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Post by LongMNKD on Sept 6, 2015 12:57:06 GMT -5
Exubera did not do this...
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Sept 6, 2015 13:06:22 GMT -5
Can someone please post an updated graph showing exubra scripts vs. afrezza scripts. I believe now the graph will show that afrezza is on its way up (and no chance would be dropped by Sanofi) while exubera was doomed. At the end of the day we know why Exubera failed. It had no clinical benefit vs injectable RAAs, and payers were not willing to cover a higher priced product that did not change clinical outcomes. Sanofi was well aware of this history when they entered into the marketing agreement. They are not inexperienced nor naive organization. They are a market leader in diabetes. Not withstanding the conspiracy theories, the evidence that Afrezza is not Exubera is in Sanofi backing it with their effort, money and reputation. Script data is a trailing indicator. No one that is invested in MNKD is doing so based on that data. We are invested in MNKD because we believe it is a game changing product. Doctors and then payers will be convinced of this and Exubera will become an asterisk in the history of inhalable insulin.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Sept 6, 2015 15:09:49 GMT -5
Exubera did not do this... To me, this chart explains ever so simply why Afrezza is a game changer. Afrezza mimics the body's timing of insulin production. Game over.
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Post by bioexec25 on Sept 6, 2015 15:26:40 GMT -5
Yes game changer albeit only a portion of the potential market. But strategically they will show what is possible beyond the limited ring fenced trials and label.
Not game over until all the dots are connected across a huge variation of time and disease state. The market is much larger than is currently being discussed. JMO
I know this has been discussed a lot on other posts.
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Post by LongMNKD on Sept 6, 2015 16:43:00 GMT -5
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Post by od on Sept 6, 2015 17:42:56 GMT -5
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Post by peppy on Sept 6, 2015 19:05:20 GMT -5
TI Inhalation Powder particles are inhaled into the lungs, where they dissolve immediately. The low bulk density, uniform particle size, and tight particle size distribution centered around 2 microns provide excellent aerodynamic properties that facilitate uniform distribution to the deep lung following inhalation.
Developing Exubera (recombinant human insulin with particle diameters between 1 and 5 mm) was a massive technical achievement, involving the stabilization of the insulin molecule to make it bioavailable in the dry powder form.
================================================================================================================= approved in January 2006, there were high expectations: analysts estimated annual sales to be from $1 billion to $4 billion, and Nektar envisioned years of royalties. But the product had sales of just $12 million for the first 9 months of 2007,
=========================================================================================================== Despite heavy promotion by Pfizer, Exubera captured less than one percent of the insulin market in the first nine months of 2007, generating a puny $12 million in sales. Pfizer wrote off $2.8 billion, including $661 million in Exubera inventory
insulinnation.com/treatment2/inhalable-insulin-a-breathtaking-development/ ================================================================================================================= Attachment Deleted
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Post by jonesq on Sept 6, 2015 21:51:49 GMT -5
Beating a dead horse, can you buy all the ingredients for a steak dinner, a potato and a salad/ cook it, package it and deliver it to me for my convenience? Agreed, the people on this board are... not tolerant enough. LOL, OK point well taken. I've posted questions on tech support blogs and I've been amazed at the lengths some people may go to help a stranger. So I learned how to make a graph in Excel and here it is: (exubera in blue, afrezza in orange, data is total prescriptions): Attachment DeletedThis is not what I expected (and I have to be careful what I say here lest I be accused again of being a short in disguise). However, I note that the data available for Exubera goes up until 1/12/2007 and apparently Exubera was pulled in October of 2007. So there is nine months of data missing. Does anyone know where to find it? So basically Exubera data goes until week 29 while we are in week 32 of Symphony data. My original thesis was that we'd now (week 32) be in the downfall territory of Exubera (and we might be if we had the missing Exubera data). Since I am now honing my graphing skills, I added two more weeks of script growth equal to the last Symphony count (+103), and added a polynomial trendline: Thus, if the trend continues (again, to be conservative I assumed the next two weeks' growth are 103 each which isn't the exponential growth we are hoping for) the trendline (polynomial order 3) is looking good. From all this, I can draw the following conclusions: 1) the graph of Exubera looked good initially, but something caused it to go south. Most likely it was bad publicity from all of its negative aspects that people have mentioned in this thread. 2) if there is no similar "bad publicity event" with Afrezza (and so far there hasn't been any nor can I think of one), then in the near future (assuming the next few weeks of script numbers are good, which is still a big assumption) the data is there that this is no exubera. The shorts who have held onto this analogy will probably try to start getting out, putting upward price pressure on the stock. The shorts can manipulate the stock, but not the script numbers. Thus, I predict things will get interesting in the next month.
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Post by BD on Sept 6, 2015 22:35:47 GMT -5
I've posted questions on tech support blogs and I've been amazed at the lengths some people may go to help a stranger. I don't think there are too many tech support boards where some posters have a financial interest in undermining the truth. But that is the fun landscape we inhabit here in the wonderful world of investment message boards. You seem to have the requisite thick skin to get along around here Thanks for your efforts on the graphs and accompanying analysis; more grist for the mill.
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Post by compound26 on Sept 6, 2015 22:56:02 GMT -5
Not sure whether the following links have been posted somewhere in this board. I guess they probably have been. If that's the case, apologize for the repetition. Some tidbit of historical information related to Exubera for your consideration (note that the information from different sources may conflict with each other; but it is what it is): A. User Base 1. By the end of first quarter of 2007 [note Exubera was soft-launched in June 2006; so this was at around 9 months from launch], it was reported that the then current users of Exhubera were 3,000 to 4,000. [Based on last week's refill script of around 300, it appears the current user base for Afrezza (6 month from the soft launch) is probably around 3,000.]SCRIPT OF THE NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS FINANCIAL RESULTS CONFERENCE CALL (1st quarter 2007)2. By May of 2007 [this was at around 11-12 months from launch], it was reported that the then current users of Exhubera were 5,000. Exubera’s LaunchHAMBRECHT ANALYST TEARS INTO NEKTAR OVER EXUBERA; IS 'ASTONISHED' AT PFIZER'S LACK OF ADVERTISING
B. IMS Tracking3. Nektar Therapeutics management thought IMS script tracking of the actual scripts numbers was " fairly accurately". SCRIPT OF THE NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS FINANCIAL RESULTS CONFERENCE CALL (1st quarter 2007)C. Retention Rate 4. It was estimated that the patient retention rate was around 35%. A majority of patients tried Exubera and quit using it.
Exubera’s LaunchI recall someone in this board estimated the retention rate for Afrezza to be around 70%. D. Sales5. It was reported the Exubera sales in Feb. 2007 was less than $1 million.Last Breath for Exubera?6. It appears Exubera sales in the second quarter of 2007 was $4 million.[The numbers in items 5 and 6 above seem to be generally consistent with the New York Time article's claim that in the first 9 months of 2007, the sales of Exubera was $12 million.
Since none of these sources further stated that the numbers referred to were for US only, these sales numbers appear to global sales of Exubera. The US sales should then be smaller.] Exubera Spirals Toward the Drainpipe
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Post by gomnkd on Sept 7, 2015 10:35:11 GMT -5
The comparison is relevant to an extent. Both are prandial inhaled insulin.
In following text + means Afrezza under performance is understandable, - negative means is not understandable ie Afrezza should have shown more sales.
1) In last 7-8 years, diabetic population has grown maybe by 50% (-) 2) Sanofi soft launch, little or no DTC, targeting only endos (+) 3) Several thousands of happy Exubera patients (one such example is Brian Sharp) haven't bought into Afrezza (-) 4) Pfizer never had a presence in diabetes market, their reps didn't have rapport and were new (-) 5) Pfizer poisoned the inhaled insulin well with their cancer scare (+) 6) Afrezza is more convenient, discreet, ez to use & train, no cleaning (-) 7) Pfizer had a sense of urgency, gave a big bang effort (+) 8) Docs more cautious now given Pfizer pull out (+) 9) Insurance co's making things very difficult (+) 10) Endos hard pressed for time, don't want to bother with prior auth, training (+)
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Post by compound26 on Sept 7, 2015 12:02:00 GMT -5
Not sure whether the following links have been posted somewhere in this board. I guess they probably have been. If that's the case, apologize for the repetition. Some tidbit of historical information related to Exubera for your consideration (note that the information from different sources may conflict with each other; but it is what it is): A. User Base 1. By the end of first quarter of 2007 [note Exubera was soft-launched in June 2006; so this was at around 9 months from launch], it was reported that the then current users of Exhubera were 3,000 to 4,000. [Based on last week's refill script of around 300, it appears the current user base for Afrezza (6 month from the soft launch) is probably around 3,000.]SCRIPT OF THE NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS FINANCIAL RESULTS CONFERENCE CALL (1st quarter 2007)2. By May of 2007 [this was at around 11-12 months from launch], it was reported that the then current users of Exhubera were 5,000. Exubera’s LaunchHAMBRECHT ANALYST TEARS INTO NEKTAR OVER EXUBERA; IS 'ASTONISHED' AT PFIZER'S LACK OF ADVERTISING
B. IMS Tracking3. Nektar Therapeutics management thought IMS script tracking of the actual scripts numbers was " fairly accurately". SCRIPT OF THE NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS FINANCIAL RESULTS CONFERENCE CALL (1st quarter 2007)C. Retention Rate 4. It was estimated that the patient retention rate was around 35%. A majority of patients tried Exubera and quit using it.
Exubera’s LaunchI recall someone in this board estimated the retention rate for Afrezza to be around 70%. D. Sales5. It was reported the Exubera sales in Feb. 2007 was less than $1 million.Last Breath for Exubera?6. It appears Exubera sales in the second quarter of 2007 was $4 million.[The numbers in items 5 and 6 above seem to be generally consistent with the New York Time article's claim that in the first 9 months of 2007, the sales of Exubera was $12 million.
Since none of these sources further stated that the numbers referred to were for US only, these sales numbers appear to global sales of Exubera. The US sales should then be smaller.] Exubera Spirals Toward the Drainpipe
Based on the above, here are a few observations of mine for your consideration: First, Afrezza has a far higher retention rate than Exubera. This is in turn confirms the social media message that patients are generally very satisfied with Afrezza. This also proves that it is a good marketing decision by Sanofi and Mannkind to distribute large sums of samples. Once patients try the samples, they will love the product. Additionally, the retention rate will be even higher as the insurance coverage improves over time. Second, because of the high retention rate of Afrezza, even though the script uptick is slower than Exubera during the first 6 months of launch, Afrezza still outperforms Exubera in terms of user base growth at this point of time (6 months after launch). This is a slap in the face of those naysayers who kept saying, misleadingly, that the current Afrezza scripts are less than half of those Exubera. Better products win the battle in the end. If you have a winning product, your user base will keep grow even though you only add a small number of users each week/month. If you have a losing product, you have to keep adding new users to counterbalance the quitting users. In other words, the retention rate is much more important to the long term success of a product as compared to many other factors, say script growth week to week. Naysayers either do not see this (self-evident truth) or they are (more likely) afraid to admit this. Third, as I observed in another post, even though the script uptick is slower than Exubera during the first 6 months of launch, current weekly sale of Afrezza has already caught up and is outpacing Exubera sales (averaged into weekly sales) when it was discontinued. Per this New York Times article, Exubera’s sales were only $12 million during the first nine months of 2007). And per the above-referred articles, before discontinuation, Exubera’s sales were around $4 million per quarter. Not sure whether the article was referring to worldwide sales or US sales only. But even assuming the article was referring to US sales only, the current weekly sale of Afrezza has caught up and is outpacing Exubera sales (averaged into weekly sales). And based on this article, it appears Exubera’s 12 million sales during the first nine months of 2007 and $4 million sales per quarter were acutally more likely to be worldwide sale. The US sales should then be smaller and therefore less than $4 million per quarter and $16 million per year. At this week's pace, Afrezza will sell $16.3 million in 12 months and $12.2 million in 9 months. I am not saying these are great numbers, but this is another slap in the face of those naysayers who kept saying, misleadingly, that the current Afrezza scripts are less than half of those Exubera. Sales numbers speak and in the long run it is sales that count. And in terms of sales, unless the New York Times article is factually incorrect in terms of Exubera sales in 2007, Aferzza is already outpacing Exubera in weekly sales. (If the scripts numbers and sales numbers of Afrezza and Exubera we have heard so far are correct, it appears script for script, Aferzza has a much higher sales amount per script than that of Exebera.) To summary Items 1-3 above, it appears the following will be the formula for success for Afrezza: Better Product leads to Better Retention Rate leads to Larger User Base leads to Higher Sales Fourth, even though the IMS and Symphony data have various shortcomings, at the end of the day, they are probably pretty accurate. In the last two quarters, Symphony’s reported sales numbers for Afrezza have proved to be pretty close to what Sanofi has reported. Adding Nektar Therapeutics management’s above comment that they thought IMS script tracking of the actual scripts numbers to be "fairly accurately", it appears the IMS and Symphony's reported data are pretty close to the actual sales data. Additionally, based on the last two quarters' data, Symphony's data for Afrezza appear to be more accurate than that of IMS.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Sept 7, 2015 12:23:49 GMT -5
Can someone please post an updated graph showing exubra scripts vs. afrezza scripts. I believe now the graph will show that afrezza is on its way up (and no chance would be dropped by Sanofi) while exubera was doomed. For a topic no one wanted to talk about, great thread.
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Post by spiro on Sept 7, 2015 12:38:15 GMT -5
Spiro thinks this is why the retention rate is high for Afrezza users. Check out Spiro's last 12 days on Afrezza. Ok, Spiro didn't eat any pancakes and syrup during this period.
97 fasting 139 89 82 92 122 119 116 97 fasting 118 102 123 88 100 fasting 120 135 97 131 87 96 fasting 99 147 135 95 94 fasting 97 100 109 82 100 fasting 120 135 97 131 85 96 fasting 99 147 133 95 97 97 100 109 82 88 100 fasting 120 130 87 131 85 96 fasting 99 147 133 95 94 fasting 97 100 109 103 fasting 83 92 90 fasting 104 90 just before lunch today
Spiro here, a diabetic would have to be nuts to stop using Afrezza.
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Post by peppy on Sept 8, 2015 5:21:01 GMT -5
Spiro thinks this is why the retention rate is high for Afrezza users. Check out Spiro's last 12 days on Afrezza. Ok, Spiro didn't eat any pancakes and syrup during this period. 97 fasting 139 89 82 92 122 119 116 97 fasting 118 102 123 88 100 fasting 120 135 97 131 87 96 fasting 99 147 135 95 94 fasting 97 100 109 82 100 fasting 120 135 97 131 85 96 fasting 99 147 133 95 97 97 100 109 82 88 100 fasting 120 130 87 131 85 96 fasting 99 147 133 95 94 fasting 97 100 109 103 fasting 83 92 90 fasting 104 90 just before lunch today Spiro here, a diabetic would have to be nuts to stop using Afrezza. Spiro, Thank you for posting. When I saw you are also an athlete, the words, "Spiro my hero." ran through the cerebral cortex. Thank you for telling it like it is. Looking good. Feeling good. Having fun. Attachment Deleted
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