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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 6, 2015 14:00:55 GMT -5
Need some help here with references if possible (links?).
I have been working with the rough numbers of 166k annual users per line (initial estimate).
We have been told that the two new lines are 10% more efficient so I have been accounting for them at 166k x 110% or 182.6k.
Can any one point me in the direction of the max output of cartridge units a line can produce in a year and whether this is applicable to the Line 1 only calculation or to the newer Line 2/3.
If I can get the max Cartridge output for the plant or for a line then we can see if their estimates for 2M annual user can actually be supported based upon current reported dollar levels and actual data report by users (anecdotal).
Enjoy,
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2015 14:05:28 GMT -5
400 cartridges per minute per line.
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 6, 2015 14:58:22 GMT -5
Fuga:
Not to question your answer, but do have a link to something MNKD has said or published?
Is that old line 1 or on new lines 2/3?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2015 15:11:15 GMT -5
Fuga:
Not to question your answer, but do have a link to something MNKD has said or published?
Is that old line 1 or on new lines 2/3?
OOG I dont have a link sorry. You're just going to have to take my word on it. FWIW, I remember either reading it in conference comments or during one of those Q&As when they were winning all the awards for danbury manufacturing site. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2015 15:15:13 GMT -5
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Post by otherottawaguy on Mar 6, 2015 15:44:01 GMT -5
That is the one sir, the excerpt from 2010 Q3 that I was a lookin' for below:
"This new system is something to behold. It is fully automated and truly amazing. This is huge, about 85 feet long. The input is Technosphere insulin powder, dose cups, cartridge covers and the packaging materials. The output is finished boxes of 90 cartridges that should be suitable for one month of therapy for most patients. The automation includes inspection and weighing of each cartridge and any cartridges bailing inspection are replaced by the robot.
This system produces cartridges at the rate of 400 per minute. Fifteen completed cartridges are sealed individually in a blister package, two of these are sealed in the foiled bag and three bags plus two inhalers and the package insert are placed in the box. Three of the commercial systems that launch will be sufficient to serve about 400,000 patients.
When the Danbury plant is fully equipped, the capacity is expected to be sufficient to serve about 2 million people. At the price of current rapid acting insulin analogs of equivalent dose, this capacity would potentially generate overall revenues of close to $4 billion."
Summary: Line 1 = 400/min, Line 2&3: 440/min
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Post by cybergym66 on Mar 6, 2015 15:59:02 GMT -5
That is the one sir, the excerpt from 2010 Q3 that I was a lookin' for below: "This new system is something to behold. It is fully automated and truly amazing. This is huge, about 85 feet long. The input is Technosphere insulin powder, dose cups, cartridge covers and the packaging materials. The output is finished boxes of 90 cartridges that should be suitable for one month of therapy for most patients. The automation includes inspection and weighing of each cartridge and any cartridges bailing inspection are replaced by the robot. This system produces cartridges at the rate of 400 per minute. Fifteen completed cartridges are sealed individually in a blister package, two of these are sealed in the foiled bag and three bags plus two inhalers and the package insert are placed in the box. Three of the commercial systems that launch will be sufficient to serve about 400,000 patients. When the Danbury plant is fully equipped, the capacity is expected to be sufficient to serve about 2 million people. At the price of current rapid acting insulin analogs of equivalent dose, this capacity would potentially generate overall revenues of close to $4 billion." Summary: Line 1 = 400/min, Line 2&3: 440/min How many hours are you assuming per week? At one time I thought they were running line 1 around the clock. (2-12hr shifts). That could affect max production estimates if you were assuming 5 day/8hr shifts or maybe also weekends. IF 24/7 then lets say 400 cartridges per minute... 400C/min X 60min/Hr X 24 Hr/Day X 365 Days/yr = 210,240,000 Cartridges a year. And that's just for 1 line. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2015 16:43:08 GMT -5
You have to assume a manufacturing reliability, as well as preventive maintenance into your math. Most of the time it's assumed to be conservatively estimated at 8hrs/day, so only 16hrs of day of production.
(My background is in process manufacturing, so I know this well)
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Post by cybergym66 on Mar 6, 2015 16:59:54 GMT -5
You have to assume a manufacturing reliability, as well as preventive maintenance into your math. Most of the time it's assumed to be conservatively estimated at 8hrs/day, so only 16hrs of day of production. (My background is in process manufacturing, so I know this well) Yes, I agree that there will be down time for any production line. I was pointing out that production could be higher if they were indeed doing 2-12 shifts (or 3-8hr shifts), which is what I thought I had read. I suspect MNKD will ensure demand doesn't outstrip production. I would say if come May at the annual shareholders meeting they say they are adding lines to meet demand then that would be very positive for the stock price. I could see that occurring if you're willing to extrapolate the increased need for sample kits above what they expected. Right now the best I could find was a comment mentioning that MNKD had a 24 hr work force with 3 shifts... seekingalpha.com/news/2217915-new-chief-at-mannkind |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2015 20:42:54 GMT -5
I am quite certain it's already a 24/7 operation, but you still have to assume only 16 hours of production because on average 8 hours a day you'll be doing PM, fixing stuff, and once in awhile you'll have a failure and downtime will be several days.
With that said, you've heard Matt and hakan refer to "better than expected yields". This is probably what they are referring to, I.e more hours per day producing vs maintenance.
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Post by beardawg on Mar 6, 2015 23:10:44 GMT -5
I am quite certain it's already a 24/7 operation, but you still have to assume only 16 hours of production because on average 8 hours a day you'll be doing PM, fixing stuff, and once in awhile you'll have a failure and downtime will be several days. With that said, you've heard Matt and hakan refer to "better than expected yields". This is probably what they are referring to, I.e more hours per day producing vs maintenance. In a pharmaceutical setting, the requirements are a lot more stringent, so there isn't as much variability allowed, which leads to lesser breakdowns than other industries. And, you can't just let equipment limp along. If the process is a simple batch process of mixing chemicals, then filling the packs with the result, usually once those get dialed in they run pretty well. It's when you have to add several ingredients continuously in a continuous process that it gets harder. Also, in the pharmaceutical environment it is cleaner, so you don't have as much outside elements that can make equipment break down. Then you have the redundancies of equipment that also keep the process going. I'd count on about 8-12 hours a week of complete downtime, if that. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2015 7:42:49 GMT -5
I get all that but they are assuming that much downtime, which is what other industries assume.
As a point of example:
100-120,000,000 cartridges.
Assuming 400 cartridges per minute
400 x 60 x X x 365 = 120,000,000
X = 13.7 hours.
And checking that math, they also told us 166,000 patients per line, one box a month
166,000 x 12 x 90 = 180,000,000 cartridges
400 x 60 x X x 365 = 180,000,000
X = 20.5 hours.
Average of those two calcs is just over 17 hours a day production.
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Post by beardawg on Mar 7, 2015 21:44:36 GMT -5
I get all that but they are assuming that much downtime, which is what other industries assume. As a point of example: 100-120,000,000 cartridges. Assuming 400 cartridges per minute 400 x 60 x X x 365 = 120,000,000 X = 13.7 hours. And checking that math, they also told us 166,000 patients per line, one box a month 166,000 x 12 x 90 = 180,000,000 cartridges 400 x 60 x X x 365 = 180,000,000 X = 20.5 hours. Average of those two calcs is just over 17 hours a day production. Gotcha. |
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Post by gomnkd on Mar 14, 2015 9:57:28 GMT -5
I cant understand this one box a month assumption and also the extrapolation of 400/min to compute per year production.
10-K clearly states that they can make up to 120MM cartridges/line. Even fully expanded to 12 lines, it translates to 1.44 billion/year.
As per Q transcript, it says 1 box (90 count) lasts a month. Most pt use 2-3/meal given low units of dosages. You may run out of 8U and start using two of 4U. And not to mention correctional ones. I expect patients to use on average ~2500 cartridges/year. It comes to ~600,000 patients. with only one unit operational, it can handle hardly 50,000 patients/year. It is no wonder Sanofi is going slow & steady. Also allocate 10-15% of cartridges in first year for samples.
The numbers given above are at high end (per line is 100-120). So in reality Sanofi can hardly handle 35K pt/year right now. I've not even included wastage (QC issues), samples stuck in doc offices, expired ones, pt losing it etc
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2015 10:50:04 GMT -5
It's not extrapolation. At one time or another MNKD told us different things. They told us 4 billion cartridges and 2mil patients Max, they told us 400 cartridges per minute. they told us 100-120mil carts per line. Using any one of those, you arrive at a different number, but it's not like it's order of magnitudes off, they all get in the ball park.
With that said we have discussed (oog and I) in other threads how that if the box draw is 1.5-2, all the patient math is off.
And, I agree with you. If you assume every patient needs 2 boxes per month this year, and lines 2/3 aren't on til june, when you factor in samples, loss etc it isn't a high patient number before you are out of product. Granted they could probably support 200-300 NRX at this point, but people expecting 1000 NRX at this point? They just don't get it, the plant would be sold out and that wouldn't be good at all.
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