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Post by biotec on May 9, 2015 18:26:40 GMT -5
I'm working on some of this offline. I'll share when I have something worth while. I have a good feel for the flow now, just need the 10Q which should be avail Monday . What id really like is to speak with an accountant in the forum to clarify some things. Just call Matt the best accountant around, He will answer all you ?'s (:
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2015 18:28:27 GMT -5
Fwiw I've had a few questions about the accounting and note and he answers me within the day.
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Post by hawkfan9 on May 10, 2015 0:32:34 GMT -5
Here are my thoughts: right now, Novolog, Humalog, and Apidra have a market sales of 8.2 B/year. Too have MNKD break even, conservatively we need 200 million in revenue. This is about $571,420,000 in total Afrezza sales. Afrezza would need to capture 6.97% of the N,H,A WORLD market to earn 200 M in revenues. Every 3.5% of that specific market in addition to the 7% would garner Mannkind an additional $100,000,000 in revenues which would be about $71,000,000 in profits. (I believe these numbers for NHA are global sales. But, if anyone has US sales, the market share of just the US could be easily determined).
Another scenario that I ran through, this one is a little on the agressive side as it takes into account all diabetics in the US. If we assume that the JV will bring in $2000/ year-long Afrezza user and MNKD get $700 of that, and that there are roughly 31 million diabetics in the US, of which only about 31% use insulin. 200 million/700 = Mannkind needing roughly 285,714 year-long Afrezza users to bring in 200 million in revenues. 31 million *.31 is about 10 million diabetics using insulin in the US.
285,714 users/10 million possible users= 2.86% US market share for 200 million in revenues.
Both scenarios are very obtainable and I think that Afrezza will get there. If you have any questions or different ideas on my numbers, please share. & don't be afraid to point out any mistakes or assumptions that I am making that you believe to be false.
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