Any idea what's going on in the water today?

[sportsrancho]

Jefferies report, plus Nates Notes became available to the public today. The Jefferies price target was also right in line with Nates target. Basically a double every year for the next 3 years:-). Shorts said on ST yesterday that they were done. ( The main ones). Brokers that were down on MNKD for years, saying that Al Mann was all fluff, now calling clients and saying buy buy buy! JMO sports

[newmnkdinvestor]

Sooooo as I have said many times I am new to finance and investing. I have two cousins in finance one of which owns a mutual fund. I bounce ideas of them and they both hate the stock but have warmed up to it as of late. So anytime I read something like the GS position from the 13f I throw it out there. Today it was explained that the 13f filing is recorded today but filed as of 3/31. So there is a 45 day window you are not seeing and its not as of today.


Am I understanding this correctly now?

[Deleted]

Yes, data is thru 3/31, they file within 45 days.

[seanismorris]

Nope, you're all wrong ; )

Here's my bet

in.reuters.com/article/2015/05/15/fda-diabetes-idINL1N0Y615520150515

I need to to do more research but this might make MNKD a buy for me.  Docs may be looking for alternatives (Afrezza) sooner than they normally would.

----first part----

May 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Friday warned that a widely used newer class of type 2 diabetes drugs sold by AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Eli Lilly in partnership with Boehringer Ingleheim may cause dangerously high levels of blood acids that could require hospitalization.

The oral drugs belong to a class known as SGLT2 inhibitors that work by causing blood sugar to be secreted in the urine. They include AstraZeneca's Farxiga (dapagliflozin), J&J's Invokana (canagliflozin) and Jardiance (embagliflozin) from Lilly and Boehringer.

The FDA, in a warning on its website, said the medicines may lead to ketoacidosis, a serious condition where the body produces high levels of blood acids called ketones.

[babaoriley]

Yes, Sean, I believe that's one of the many leading contenders as a reason. It was mentioned elsewhere by someone early today. May have been the reason for some covering.

Also, since those 13f's are as of 3/31, you'd think those boys would get the word out to their followers well before the 13f's become public, but who knows.

Hard to know which is the biggest factor, but certainly the brakes being put on at $4 is something we're used to.

[als57]

And to think that Mannkind management was oblivious to the Spirometer issue, the very same issue that faced Pizer, and yet they want shareholders on the May 21, annual meeting to "slather" them up with 10 million additional cheap options for their stellar executive performance!  I well understand it's a foregone conclusion, but I want to look into their eyes to see if there is even a smidgen of guilt of looting retail holders!

[compound26]

Why MannKind Stock Got New Life Breathed Into It Today

By Brian Feroldi

May 15, 2015 

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: MannKind Corp. stock shot up 12% today on heavy trading volume after two pieces of news related to the company were released.

So what: First, investment services group Jefferies affirmed its Buy rating on the stock with a $9 price target after conducting a survey of physicians about their use of MannKind's sole product on the market, an inhaled insulin called Afrezza. The survey found that 35% of physicians didn't even know that Afrezza was available for sale.

In addition, providers confirmed that the lung function testing that management mentioned on the most recent conference call was indeed a reason for slow initial adoption, and they rated it as a 5 out of 5 burden for prescribing the drug when the office did not own a spirometer, which is the device needed to perform the prerequisite lung tests. Jefferies sees expanded access to spirometers and the start of advertising in the third quarter as near-term catalysts that will lift sales.

Second, the FDA issued a warning that SGLT2 inhibitors for diabetes, which are competitors to Afrezza, may result in ketoacidosis, a serious condition that may require hospitalization. Brand name drugs mentioned in the report include Invokana, Farxiga, and Jardiance. The FDA is further investigating the safety issue and will determine if they need to alter the prescribing information for SGLT2 drugs.

www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/05/15/why-mannkind-stock-got-new-life-breathed-into-it-t.aspx

[compound26]

MannKind Corporation Surges On Results Of Afrezza Survey

Michelle Jones

Posted date: May 15, 2015 03:43:41 PM

MannKind shares surged today after one firm released the results from its physician survey of the company’s inhaled insulin, Afrezza. The stock climbed as much as 11.57% to $4.05 per share during regular trading hours.

Prescription growth for Afrezza has been going slowly, as most analysts have expected, but the big question mark now is whether growth will pick up or if Afrezza will turn out to be a dud.

Physicians respond favorably to Afrezza

Jefferies analyst Shaunak Deepak said they surveyed 120 doctors regarding Afrezza, how often they prescribe it and how often they intend to prescribe it going forward. The survey covered both primary care doctors and endocrinologists.

According to Deepak, more than one-third (35%) of the doctors they spoke to didn’t even know about Afrezza. However, the doctors that did about the inhaled insulin, said they expected to prescribe it more often than the analyst had previously expected, particularly in treating Type 1 diabetes.

MannKind must educate

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets have been keeping close tabs on weekly prescription numbers for MannKind’s only drug on the market. Progress has been very slow, although the firm has remained bullish on the insulin maker.

Jefferies’ Deepak has now provided some reasons for the slowness, thanks to the survey. The analyst said the biggest problem MannKind faces in terms of getting Afrezza in the hands of patients is physician ignorance. According to Deepak, 8% of the doctors they surveyed don’t expect to prescribe the inhaled insulin.

That, when combined with the 35% who didn’t know about it, indicates that nearly half of doctors who treat diabetes aren’t writing scripts for Afrezza. Just 12 of the doctors (or 10%) who were surveyed had actually written a prescription for Afrezza.

Barriers to entry

In addition to simply not knowing that Afrezza exists, the other big problem is the requirement for lung function testing before the inhaled insulin can be prescribed. Analysts knew from the start that this would be a problem for MannKind. According to Deepak, the doctors who didn’t own a spirometer (the tool used for lung function testing) rated the test a five out of five burden. On the other hand, doctors who did own a spirometer rated the issue a 2.5 out of five burden.

Like RBC, Jefferies remains bullish on MannKind, with Deepak reiterating the firm’s Buy rating and $9 per share price target on the drug maker. The analyst said MannKind is aiming to “expand access to spirometers” and plans to begin advertising Afrezza in the third quarter. He sees these two plans as being positive catalysts.

When MannKind does start advertising, the analyst expects the “eventual rate” of doctors who won’t prescribe Afrezza to fall to around 12%. Deepak added that the use numbers for this year through 2017 that are implied from their survey suggest that the penetration rate of the drug will be almost four times higher than what they previously estimated. The result would be a $37 per share price target, the analyst said.

In the first quarter of this year, MannKind and marketing partner Sanofi sold about $1.1 million worth of Afrezza.

www.valuewalk.com/2015/05/mannkind-corporation-surges-on-results-of-afrezza-survey/

[compound26]

Here is the original report of Jefferies issued in August 2014, where you can see their assumptions of peak sales and market penetration rate.  

This will give context to Jefferies' latest comment "when MannKind does start advertising, the analyst expects the “eventual rate” of doctors who won’t prescribe Afrezza to fall to around 12%. Deepak added that the use numbers for this year through 2017 that are implied from their survey suggest that the penetration rate of the drug will be almost four times higher than what they previously estimated. The result would be a $37 per share price target."

Jefferies Sees Peak Afrezza Sales of $3.2B, Starts MannKind (MNKD) at Buy

August 27, 2014 7:30 AM EDT

Jefferies initiated coverage on MannKind with a Buy rating and a price target of $10.00. Analyst Shaunak Deepak said he was taking a contrarian stance ahead of Afrezza launch. He sees peak Afrezza sales of $3.2 billion.

"MNKD is off 33% since the Afrezza approval, reflecting negative Street sentiment about the Sanofi partnership and upcoming launch. Key concerns include docs not adopting Afrezza as a first-line insulin, aggressive counter-detailing from Novo and Lilly to protect their stake in the $6b+ mealtime insulin market, and a bad track record with the only other approved inhaled insulin, Exubera," said Deepak.

"We believe Afrezza could address a major unmet need among patients poorly controlled with oral drugs that have not advanced to injectable agents. Surveys of insulin non-adherence suggest a not insubstantial portion of patients reject insulin due to reluctance to take shots. Accounting for other factors that influence patient avoidance of insulin, we believe Afrezza could be used as a first-line insulin for almost 8% of type 2 patients failing oral drugs, worth $1.6b in peak U.S. sales. We believe Sanofi would promote Afrezza as a first-line insulin to gain and retain patients for its $8b+ insulin franchise," he continued.

"While Afrezza has shown non-inferiority to Novolog as a mealtime add-on in both type 1 and type 2 diabetics, we believe the significantly better A1c reductions with Novolog will be a challenge for marketing Afrezza. Compounding this is the Street’s memory of Exubera as a flop associated with lung cancer. We believe some patients only on basal insulin will be attracted to Afrezza’s benefits in hypoglycemia and weight gain, while some current mealtime insulin users will be drawn to reductions in injection burden and the whistle-like delivery device, which is more discrete than Exubera’s. We expect modest 3% and 6% penetration among type 1 and type 2 patients already on insulin, contributing $200m and $650m in U.S. sales. We see Sanofi as strongly motivated to promote Afrezza in this setting as its mealtime insulin, Apidra, only has a 3% share," he added.

www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Jefferies+Sees+Peak+Afrezza+Sales+of+$3.2B,+Starts+MannKind+(MNKD)+at+Buy/9785895.html

[compound26]

If one multiplies the assumed penetration rate by four, then the assumptions in the original report will look like something below:

Peak Afrezza sales of $12.8 billion.
 
First-line insulin for 32% of type 2 patients failing oral drugs, worth $6.4b in peak U.S. sales.

12% and 24% penetration among type 1 and type 2 patients already on insulin, contributing $800m and $2.6b in U.S. sales.

[kball]

May 16, 2015 11:07:39 GMT -5 compound26 said:

Here is the original report of Jefferies issued in August 2014, where you can see their assumptions of peak sales and market penetration rate.  

This will give context to Jefferies' latest comment "when MannKind does start advertising, the analyst expects the “eventual rate” of doctors who won’t prescribe Afrezza to fall to around 12%. Deepak added that the use numbers for this year through 2017 that are implied from their survey suggest that the penetration rate of the drug will be almost four times higher than what they previously estimated. The result would be a $37 per share price target."

Jefferies Sees Peak Afrezza Sales of $3.2B, Starts MannKind (MNKD) at Buy

August 27, 2014 7:30 AM EDT

-snip...

"While Afrezza has shown non-inferiority to Novolog as a mealtime add-on in both type 1 and type 2 diabetics, we believe the significantly better A1c reductions with Novolog will be a challenge for marketing Afrezza. Compounding this is the Street’s memory of Exubera as a flop associated with lung cancer. We believe some patients only on basal insulin will be attracted to Afrezza’s benefits in hypoglycemia and weight gain, while some current mealtime insulin users will be drawn to reductions in injection burden and the whistle-like delivery device, which is more discrete than Exubera’s. We expect modest 3% and 6% penetration among type 1 and type 2 patients already on insulin, contributing $200m and $650m in U.S. sales. We see Sanofi as strongly motivated to promote Afrezza in this setting as its mealtime insulin, Apidra, only has a 3% share," he added.


-snip...

Not certain of figures currently, but since launch it would seem ALMOST ALL patients now on Afrezza were ALREADY on insulin. My hope is that 3-6% cited above turns out to be ridiculously under estimated