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Post by Chris on Sept 6, 2013 17:01:30 GMT -5
Do you really think $23 is possible? That marketcap would be so aggressive and optimistic, IMO. Nemster, $46 if we get a partnership? I don't believe we'll get $46 if ever, can you care too elaborate behind your rational with figures? $46 *double on buyout, not partnership My rationale is based on mostly hopes and dreams, as to many who have bought into this company believing in the technology and the capability to save millions of lives. Thanks Nem for chiming in and Swing for the correction and input. We'll wait and see! |
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Post by StevieRay on Sept 6, 2013 18:06:19 GMT -5
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Post by rtccpa on Sept 7, 2013 11:20:07 GMT -5
I don't think $23 is really that far fetched.
OOG pointed out earlier that the estimated US diabetic population is 23 million if I recall. Certainly, with Canada, Mexico & Europe thrown in, it's probably around, what, 40 million?
Assuming ONLY a 10% penetration, that gets you 4 million patients. If treatment costs $2000 (?) per patient this gives you gross sales of $8 billion annually. Often times companies get bought out @ some multiple of gross sales. Even if it gets purchased at 1 times sales, the price would be $8 billion. This is about 4 times the current market cap. 4 times the current stock price of $6 is $24. However, divide by 2, due to the additional "dilution" from stock conversions, sales, etc. so I get a stock price of $12.
So in my mind, $12 is just about the lowest price willing suitor would be willing to pay. This may be a leap of faith, but if Afrezza is as good as claimed, & I was a big pharm, I certainly would think that my sales force could easily, easily, capture at LEAST a 20% market share of the diabetic market. More likely than not, I think Afrezza would capture a 50% market share(or 5 times as much) at some point in the not too distant future. In that case, the stock price equates to $60; (5x12).
My gut instincts tell me THIS is where the negotiations are at RIGHT now. Al Mann is driving a hard bargain. He's asking for $60 a share and Big Pharm is offering $12. Big Pharm is claiming they are not paying Al for a product that doesn't have FDA approval. Al's claiming it will pass for sure, and BTW, look at the potential profits down the road. Somehow, somewhere, there is going to have to be a meeting of the minds. Not sure if I "fear" this, but I would not be surprised that if Al does not get his price, he may try to go it alone. In that case, we will still eventually be rewarded, but it will be a longer time in coming with a lot of gut wrenching, restless, sleepless nights in between.
Not sure if I can still take this at my age. And if you're young enough to still put up with this, well, this is going to age you VERY quickly.
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Post by Chris on Sept 7, 2013 22:05:35 GMT -5
Hey Rtccpa, Thanks for taking your time to write your lengthy response, Rtccpa. I did some research and the US diabetic population is not 23 million. The diabetic population in America is 25.8 million and this was in 2011 so the number has surely increased and will more than likely continually increase as trends and statistics indicate. However, only 18.8 million diabetics have been actually diagnosed and therefore will surely receive treatment and care for diabetes. Of that 18.8 million diabetics, one must consider diabetics whom may not have insurance coverage for treatment. Depending on the labeling, Afrezza may not also be available to smokers, thus further cutting the diabetic population capable of being prescribed Afrezza. But for the sake of this response I will use the 25.8 million figure and use your method of valuation using various penetration percentages. MNKD may one day see a share price of 24 dollars and maybe even 60 dollars as you state but at what point and timeline? There are many variables, hurdles and factors to consider so I'll focus on MNKD's 1st year after assumed FDA approval and commercialization in my quick write-up below: 1st year (Assuming US Only) Diabetic Population x Market Penetration Percentage (MPP) x Estimated Cost of Afrezza Treatment = Gross Sales | Y1 (Year One) Using an aggressive 10% MPP (I say aggressive since MannKind is not yet a reputable and well branded company (hopefully this is where a major phrama can step-in and help) + low growth rate of sales as the product is newly launched in the market is expected as with all products following the product life-cycle model) 25.8 x .10 = 2.58 => 2.58 x 2000 = 5.160 Billion Gross Sales Y1 Using a reasonable 5% MPP 25.8 x .05 = 1.29 => 1.29 x 2000 = 2.580 Billion Gross Sales Y1 Using 2% MPP 25.8 x .02 = 0.516 => 0.516 x 2000 = 1.032 Billion Gross Sales Y1 www.diabetes.org/diabetes-basics/diabetes-statistics/Thank you, once again for your thoughts. I agree with your point that Al Mann drives a hard bargain but fortunately Greenhill was hired recently to formalize any partnership ordeals. Cheers, Chris |
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Post by spiro on Sept 8, 2013 9:44:15 GMT -5
It's interesting to read all of the predictions on MNKD's potential share price. IMHO, just using potential Afrezza revenues to predict future share price is not very realistic. The biggest reason is that FDA approval will validate MNKD's tecnnosphere technology. This has to be factored in to any potential buyout price. The technosphere platform is probably worth more than Afrezza after FDA approval. Also the first 1 or 2 billion dollar contract from India, China, etc. should be worth a nice stock price bounce. I still believe that MNKD will be taken over prior to an Afrezza sales launch date. I am not good at predicting prices, but I don't think Al would take less than $15 billion for Afrezza only right now, pre-approval. After FDA approval, throwing in technosphere,  ? Who Knows, but a lot more than $15 billion. BTW, the biggest market for Afrezza will probably come from diabetics on oral meds, where the meds are not controlling the disease and from diabetics in denial, who have A1c levels over 7 and receiving no treatment. How do you put a number on this population? Spiro |
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Post by rtccpa on Sept 11, 2013 15:46:43 GMT -5
Spiro- I've heard the technosphere platform being bandied about. I haven't been been using it's potential in any of my projections. Glad to see you feel that it may be worth more than the Afrezza alone. How does any one else feel about the potential of technosphere?
15 billion for Afrezza alone would be over seven times the current market cap of 2B, or a stock price of about $20.
(7 x $6 divided by 2 for potential dilution)
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Post by Chris on Sept 11, 2013 16:08:11 GMT -5
Spiro- I've heard the technosphere platform being bandied about. I haven't been been using it's potential in any of my projections. Glad to see you feel that it may be worth more than the Afrezza alone. How does any one else feel about the potential of technosphere? 15 billion for Afrezza alone would be over seven times the current market cap of 2B, or a stock price of about $20. (7 x $6 divided by 2 for potential dilution) MNKD's current Market Cap is not 2 B it's closer to 1.77 B also 7 x 6 = 42 42/2 = 21 not 20 Interesting to note that you also received an average rating of 1.3 out of 5 in Agoracom from 6 different users... agoracom.com/members/RtcCPA |
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Post by liane on Sept 11, 2013 16:56:56 GMT -5
Chris,
Given how inexact this process of valuing a company is at this stage, don't you think a little rounding is acceptable?
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Post by spiro on Sept 12, 2013 11:53:34 GMT -5
Spiro- I've heard the technosphere platform being bandied about. I haven't been been using it's potential in any of my projections. Glad to see you feel that it may be worth more than the Afrezza alone. How does any one else feel about the potential of technosphere?
15 billion for Afrezza alone would be over seven times the current market cap of 2B, or a stock price of about $20.
(7 x $6 divided by 2 for potential dilution)
I don't recall how long ago, but MNKD has stated in the past that once the technosphere technology has been validated by FDA approval of Afrezza, they could pursue numerous opportunities with other drugs. IMO, this would probably include quite a few generic drugs which would benefit the patient by faster delivery.
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Post by rak5555 on Sept 12, 2013 18:58:29 GMT -5
I am hoping the PPS can climb back to 6.20ish, which is where it had risen to just prior to boa downgrade. This would be a great launching pad for whatever pop we are going to get on the filing.
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 12, 2013 21:59:25 GMT -5
rak, my guess is that a pop on filing, if any, will be small and short-lived. But if we aren't on file by middle of October, the decline may be larger and long-lived.
Liane, "rounding" - no, no, no, got to hit it right on the head!! LOL!
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Post by Chris on Sept 12, 2013 23:11:06 GMT -5
Chris, Given how inexact this process of valuing a company is at this stage, don't you think a little rounding is acceptable? no, no, no, I want it down to the exact decimal. haha |
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Post by spiro on Sept 13, 2013 8:17:41 GMT -5
- People who post on message boards too often can be those who have lost their way, just look at OPC, Celutose and Smitty. - Spiro
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Post by babaoriley on Sept 13, 2013 9:25:30 GMT -5
LOL, a little philosophy from spiro! I expect to see that quote up on the chalk board of my morning coffee spot!
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? Who Knows, but a lot more than $15 billion. BTW, the biggest market for Afrezza will probably come from diabetics on oral meds, where the meds are not controlling the disease and from diabetics in denial, who have A1c levels over 7 and receiving no treatment. How do you put a number on this population? 
