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Post by _neil on Jun 20, 2015 12:37:46 GMT -5
Ugh.. baba.. it was a simple matter of sample size. Yes, 14/15 having positive results is encouraging. The sample size however when the TAM is in the millions is insignificant. The reason I need to be sure helps me decide whether I spend my dry powder or continue holding. I neither can nor need to prove my long/short position without violating my privacy and it's tedious that you raise it every single time I come here looking for clarification. Since when is not having a rock solid faith in the stock a concrete evidence of a short position? I hope you'll at least concede there is a wide enough spectrum between 'this stock is doomed' and 'this is the next TSLA'. Your post can stand on its own without that silly insinuation. Okay, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for now, not that anyone gives a hoot what I think, one way or the other. But, if what you said about buying the stock right after approval and being stuck with an average price of $7.30 is accurate, well, perhaps you're really "bitterneil." And I can understand that, I've been there many times, but it doesn't really get one anywhere to be bitter. Did you buy more after approval because of all the celebrating on this board? If so, well, I can understand that, too, and a little bitterness against overly gleeful, giddy and optimistic folk can be tolerated, even indicated, at such moments, but you need to get over it, and change your handle like Lynn suggested - "poorneil" is not what you want to go through message board life with! Heck, if you liked it at $7.30, you should have loved it under $4! Yeah, I know, you were too poor at that point. Maybe before too long, you'll be a winner at $7.30! Nope.. I am not bitter(I tell myself).. just skeptical and a little trigger shy. I did love it under 4 and that's when I got in and out of the warrant purchase. And nope, I don't blame the board at all for my mistimed purchases. I didn't know of this board's existence until late last year. I am seriously considering the change of handle though. What's the point of being in a community if I cannot learn? richneil sounds vulgar and it's inaccurate. I'll change it to something more positive on the next uptick.
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Post by robsacher on Jun 20, 2015 22:44:14 GMT -5
Dudley,
I completely agree with you in regard to the biological statistical principal in play here and the certainty being demonstrated by the early adopters. I just completed an article that alludes to this point, in part, and I firmly believe that when Sanofi's DTC kicks in and we get, not dozens, but hundreds of people reporting their A1C results by the end of the year, we will finally see the tipping point when shorts throw in their cards and give up their positions. My gut feeling is that this will happen sometime in the first half of 2016 but the possibility of this happening this December cannot be ruled out.
We are rapidly approaching reckoning day.
The only uncertainty that can still possibly be in play is a chaos factor that could come into effect at some point beyond the five months of Afrezza use that has already been completed, something that could happen in months six, or seven, etc.. But, barring that unforeseen possibility, Afrezza really looks like it is going to be a smashing success.
And, I absolutely believe that now is the time to be adding shares in any way possible. January 2017 LEAPS could be great.
An investor with willingness to accept the risk factor included in the possibility of a breakdown within the next six months as compared to the potentiality of success within that same time period should know that at this point in the game the odds are very much on the side of the investor willing to assume that risk. And, the return will be enormous.
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Post by mnholdem on Jun 21, 2015 12:29:36 GMT -5
It shouldn't be much longer for 2018 LEAPS to become available, IMO.
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Post by liane on Jun 21, 2015 12:56:29 GMT -5
It shouldn't be much longer for 2018 LEAPS to become available, IMO. Monday Oct 12.
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Post by dudley on Jun 21, 2015 13:02:02 GMT -5
Dudley, I completely agree with you in regard to the biological statistical principal in play here and the certainty being demonstrated by the early adopters. I just completed an article that alludes to this point, in part, and I firmly believe that when Sanofi's DTC kicks in and we get, not dozens, but hundreds of people reporting their A1C results by the end of the year, we will finally see the tipping point when shorts throw in their cards and give up their positions. My gut feeling is that this will happen sometime in the first half of 2016 but the possibility of this happening this December cannot be ruled out. We are rapidly approaching reckoning day. The only uncertainty that can still possibly be in play is a chaos factor that could come into effect at some point beyond the five months of Afrezza use that has already been completed, something that could happen in months six, or seven, etc.. But, barring that unforeseen possibility, Afrezza really looks like it is going to be a smashing success. And, I absolutely believe that now is the time to be adding shares in any way possible. January 2017 LEAPS could be great. An investor with willingness to accept the risk factor included in the possibility of a breakdown within the next six months as compared to the potentiality of success within that same time period should know that at this point in the game the odds are very much on the side of the investor willing to assume that risk. And, the return will be enormous. Thanks Robert for the SA article. Nicely done and very refreshing to see amidst a sea of "misdirection" stuff that seems to dominate. Curious what 'chaos' factor you may see. I've been re-reading a lot of stuff and they have done massive amounts of safety testing, as well as thousands and thousands of patient experiences logged. The product certainly appears to be completely safe. Granted some coughing issues have turned off a small number of patients - that was expected. If one accepts the premise that the superior PK will be replicated (Al does and has explained it well numerous times) in the majority of patients - that fact alone in addition to the greatly increased simplicity of use and quality of life would seem to lead to an inevitable significant market share capture. To me the only possible chaos factors are a sudden manifestation of lung issues (which, again speaking statistically, seems extremely unlikely given the huge amount of testing and actual experience seen with ZERO issues) OR the sudden appearance of a serious competitive threat, which also seems unlikely given the time and expense to bring something to market and the patent protection in place. Folks should read this article. Huge amount of information in there straight from Al - about the product, the history, and SNY commitment (I LOVE this : " Sanofi had already done a great deal of work preparing for the launch -- they started even before we had signed the agreement. They have set up an extensive team for the commercialization and that team is hard at work in planning the launch.
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Post by patryn on Jun 22, 2015 12:12:13 GMT -5
Not that I don't hope that your claims are proven true dudley, but I have to say that if you want the data to be accepted scientifically you have to apply scientific principles to it. For a population of 2 million diabetics that we are targeting, you would need to have a sample size of 385 people to have a 5% margin of error and a 95% confidence level. (used a sample size calculator here for convenience www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html but happy to go through the statistics with you if you want). With only 20 people in the trial group my margin of error would be 21.91% which is far too high to make any assumptions of mathematical certainty. On top of that, this group of 20 people is not random! They are a self selected, highly motivated, and highly informed group of people who want to succeed. That gives us an even higher margin for error. I believe in the science, and I am confident in the marketing and sales game plan for Afrezza. But I am not willing to accept a statistical certainty that this works for everyone. Then again my investment thesis does not need it to work for everyone and indeed if it works for even 25% of the addressable market, I will be quite happy with my investment. On top of that even one person who's quality of life is significantly increased by Afrezza makes this drug a win in my book even if there are no financial benefits. Hi patryn - I accept that premise when one is dealing with "normal' surveys like polling political preferences, product choices etc. But when dealing with biology "preferences" do not come into play. One cannot have a preference or a choice when it comes to how one's system is going to deal with a biological process - it is going to happen no matter what you choose. I would greatly prefer that my fingernails don't grow because I hate having to trim them. What sample size is required to show that fingernail growth is expected in the majority of the population? Insulin works virtually the same way in every single human body on the planet. The clinical trials had a scientifically "satisfactory" result in proving non-inferiority to the RAA's using those very biased protocols. Now that patients are free to vary timing and dosage the results are proving vastly SU-perior to the RAA's. I can't see any logical argument that these results should not be expected by ANY user given the time to get things "dialed in". It can be debated endlessly - but it is extremely telling we are seeing 100% identical results from an ever-growing group of patients. Many thanks as always to Sam Finta for his gigantic contributions toward the Afrezza cause. Hi Dudley, Once more, I would love for you to be correct, and intuitively as well as emotionally, I have this "hunch" that you are correct and that Afrezza will work for the majority of diabetics out there. But even in your fingernail growth study, I would want a sample size of several thousand people to be scientifically confident that all 7 billion people on earth grow fingernails a certain way. Biology is a funny thing and the same drugs that work on one person do not nearly have the same efficacy on another person because of genetics, metabolism, and dosing variances. I could give all sorts of anecdotal data on this about how I respond to pain medication versus how my girlfriend responds, but that's not science, it's just storytelling. Why are some people allergic to certain medications and other people immune? When enough people are sampled, then you can be confident that statistically, x percentage of the population is allergic or x percentage of the population has this medicine work for them. There is no need to debate endlessly on the topic though - that's why we have the scientific method and why we have math. We can prove to a great degree of certainty through these studies that SNY are doing that Afrezza does work and when these studies come out, then I will be convinced - and more importantly, hesitant doctors will be convinced. Until then, remain hopeful, invest in the long term, check your investment thesis regularly, and listen to all sides to be sure you are not overlooking something. Don't let confirmation bias blind you to the fact that anecdotal evidence, no matter how amazing is not scientific proof.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2015 14:00:07 GMT -5
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Post by robsacher on Jun 25, 2015 14:29:40 GMT -5
Dudley,
That's the thing about chaos factors, we just never really know in advance just what they will be if they occur. We all suppose it could be a lung issue, coughing issue, etc.. But, I am more than willing to bet into the likelihood of a winning hand with the cards I now see on the table as opposed to having a wait and see attitude based on the fear of the unknown. There is always unknown. But, the odds of success for this game changing technology have very much swung in the direction of a winning hand. And, the payoff could be huge if the investor is willing to wait for a few years.
By the way, in might take several years, but Afrezza will dominate this market by that time.
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Post by mnkdorbust on Jun 25, 2015 15:11:07 GMT -5
Dudley, That's the thing about chaos factors, we just never really know in advance just what they will be if they occur. We all suppose it could be a lung issue, coughing issue, etc.. But, I am more than willing to bet into the likelihood of a winning hand with the cards I now see on the table as opposed to having a wait and see attitude based on the fear of the unknown. There is always unknown. But, the odds of success for this game changing technology have very much swung in the direction of a winning hand. And, the payoff could be huge if the investor is willing to wait for a few years. By the way, in might take several years, but Afrezza will dominate this market by that time. And as far as i'm concerned you never fold a winning hand regardless of the BS at the table.
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