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Post by eddiemoy on May 11, 2015 17:04:44 GMT -5
Does anyone have a clue as to how much it cost MNKD to produce Afrezza? Specifically looking for cost per cartridge or per monthly box of 90 cartridges.
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2015 17:19:39 GMT -5
Does anyone have a clue as to how much it cost MNKD to produce Afrezza? Specifically looking for cost per cartridge or per monthly box of 90 cartridges. yes, benh and I are working on a project of sorts. more to come.
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Post by eddiemoy on May 11, 2015 20:16:52 GMT -5
I thought the average retail cost per 1 month prescription for Afrezza was somewhere close to $450-500 based on a online order posed on twitter... I can't find the tweet anymore... But from this article, it says the cash price is $334 www.healthline.com/diabetesmine/welcome-afrezza-inhaled-insulin-gets-real#4"CVS wasn't hip to sharing prices without an Rx, but Walgreens and Kroger both quoted a cost of $334 out-of-pocket cash price for a box of 30 4-unit cartridges + 60 of the 8-unit cartridges." from another tweet, , it is $.53 per unit, 2 months supply over the above $630. So Walmart is a little cheaper than Walgreens and Krogers.
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Post by mnholdem on May 12, 2015 10:13:16 GMT -5
Does anyone have a clue as to how much it cost MNKD to produce Afrezza? Specifically looking for cost per cartridge or per monthly box of 90 cartridges. MannKind would never release that information, but since two of my medical device companies manufacture plastics, I can estimate the DreamBoat COGS to be somewhere in the $0.125-$0.225 range, assuming average burden rates. The cartridge would be under $.08 regardless of unit capacity.
It's my understanding that a 3rd Party manufacturer is presently making these and that MannKind Corporation is also looking for an alternative supplier (always a smart idea). So add a reasonable profit margin for the supplier.
The Technosphere insulin itself is relatively cheap, and based on the throughput numbers Matt has provided for Lines 1, 2 and 3 I'm estimating that the profit margin is considerably higher than many are estimating. Now that I've seen the premium Sanofi is charging for Afrezza, IMO it's somewhere around 80%-90% profit margin.
Incidentally, I read an interesting article about the government rules under the Affordable Care Act that REQUIRE drug manufacturers to discount the government around 23% and 12% for branded and generics respectively. That rule may have played a role in why Sanofi priced Afrezza higher than injectables, when I was hoping they'd do the opposite.
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Post by eddiemoy on May 12, 2015 11:49:13 GMT -5
Does anyone have a clue as to how much it cost MNKD to produce Afrezza? Specifically looking for cost per cartridge or per monthly box of 90 cartridges. MannKind would never release that information, but since two of my medical device companies manufacture plastics, I can estimate the DreamBoat COGS to be somewhere in the $0.125-$0.225 range, assuming average burden rates. The cartridge would be under $.08 regardless of unit capacity.
It's my understanding that a 3rd Party manufacturer is presently making these and that MannKind Corporation is also looking for an alternative supplier (always a smart idea). So add a reasonable profit margin for the supplier.
The Technosphere insulin itself is relatively cheap, and based on the throughput numbers Matt has provided for Lines 1, 2 and 3 I'm estimating that the profit margin is considerably higher than many are estimating. Now that I've seen the premium Sanofi is charging for Afrezza, IMO it's somewhere around 80%-90% profit margin.
Incidentally, I read an interesting article about the government rules under the Affordable Care Act that REQUIRE drug manufacturers to discount the government around 23% and 12% for branded and generics respectively. That rule may have played a role in why Sanofi priced Afrezza higher than injectables, when I was hoping they'd do the opposite.
so based on your estimate of $0.08 per cartridge and minimum cartridge size is 4U, sales from the 1 month supply 90 cartridges = $334, that would equate to $3.71 per cartridge retail. lets say it cost same $0.08 for insulin... that would mean cost to produce 1 cartridge would be $0.16, that is 1/23rd of the price of retail! so the shipment to sanofi if it was $7.1M = $164M of product!! That is over the run rate for the single line... single line is 10M cartridges per month, or 111K 1 month supplies x $334 per package = ~$37M at full production or $111M per quarter. I'm thinking if i work this backwards, assuming they are running at full capacity of the single line for the last 3 months, that would be $111M retail product based on the above... if the $7.1M is shipment at cost, it comes out to 1/15 the cost per cartridge... or $0.23 per cartridge. Interesting!!
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Post by mnholdem on May 12, 2015 12:25:58 GMT -5
There are other costs (i.e. packaging) that should be added. I threw out what I believe to be the actually cost of the cartridge itself as well as the cost of the inhaler. However, given how many pharmacies got stocked in the U.S. leading up to and after launch, I would not be surprised if $100M (retail value) of Afrezza has been shipped.
Incidentally, Griffin Securities estimates MannKind's revenue under the MannKind/Sanofi 35%/65% profit sharing plan to be:
Revenue Estimates (in $ thousands)
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | - | $110,577 | $267,964 | $522,007 | $785,506 |
...perhaps we'll never know exactly how much Afrezza is inventoried around the country, but $100M initial stock seems prudent for a drug of Afrezza's potential. IMHO
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 12:58:32 GMT -5
Based on the stuff I've been working on, $7mil in product shipped has a sell value of $42 mil
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Post by eddiemoy on May 12, 2015 13:05:18 GMT -5
Based on the stuff I've been working on, $7mil in product shipped has a sell value of $42 mil so based on retail of $3.71 per cartridge, the total cost of manufacturing based on your number is 1/6th the retail value? or about $0.62? how did you arrive at that number might i ask? That means for the quarter, they only produced 11.45M cartridges. about 1/3 of what their max capacity would be. does that sound right? I thought they were pulling 3 shifts at the factory... would think they were running at full capacity with 3 shifts.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 15:34:03 GMT -5
30mil cartridges in 1Q, 333k boxes.
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Post by eddiemoy on May 12, 2015 16:15:14 GMT -5
30mil cartridges in 1Q, 333k boxes. How did you come out with7m MNKD sales= 42m retail?34 Cooper Sq. New York, NY 10003
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 18:28:28 GMT -5
30mil cartridges in 1Q, 333k boxes. How did you come out with7m MNKD sales= 42m retail?34 Cooper Sq. New York, NY 10003 Because we've calculated that MNKD is selling SNY Afrezza at a COG of ~$35/box and that, in turn, SNY is getting $210/box in rev. We have further breakdowns of COGs (insulin costs, packaging costs, etc), but you get the idea. Therefore, with $7mm in orders from SNY, $42mil in rev would be realized. Note, however, that the collaboration cost for this $7mm is only $6mm, therefore on the backend, only $2.1 mil comes back on the collaboration line.
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Post by mnholdem on May 12, 2015 18:36:53 GMT -5
fug has the numbers dialed in way better than I do. I'm curious where you're going with this, Eddie.
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Post by eddiemoy on May 12, 2015 22:01:13 GMT -5
How did you come out with7m MNKD sales= 42m retail?34 Cooper Sq. New York, NY 10003 Because we've calculated that MNKD is selling SNY Afrezza at a COG of ~$35/box and that, in turn, SNY is getting $210/box in rev. We have further breakdowns of COGs (insulin costs, packaging costs, etc), but you get the idea. Therefore, with $7mm in orders from SNY, $42mil in rev would be realized. Note, however, that the collaboration cost for this $7mm is only $6mm, therefore on the backend, only $2.1 mil comes back on the collaboration line. fug, are you figuring in the discount when you are quoting the $210 rev per box? because i've seen multiple sources show that is it roughly $334 per box in rev not $210. so based on that, rev should be at least $66M. unless there is some kind of discount... so if we accept the COG as $35/box, that would mean ~$0.39 per cartridge... $7.1m of goods only accounts for 18M cartridges, so the plant is not running at 10M a month with 1 line...
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Post by eddiemoy on May 12, 2015 22:03:05 GMT -5
fug has the numbers dialed in way better than I do. I'm curious where you're going with this, Eddie. just trying to figure out all the numbers. i like to have all the numbers to i have a clearer picture of how much product was produced and how much money they can make and if any of the analyst predictions make any sense.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 22:41:33 GMT -5
Because we've calculated that MNKD is selling SNY Afrezza at a COG of ~$35/box and that, in turn, SNY is getting $210/box in rev. We have further breakdowns of COGs (insulin costs, packaging costs, etc), but you get the idea. Therefore, with $7mm in orders from SNY, $42mil in rev would be realized. Note, however, that the collaboration cost for this $7mm is only $6mm, therefore on the backend, only $2.1 mil comes back on the collaboration line. fug, are you figuring in the discount when you are quoting the $210 rev per box? because i've seen multiple sources show that is it roughly $334 per box in rev not $210. so based on that, rev should be at least $66M. unless there is some kind of discount... so if we accept the COG as $35/box, that would mean ~$0.39 per cartridge... $7.1m of goods only accounts for 18M cartridges, so the plant is not running at 10M a month with 1 line... It's running full. They show it as inventory. The $210 is a swag on all discounts and rebates
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