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Post by chicagpete on Jun 12, 2015 18:58:57 GMT -5
My guess is Al loans mnkd the money to repay BofA note if Plan A fails. How else could Matt state no dilution unless he had a solid Plan B? Agree 100% - Matt acknowledged and made reference to Al at the same BofA conference in Vegas on this topic.
A loan from Al is also fine imo - as it would preserve cash until milestones and eventual sales proceeds are realized.
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Post by obamayoumama on Jun 12, 2015 19:41:01 GMT -5
My guess is Al loans mnkd the money to repay BofA note if Plan A fails. How else could Matt state no dilution unless he had a solid Plan B? Agree 100% - Matt acknowledged and made reference to Al at the same BofA conference in Vegas on this topic.
A loan from Al is also fine imo - as it would preserve cash until milestones and eventual sales proceeds are realized.
Matt has several choices. Most likely the note will be extended a few years with a higher conversion price, I hope it is $10 or higher. Remember last time MNKD was trading about here when they issued the convertible. MNKD had no approved product at that point. Any convertible that is exchanged, given MNKD current status MNKD would demand a higher conversion price and lower interest, and no 9 million shares shorted. I spoke to Matt and he wanted to wait until closer to August because the higher MNKD goes the less dilutive any convertible would be and the MORE leverage MNKD would have. For them to exchange out convertibles the stock does not need to be above $6.80. If they can't come to an agreement if the stock is above $6.80, then the convertible will be paid with stock and if MNKD is below $6.80 they will be paid in cash. MNKD will have another $25 million from Sanofi for the additional lines before August 15th. They have the cash to pay the bond off, Matt knows MNKD's finances better than anyone else. Al Mann has invested about 1 Billion of his own money. Does anyone believe that Al would let MNKD go over $100 million dollar convert?
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Jun 12, 2015 20:05:07 GMT -5
"They have managed a scientific company that has developed the most rapid acting and effective insulin product ever made. There have been pitfalls and setbacks along the way but they have rolled with the punches and made it a reality (certainly along with Al of course). They must be astounded that the Wall Street money grubbers who will sell their own sister to make a buck don't get it." I don't know about Matt and Hakan being more sophisticated than the "Wall Street guys". I am sure they could be, but their job is not to worry about the sp on a day to day basis, or to be too concerned about the games played in Wall Street, especially if this does not directly affect the financial health of MNKD. However, I completely agree with you on the fact that is this team that through thick and thin, overcoming considerable obstacles, has managed to bring a completely revolutionary product to market. A product, I might add, that no other pharma company managed to successfully bring to life. To think that they walked that long path to now lose interest or let Sanofi, or anybody else for that matter, squander it would be ridiculous. To think that they have gone through the hardest part of their journey just to surrender and stop their push now that success is within reach it is equally ridiculous. They are not here to play games or even to counter the games others play. Their role is to make sure plans move ahead in as much smooth a manner as possible and this I think they are doing fairly well. Their time agenda might not fit that of us retail investors, but they can hardly be accused of incompetence because of that. I have not always agreed with how they have handled things over the last year, but in my opinion, I will say it one more time, they have been honest dealers, sometimes trap by the circumstances, but honest nonetheless.
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Post by jpg on Jun 12, 2015 20:11:13 GMT -5
"They have managed a scientific company that has developed the most rapid acting and effective insulin product ever made. There have been pitfalls and setbacks along the way but they have rolled with the punches and made it a reality (certainly along with Al of course). They must be astounded that the Wall Street money grubbers who will sell their own sister to make a buck don't get it." I don't know about Matt and Hakan being more sophisticated than the "Wall Street guys". I am sure they could be, but their job is not to worry about the sp on a day to day basis, or to be too concerned about the games played in Wall Street, especially if this does not directly affect the financial health of MNKD. However, I completely agree with you on the fact that is this team that through thick and thin, overcoming considerable obstacles, has managed to bring a completely revolutionary product to market. A product, I might add, that no other pharma company managed to successfully bring to life. To think that they walked that long path to now lose interest or let Sanofi, or anybody else for that matter, squander it would be ridiculous. To think that they have gone through the hardest part of their journey just to surrender and stop their push now that success is within reach it is equally ridiculous. They are not here to play games or even to counter the games others play. Their role is to make sure plans move ahead in as much smooth a manner as possible and this I think they are doing fairly well. Their time agenda might not fit that of us retail investors, but they can hardly be accused of incompetence because of that. I have not always agreed with how they have handled things over the last year, but in my opinion, I will say it one more time, they have been honest dealers, sometimes trap by the circumstances, but honest nonetheless. Well said.
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Post by kc on Jun 12, 2015 21:34:12 GMT -5
BUY IN by Sanofi of 10% works too. My guess is they already own 4.99% of MannKind My guess is Al loans mnkd the money to repay BofA note if Plan A fails. How else could Matt state no dilution unless he had a solid Plan B?
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Post by mannmade on Jun 13, 2015 0:31:33 GMT -5
Am not sure they can without Mnkd approval. Think thefe may be a "stand still" clause in the Agreement for a period of time So would equire Mnkd approval.
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Post by kball on Jun 13, 2015 6:17:10 GMT -5
My guess is Al loans mnkd the money to repay BofA note if Plan A fails. How else could Matt state no dilution unless he had a solid Plan B? Sanofi taking on the debt maybe?
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Post by kc on Jun 13, 2015 10:47:21 GMT -5
Approval will not be withheld by the board. This is a minor technicality and the board of MannKind and Sanofi already have that deal worked out but not announced. Everything is about timing and the plan is in place whether or not we know it both companies know how it will play out. Am not sure they can without Mnkd approval. Think thefe may be a "stand still" clause in the Agreement for a period of time So would equire Mnkd approval.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2015 10:55:11 GMT -5
I realize this has been your belief for some time but as I've said repeatedly, sny has historically reported buying shares the second they start. They have never waited too a certain percentage.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 13, 2015 11:01:31 GMT -5
Plus it is not Al's history to sell early. However I suppose anything is possible.
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Post by dudley on Jun 13, 2015 13:40:23 GMT -5
Regarding the convertible, did no one listen to the GS conference?
Matt: "And I have almost daily talks with different organizations and holders of the convert because they are very interested too. Most of the calls I get are from people looking because they like their paper and they want to keep it or some form of it.
And so I’ve always said if we can find a way to do it that made sense for the company, we would probably extend it or roll out a bunch of the instrument. When we get closer, we will be able to see which makes more sense."
The intention is clearly to either convert some or all of the issue depending on what the share price is, or to simply extend or roll over the current holders. If these holders liked the prospects of converting at $6.80 4 years ago when FDA approval was not even obtained they must LOVE things now when they are seeing the "I am a type-1 and live like a non-diabetic. For me it has been a cure" comments and watching these amazing A1c numbers pouring in. The convertible is a NON issue, 100% guaranteed. By the end of August the ONLY argument left for the shorts will be "the product will never sell".
That will take care of itself over time. We have no really meaningful way to track scripts at this stage given that the major pharmacy chains do not report them but it is virtually certain they are significantly greater than the current Symphony numbers show. Sanofi will report sales sometime in early August and we can get an inkling of a full quarter after early momentum began taking hold. Anything before that is just a guess, nothing more.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jun 14, 2015 16:36:13 GMT -5
... That will take care of itself over time. We have no really meaningful way to track scripts at this stage given that the major pharmacy chains do not report them but it is virtually certain they are significantly greater than the current Symphony numbers show. Sanofi will report sales sometime in early August and we can get an inkling of a full quarter after early momentum began taking hold. Anything before that is just a guess, nothing more. Thanks for bringing in the comments from Matt. Certainly give a good idea of what they are anticipating. However, on the Symphony numbers, where are you getting the information they don't cover big chains. I seem to remember hearing that the two services each cover about 75% to 80% of the market. I suppose this is easy to verify by looking at a blockbuster drug which is reported by some big pharma in their reports and comparing to what Symphony shows.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2015 17:47:20 GMT -5
So the stock is up 70% in a month and right where it was a week ago. A week ago 5.70 was making everyone giddy. Today it draws comments like this. The fact is mnkd is a volatile stock. It always has been. There are polar opposite views of Afrezza. Obstacles are nothing new to this company and they have been overcome as they have presented themselves in the past. This thread should be called, "I feel like whining". Maybe then all whining can take place here so those that don't want to read it can avoid it. Actually, the idea of a thread for skittish, tired, or frustrated investors to sound off is not a bad idea. Lending shares to the shorts and then complaining about the drop in share price sounds like a fool's game to me, but I don't blame people for trying to get a return on their investment dollars. There are very few worthwhile high return investments where a person can sit on the porch and drink lemonade while returns flow in without feeling the pressure of risk. Anxiety, discomfort and insomnia are part of the journey for people not seeing the big picture or having unrealistic expectations. And, as for the drumbeat of criticism around the executive team; one also notices that this tends to correlate with the movement of the share price. Actually, no CEO is without blemish; and Hakan, who is relatively new to his role, still knows well that what matters is execution. Afrezza got approved, a partnership with a 5 star global pharma got signed, scripts have started flowing in, and other drugs are in the pipeline. It's been said repeatedly that building this into a blockbuster will take 2-3 years, and involve overcoming multiple challenges; yet progress is reported on all fronts. As long as the short position continues to be large and as long as FUD can be spread, we will continue to see the volatility we see. So from my porch, I see a road being built, and drivers screaming about the delays and the uneven pavement. But I know that once that pavement is laid, there will be happy faces and smooth rides moving across my field of view. So, I'm happy to watch the commotion, lean back, smile, and pour myself another glass of lemonade. The drug and technology will be successful. Chris C Chris. Excellent analogy. I think most(myself included)are long term investors. 5 years or if it reaches my target, or of course a buyout. I like the weekly RX numbers, slow yes, but INCREASING! Have we finally hit our stride? Any week where numbers fail to impress will be a buying opportunity, but these are becoming few. So. Here I am sitting on the porch as your neighbor so to speak. The road is being completed, slow and sure. I find amusement in those who have no patience. Reminds me of my time invested in OLED. Shorts up the wazzu, negative articles, everything that you could imagine. In the end 100% return, and a very happy me.
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Post by peppy on Jun 15, 2015 10:11:18 GMT -5
MNKD is being bought. I firmly believe this is why. Harry reported it on the GCOM thead. "They are in heaven"
"Many of the Afrezza patients are CGM users and they're Twitter fanatics. They take pictures of their CGM lines because they're flat, because Afrezza works so quickly that they no longer eat a meal and have this big spike in glucose that goes on for a while before the insulin finally kicks in and then takes them way down because the tail lasts so long. They're in heaven."
Buyers are here. I wish the sellers would dry up.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 15, 2015 11:00:19 GMT -5
Buyers are here. I wish the sellers would dry up. That would include short sellers too. .what would happen when short sellers stop selling short? liquidity dries up..?
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