|
|
Post by newmnkdinvestor on Oct 8, 2015 13:00:01 GMT -5
I thought he sounded nervous also and was maybe looking through his presentation to see what he could skip. I feel like if you do not know about Afrezza that presentation would have left you not remembering it or understanding it. I am not blaming him as he was short for time. What could he have done walked away and did nothing at all? Can you imagine the headlines? However for all of you that defend this management team a great CFO would have been able to handle this better. Its a shitty position to be in but someone could have spun it better. Those damn shorts must have sabotaged the conference. Jason Karp Wall Street sent a virus for you conspiracy theorists.... Things that stuck out to me is that they are very happily partnered with SNY. No improvement on the label coming any time soon but they are working on it. So does that mean the recent clamp study has no baring on label improvement it was in fact apart of FDA approval? The note, man, under tone of intensity this is public speaking 101. There was no positivity in his voice. I walk away from this that he is probably pretty stressed by the whole process. Stressed by sales, investors and thats gotta suck. I walk away from this that the only thing that will keep this stock from going down are sales. The only thing that will move this stock up are sales. The only thing that will keep this company in business are sales and they are fortifying their position to bunker down preparing for things to get rough. YES, you got it. Phew.....somebody gets it. Last summer when the FDA approved afrezza it was about sales. It's always been about afrezza sales - always. Hopefully I won't get "schooled" nearly as agressively as in the past for saying it  Sales = cash = sales. Even matt saying today that he's not worried about cash - B....S...... companies live and die by cash flow. Don't have it, the company ceases to exist. What matt really meant is that he has enough lines of credit to continue operations. To a stickler like me, that's a major difference. Cash is not debt......debt is debt. Free cash flow is something totally different. Matt better be worried about cash because they don't have any. What they do have is the ability to continue racking up more and more debt but, as the recent convertible demonstrated - the tap isn't going to flow forever. But hey.....one thing at a time I am a salesman and agree with you a 100%. Once the product is created without sales there is no business. Without sales there is no income. Its not really tricky. There is clearly a line drawn on the board. I have been criticized before it doesn't bother me. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyz on Oct 8, 2015 13:04:09 GMT -5
Just FYI - The next earnings release date is 11/2. That should be when the material financial information will be clarified and why Matt couldn't answer some specific questions.
|
|
|
|
Post by inittowinit on Oct 8, 2015 13:05:34 GMT -5
Not our finest hour. Matt did what he could, but was cleary rattled from the technical difficulties. As dissapointed as I am with this conference, I'm even more dissapointed with the in-fighting on this board...we all have skin in this game.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2015 13:21:28 GMT -5
Not our finest hour. Matt did what he could, but was cleary rattled from the technical difficulties. As dissapointed as I am with this conference, I'm even more dissapointed with the in-fighting on this board...we all have skin in this game. Not sure I would describe it as infighting. Legitimate debate for which the stress is amplified because none of us has complete information. Not knowing = stress and MNKD seems to keep information flow to a minimum which truth be told, could work in our favor but like everything else, we are uncertain about this as well. Some have commented about sales doubling each quarter. If that continues, we have 2015Q1 $2 mm Q2 $4 mm Q3 $8 mm Q4 $16 mm '15 Total $30 mm2016Q1 $32 mm Q2 $64 mm Q3 $128 mm Q4 $256 mm '16 Total $480 mm
Previous posts talked about the importance of sales. Amen to that. No sale, no company. SNY needs to start to push a lot harder. If true that they have 200 reps dedicated to Afrezza, they can do better than what we are seeing. Significant downsizing among pharma sales forces the last decade so salaries have had downward pressure but decent reps cannot be hired for bargain basement prices. Lets say Sanofi pays an average base of $72k. I doubt Afrezza reps for Sanofi are getting bonus but lets say benefits are worth another 20% so actual cost per year for a rep in terms of salary + benefits = $86,400. Lets add in the cost of the company car, gas, insurance & maintenance for another $600 / month and round it to $87,000. Add in another $3,000 annually for training (likely a bit more but lets keep the numbers easy to follow). At $90,000 per rep x 200 reps, you have $18 mm per year in payroll alone not including corporate staff who work on Afrezza (marketing, marketing ops, sales ops, allocated overhead, ad agency, etc). At this point, my dartboard guess is $28 mm - $30 mm per year. We don't know Sanofi's strategic plan for the entire corporation nor do we know the strategic plan for their diabetes unit. The Google partnership to me means they are focused and committed to diabetes, big data and patient outcomes. Logic would dictate that Afrezza is an integral part of the strategy. My biggest concern is they lose interest and faith in Afrezza's commercial viability. Sanofi is good at sales, marketing and working with third party payors. They are not however, top dog. |
|
|
|
Post by harrys on Oct 8, 2015 13:25:22 GMT -5
Not our finest hour. Matt did what he could, but was cleary rattled from the technical difficulties. As dissapointed as I am with this conference, I'm even more dissapointed with the in-fighting on this board...we all have skin in this game. Not sure I would describe it as infighting. Legitimate debate for which the stress is amplified because none of us has complete information. Not knowing = stress and MNKD seems to keep information flow to a minimum which truth be told, could work in our favor but like everything else, we are uncertain about this as well. Some have commented about sales doubling each quarter. If that continues, we have 2015Q1 $2 mm Q2 $4 mm Q3 $8 mm Q4 $16 mm '15 Total $30 mm2016Q1 $32 mm Q2 $64 mm Q3 $128 mm Q4 $256 mm '16 Total $480 mm
Previous posts talked about the importance of sales. Amen to that. No sale, no company. SNY needs to start to push a lot harder. If true that they have 200 reps dedicated to Afrezza, they can do better than what we are seeing. Significant downsizing among pharma sales forces the last decade so salaries have had downward pressure but decent reps cannot be hired for bargain basement prices. Lets say Sanofi pays an average base of $72k. I doubt Afrezza reps for Sanofi are getting bonus but lets say benefits are worth another 20% so actual cost per year for a rep in terms of salary + benefits = $86,400. Lets add in the cost of the company car, gas, insurance & maintenance for another $600 / month and round it to $87,000. Add in another $3,000 annually for training (likely a bit more but lets keep the numbers easy to follow). At $90,000 per rep x 200 reps, you have $18 mm per year in payroll alone not including corporate staff who work on Afrezza (marketing, marketing ops, sales ops, allocated overhead, ad agency, etc). At this point, my dartboard guess is $28 mm - $30 mm per year. We don't know Sanofi's strategic plan for the entire corporation nor do we know the strategic plan for their diabetes unit. The Google partnership to me means they are focused and committed to diabetes, big data and patient outcomes. Logic would dictate that Afrezza is an integral part of the strategy. My biggest concern is they lose interest and faith in Afrezza's commercial viability. Sanofi is good at sales, marketing and working with third party payors. They are not however, top dog. Thank you for bringing an unbiased objective look at things. Please keep posting, we need less fanaticism and more fact around here. |
|
|
|
Post by mrv on Oct 8, 2015 13:31:42 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I was unable to listen to the presentation, and I am looking forward to reading the transfcript.
Having read all the comments made so far, it seems that the majority of the posters think that Matt did not do a good presentation because of the time limitation. In the past, when Matt didn't have time limitations, the majority of the posters thought that Matt did not do a good presentation either.
Does MNKD need to hire a professional presenter to make all of us longs happy? Just a thought.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris-C on Oct 8, 2015 13:36:12 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I was in a dental chair and was not able to follow the presentation live. The accounts given here are appreciated. I too wonder why it seemed like a good idea to present, given the pending quarterly conference call. Perhaps the company was responding to the chorus of criticism about silence. I suspect that Matt is feeling the pressure that goes with having to deal with impatient investors.
But the criticism about company silence is really code for "there is an absence of news that pushes the stock price up." Perhaps, because of that "absence of good news", the prevailing tone on this board seems have become dominated by what some would call "soft bashing".
Given this current prevailing sentiment, it would be truly remarkable if the posts about the presentation were positive; because at this point, if Matt had showed up with the Pope, Dalai Lama and the Prime Minister of Israel singing Mannkind's praises, there would still be people on the board bashing him because Putin and Ali Khamenei of Iran were not present.
Yes, headwinds for the launch have been stronger than expected. But objectively, progress is being made steadily, and the share price has been beaten well below what might be reasonable (if indeed, there is any reason remaining on Wall Street). We can identify many biotechs that have larger market caps without approved drugs and partnerships or huge market need/potential. In my mind, as one person mentioned earlier in this thread, Mannkind's biggest enemy at the moment is perhaps one of their own partial creation. They failed to tamp down expectations for sales during the launch in a way that would counter the hype being rolled out by eager investors.
At this point, long investors have to trust the science, Sanofi's marketing experience, and the likelihood that providers and users will grow based on results. I believe they will.
GLTAL
Chris C
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2015 13:43:22 GMT -5
Unfortunately, I was unable to listen to the presentation, and I am looking forward to reading the transfcript. Having read all the comments made so far, it seems that the majority of the posters think that Matt did not do a good presentation because of the time limitation. In the past, when Matt didn't have time limitations, the majority of the posters thought that Matt did not do a good presentation either. Does MNKD need to hire a professional presenter to make all of us longs happy? Just a thought. If the problem was how the info was presented I would say yes, definitely, get professional help in getting that positive message out there. But the issue is that matt has nothing seriously positive to say yet when it comes to the sales/income side of this equation. Yes, the product details are amazing but they are hamstrung by the label (as well all know and matt pointed out today, again). So no need to help since the company can't go off label. As far as the business side of the equation, there is absolutely nothing positive to say until sales actually kick in. IF matt had anything positive to say about the business side of things you can bet he'd be screaming it from the top of his lungs. When MNKD got fda approval and signed a deal with SNY they became a manufacturing company. IF cash flow doesn't materialize over the coming quarters, they'll be downsizing their "fully staffed" technosphere group as well. That's how this works........However, if sales pick up and MNKD is able to move the contract money down to the bottom line........woohoo for a few more quarters!! |
|
|
|
Post by yossarian on Oct 8, 2015 14:15:37 GMT -5
Very little was said except MNKD has high hopes and we need to wait for the report on quarterly earnings for financial questions to be answered. He did say about half the convertible debt was paid in cash. Little unsettling to hear him say he had heard rumors of a TV commercial being produced. I would have thought he should know. Hadn't seen the ad in Cooking Light ad he mentioned so that was nice to know He did allude at one point that other Sanoif insulins could be used in Technosphere platform, but answer seemed to indicate that Sanofi had expressed an interest.. Did say the rumors of MNKD's financial demise to quote Mark Twain were much exaggerated. All in all, don't expect any quick jump in MNKD's stock price unless AFREZZA sales jump. We'll see what tomorrow, script count day, brings. Link to presentation - investors.mannkindcorp.com/events.cfm?EventType=Webcast |
|
|
|
Post by kball on Oct 8, 2015 14:36:19 GMT -5
Didn't listen, so i appreciate peoples opinions of the presentation from this board.
But my g-d, If matt only had about 15 minutes instead of 30, why didn't he open with "Instead of half an hour, I only have about 15 minutes... which most of you are aware is also the time it takes for Afrezza to start working, faster than all other available mealtime insulins".
|
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Oct 8, 2015 14:41:44 GMT -5
Didn't listen, so i appreciate peoples opinions of the presentation from this board. But my g-d, If matt only had about 15 minutes instead of 30, why didn't he open with "Instead of half an hour, I only have about 15 minutes... which most of you are aware is also the time it takes for Afrezza to start working, faster than all other available mealtime insulins".Now that you said it, next time Matt will open his presentation like this: "I only have about 30 minutes...while it is not a lot time... most of you are aware it takes only about half that time for Afrezza to start working, faster than all other available mealtime insulins".  |
|
|
|
Post by mssciguy on Oct 8, 2015 14:50:32 GMT -5
Didn't listen, so i appreciate peoples opinions of the presentation from this board. But my g-d, If matt only had about 15 minutes instead of 30, why didn't he open with "Instead of half an hour, I only have about 15 minutes... which most of you are aware is also the time it takes for Afrezza to start working, faster than all other available mealtime insulins".Now that you said it, next time Matt will open his presentation like this: "I only have about 30 minutes...while it is not a lot time... most of you are aware it takes only about half that time for Afrezza to start working, faster than all other available mealtime insulins". That's a great idea, someone should tell him. great illustration. Maybe have a Powerpoint slide he could go back to at 5-minute intervals showing clamp study results. |
|
|
|
Post by biotec on Oct 8, 2015 15:20:49 GMT -5
Just FYI - The next earnings release date is 11/2. That should be when the material financial information will be clarified and why Matt couldn't answer some specific questions. That's just a tentative date, It could be a week or so later. I'm looking forward to see the script numbers tomorrow! Please let them be good! We need some good news every once and awhile! |
|
|
|
Post by blu2waz on Oct 8, 2015 17:14:27 GMT -5
It's my understanding that the script #s are incomplete, missing information from chains like CVS and Walgreen's, and therefore are unreliable.
If this is true the scripts can be used to determine trends, not financial results.
The quarterly report on 11/2 will likely answer some questions.
2.3 million shares were traded after hours today at the closing price... Someone is covering.
btw newbie
|
|
|
|
Post by rvc on Oct 8, 2015 17:18:58 GMT -5
In a word, Yes
|
|
Sales = cash = sales. Even matt saying today that he's not worried about cash - B....S...... companies live and die by cash flow. Don't have it, the company ceases to exist. What matt really meant is that he has enough lines of credit to continue operations. To a stickler like me, that's a major difference. Cash is not debt......debt is debt. Free cash flow is something totally different. Matt better be worried about cash because they don't have any. What they do have is the ability to continue racking up more and more debt but, as the recent convertible demonstrated - the tap isn't going to flow forever. But hey.....one thing at a time 
