotta conclude is the script numbers will be low, and that there will be an article or two (pre-written, of course - just fill in the blank after the word "only" and before the word "prescriptions") hitting the wires before the market opens. If we get hammered at the opening, I would look for a quick closing of that position. If the position remains open during the whole day, then it may just have been a sale of those puts today. If there was any concern/interest by Sanofi/MNKD to offset bad script numbers, AND any truth to the idea that a country is waiting to place a $200MM order for Afrezza, they would release the news of the sales contract on the same day as the release of the first week of scripts number. I'm not smoking anything at the moment, but reading that statement you'd think I was. |
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Post by jpg on Feb 12, 2015 18:25:34 GMT -5
My only interpretation of that trade is that we are not dealing with a long term investor...
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Post by protrader on Feb 12, 2015 18:46:45 GMT -5
I agree that the person who placed the trade is not a long term investor, however that person may make a killing tomorrow. Based on the fact that the Rx numbers may come in very light. A quick search around Diabetes forums shows that most of the people who should be buzzing about this treatment really aren't. And the ones who are talking it up like AfrezzaUser seem to be few and far in between. Many people are simply posting FUD without even realizing it. The truth needs to get out!
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Post by mnkdfan on Feb 12, 2015 19:43:43 GMT -5
Hi Fugacity, I checked on my TD ameritrade account and only saw 13,392 Call contracts $12.00, 2016 for .43c. Just wondering which brokerage you saw listed the 50K contracts. That would be a huge vote of confidence.
Thanks
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Post by alcc on Feb 12, 2015 20:44:56 GMT -5
My only interpretation of that trade is that we are not dealing with a long term investor... Disagree. This is a standard hedge for a large long position. I have used it before (not on MNKD) when I was worried about an upcoming event, e.g. an earnings report. The cost is a tolerable 3% for at the money insurance. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 12, 2015 22:06:37 GMT -5
alcc... that may well be the case. If I were a fund manager and worried about quarterly results, I'd probably do that.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2015 7:49:09 GMT -5
Hi Fugacity, I checked on my TD ameritrade account and only saw 13,392 Call contracts $12.00, 2016 for .43c. Just wondering which brokerage you saw listed the 50K contracts. That would be a huge vote of confidence. Thanks there were three of them, 13k, and two for 18-19k |
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 13, 2015 10:10:30 GMT -5
Don't think this was a covering transaction based on anticipated lousy script numbers (an irrelevancy at this point). Based on what has unfolded so far, that was a purchase of the put by short forces who were aware an attack was to take place right out of the gate. So far, admittedly quite well done. Please remember that the short interests are too huge to ignore, and powerful enough (despite exaggerated reports of their demise  ) to do stuff like this. There simply is no getting even reasonably comfortable here until favorable quarter over quarter sales numbers. Spiro, stay off that wall from which you fell and all others like it! We are not spring chickens, and we do not heal fast if we are injured! Cash a few MNKD shares in and hire someone if you must, don't let your remaining (or even memory of) testosterone get you in trouble!! |
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Post by kc on Feb 13, 2015 10:22:47 GMT -5
OUCH! that was a harsh comment. "don't let your remaining (or even memory of) testosterone get you in trouble!!"
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Post by babaoriley on Feb 13, 2015 10:57:20 GMT -5
Not meant harshly, just trying to get through forcefully to a stubborn Greek!
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) to do stuff like this. There simply is no getting even reasonably comfortable here until favorable quarter over quarter sales numbers. 