|
Post by BlueCat on Mar 28, 2015 21:35:29 GMT -5
I have 3 thoughts about M&A:
1) I agree that SNY will wait until they substantiate the market potential of Afrezza before entertaining a buyout; however, they will have the insight to know the market potential of Afrezza way before the rest of us. Its not just sales, but sales relative to effort. For example, not only do they know how many sample packs are being distributed, they know the conversion rate from samples to scripts. 2) Recently, SNY has shown that it first takes a position in partner's stock, then gradually adds. Certainly this is cheaper than announcing a buyout price for 100% of the shares. Better to buy first 10, 20, xx% at discount, then announce buyout. 3) Once SNY realizes the true global potential of Afrezza, they will not want to entrust manufacturing to a small company with absolutely zero global manufacturing experience. Solution to this risk = buyout of MNKD or at least all things Afrezza (and future TI diabetes applications).
PS: I typed this post while driving my car. Besides the contract allowing for SNY to start manufacturing after a milestone - Wasn't there something in the contract that also stated SNY can not take a larger than 5% stake?
|
|
|
Post by rak5555 on Mar 29, 2015 15:07:45 GMT -5
I apologize for my poor attempt at humor. I was not driving while typing. I was making fun of the self important Dr. Tran who records videos discussing MNKD while driving his car.
I also must humbly admit that I was not aware that SNY has future manufacturing rights for Afrezza tied to sales. When I read the agreement, I thought it was manufacturing rights for the insulin, thus replacing Amphastar.
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 29, 2015 18:10:08 GMT -5
I apologize for my poor attempt at humor. I was not driving while typing. I was making fun of the self important Dr. Tran who records videos discussing MNKD while driving his car. I also must humbly admit that I was not aware that SNY has future manufacturing rights for Afrezza tied to sales. When I read the agreement, I thought it was manufacturing rights for the insulin, thus replacing Amphastar. They have the right to create their own Afrezza manufacturing after the Mannkind plant has reached X% of full capacity, and that X is redacted. Given that 3 lines were planned immediately, reading between the lines one might assume that whatever the X is, it is greater than 3 lines. If I had to guess I'd imagine that the X is somewhere between 50 - 80%. There was also some language about how manufacturing would be split between the Mannkind and Sanofi plants to fairly split production once Sanofi has a plant.
|
|
|
Post by yossarian on Mar 30, 2015 7:40:09 GMT -5
I have 3 thoughts about M&A:
1) I agree that SNY will wait until they substantiate the market potential of Afrezza before entertaining a buyout; however, they will have the insight to know the market potential of Afrezza way before the rest of us. Its not just sales, but sales relative to effort. For example, not only do they know how many sample packs are being distributed, they know the conversion rate from samples to scripts. 2) Recently, SNY has shown that it first takes a position in partner's stock, then gradually adds. Certainly this is cheaper than announcing a buyout price for 100% of the shares. Better to buy first 10, 20, xx% at discount, then announce buyout. 3) Once SNY realizes the true global potential of Afrezza, they will not want to entrust manufacturing to a small company with absolutely zero global manufacturing experience. Solution to this risk = buyout of MNKD or at least all things Afrezza (and future TI diabetes applications).
PS: I typed this post while driving my car
If Sanofi accumulates more than 5% of MNKD stock, they have to report that to the SEC and it is public record.
|
|