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Post by jpg on Feb 25, 2015 15:53:27 GMT -5
jpg... I'm not implying that doctors would give out Afrezza sample packs without writing, or intending to write, a prescription. Just that maybe doctors are giving out more than 1 sample on average per patient given that some patients may require some back and forth with insurance to get approved. Listening to the two conference calls has done nothing but strengthened my belief, so I certainly am not saying I believe there is anything demonstrably negative. I'm just not jumping up and down about the sample comment quite as frenetically as I was yesterday. Will wait for the IMS data before breaking out in full happy dance. Though after the two calls there might be some more buying if any further dips occur. I understand what you are saying but to me if they are giving out samples (even if the number is divided by 2 of the total because they are giving them to fewer patients then though if they only give one sample) it doesn't matter that much. The thing that matters to me would be that more MDs give out samples to fewer patients then fewer MDs to more patients. If that makes any sense?
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Post by pmikeks on Feb 25, 2015 16:07:45 GMT -5
I was pleasantly surprised they shared as much as they did on both more samples being needed and plans to triple their production capabilities in the 2nd quarter. They did share a little about future Technosphere opportunities, specific areas of concentration but not specifically which of the three areas they would really execute first. It was intriguing they said they believed a shorter time to get the meds approved but hopefully they weren't comparing them to the time it took to get Afrezza launched. ;)p
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2015 16:31:10 GMT -5
jpg... BTW, the context of trying to read the tea leaves is because I do still have some of my investable money that I set aside thinking that there might be a pullback with the FUDsters taking advantage of early script data being understandably low. I'm just trying to figure out if we've already seen all the pullback we're going to before the news becomes undeniably positive. I remain fully confident that 6 months from now the success of Afrezza will be evident.
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 25, 2015 16:50:49 GMT -5
When that time arrives, we expect you to post a video of your happy dance...
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Post by mannmade on Feb 25, 2015 16:59:42 GMT -5
While they said many positive things they did not give us concrete facts to hang our hat on so to speak. And for some the lack of details and or silence is tough to take.
However imho while I would have also liked more details I think the future looks very bright as I would remind those who doubt (for lack of hard facts) that mnkd w the exception of the postponement of the FDA announcement (which was out of their control) has been spot on to their word and guidance since the second crl. So I suspect the silence while hard to take may be very good in the long run for those with patience given what we do know.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2015 17:04:21 GMT -5
Think Docs are giving out samples before or after spirometry is done?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2015 17:14:22 GMT -5
Think Docs are giving out samples before or after spirometry is done? After I would think... and while in the RBC conference Mannkind said that most GPs have the spirometers, they stated that many/most endos are in hospital settings and need to send patient to some other office to get the test... implication it's not same day walk-in test.
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Post by jpg on Feb 25, 2015 18:31:58 GMT -5
jpg... BTW, the context of trying to read the tea leaves is because I do still have some of my investable money that I set aside thinking that there might be a pullback with the FUDsters taking advantage of early script data being understandably low. I'm just trying to figure out if we've already seen all the pullback we're going to before the news becomes undeniably positive. I remain fully confident that 6 months from now the success of Afrezza will be evident. If you have the skill to do that great. I have shown myself time and time again I just can't read these market tea leaves. I do think that with the massive short interest and crazy interest payments we are seeing that it will be hard (famous last words since by making this statement I am trying to read market tea leaves...) for shorts to push this down substantially? All we need is some 'not bad news' in the form of gently rising script counts to sustain us at current market cap. The upside seems better then the downside? Again I have no skill in doing any of this calling a bottom or near bottom so all I just said is kind of meaningless! The only thing I personally think I have some success in using to gauge when to buy (or sell) is the 'panic-fear-neutrality-cautious optimism-bravado-irrational optimism-this will be bigger then Novartis and Apple combined' continuum. I don't detect fear from retail but do think many retail longs (they might not matter that much anymore though?) are tired and closer to the fear-neutrality-cautious optimism then the to the other part of spectrum? I think many investors 'logically know' this will do well but are emotionally exhausted and that is good from my perspective. I personally can't buy anymore as anything I buy now would be irrational from the perspective of the price I paid for my average share (and the growing % of my net worth Mannkind now occupies) but I can certainly see why you could be thinking of buying some more. The risk/price ratio is probably the best buy I've ever seen it. I bought mostly very cheap but took crazy big risks that retrospectively only make sense because it worked!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2015 18:44:48 GMT -5
I'm cautiously-optimistic-withabitof-fearful-bravado... and exhausted... though trying to keep a sense of humor about it despite the huge (educated and calculated) risk I'm taking.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 25, 2015 19:26:11 GMT -5
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Post by robsacher on Feb 25, 2015 20:02:26 GMT -5
jpg, Thank you for your analysis. I appreciate the point of view of a doctor. I watch the p/s minute by minute and have developed a good sense for when momentum is about to shift since I have been doing this for about two and a half years. I think that MNKD may have another run in it coming very soon. There appears to have been an attempted short raid on Wed. 2/25/15 at 9:35AM but it was quashed almost immediately. Someone got their butt kicked. You can see it in the day chart. The rest of the day saw p/s rise about .35 cents (almost 5%) off the low until 1PM when profit taking kicked in. The p/s closed at 6.90, still about .25 cents above the day's low (after the attempted short raid) for almost 4% bump up from that low. This may be a signal that MannKind is about to brake out and up again. Shorts notice when one of them eat it like what happened today. Also, I have a feeling that $7 p/s is one of their last lines of defense, not the very last, but those who shorted below $7 are now in the red and are running out of ammo. They may be looking at this stock now and thinking that the price is getting rather high, especially if we start to see additional institutional buyers coming in now that the retail investors have already done much of the heavy lifting. Institutional buying is a weight against shorting even if those shares can be lent for a hefty fee to shorts. The institutions hold and that hurts a short's strategy in driving FUD through the market.I suggest that tomorrow and Friday will be an interesting end to the week. If there is continued upward momentum, we may break on through to new plateaus, possibly $8, possibly $9 within the next two weeks. If momentum is muted over the next couple of days, we may then see the p/s trade in the $6.60 to $7.20 cent range for awhile. But, I have a feeling things are going to go nicely, very nicely this week.
I guess we'll all see... Attachment Deleted
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Post by mnholdem on Feb 25, 2015 20:07:14 GMT -5
Okay...I just lost it over the happy dance images.
Ten minutes of uncontrollable laughter has elapsed, and my wife is now hovering over me asking if I need a paramedic!
ROTFL was always a figure of speech before today.
Too, too funny for words.
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