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Post by od on Oct 6, 2015 10:38:22 GMT -5
The reason Afrezza is not being prescribed currently as the first choice in diabetes treatment is because (1) physicians are too busy and lazy to to follow the latest developments and new products and (2) insurance coverage. These issues will be resolved in a year or two. If you are expecting blockbuster status before then I suggest selling and moving on. @kastanes, this is what I was referring to. I thought you were quoting me, and telling me to move on. If not, my bad. First, I do not want this sidebar to spin into the recent too common board craziness/silliness - especially, with two of my saner fellow posters. My question to Kastanes was prompted to a response he made to a cfield23 comment; yes, I assumed he was suggesting cfield23 move-on. Thank you Kastanes for the clarifying answer. |
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Post by harrys on Oct 6, 2015 10:42:55 GMT -5
harrys,
If you consider capturing 10% of the prandial market to be "dead money" then I suggest you go and buy a new calculator. Also, a BP will certainly pay the $$$ for Technosphere when faced with the certainty of what a Technosphere application will do with a generic API that directly competes with the BP's brand in their market space. They would also want to avoid another BP signing a distribution agreement with MannKind and/or providing management the upfront cash needed to develop the API and bring it to market because at that point they would be screwed.
Remember, the API that MannKind is loading into Technosphere particles are already FDA-approved drugs. So is Technosphere itself, as well as the inhalers. The API were specifically selected because they can be expedited through the FDA's drug-approval process and a much lower expense than it took for Afrezza. That equates to less financial risk for the BP/financier considering investing in a partnership with MannKind Corporation. In other words, if MannKind can get the FDA to approve a drug as difficult as insulin, they can certainly succeed with other drugs.
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Incidentally, trenddiver gets to the point of why with many companies' stocks - especially biotech companies - large special interests collaborate with others (including Wall Street pundits) to drive pps into the ground. It makes getting financing more difficult, enabling investment banks to get charge higher interest and less favorable terms on the debt instruments startup companies need to stay afloat. MannKind, in spite of what AF would have you believe, is far from being in dire straits financially.
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Cashing out the settlement was not, as AF claims, the worst case scenario. Excessive stock dilution would have been worse, which was why MannKind set a floor price to prevent it. We also have 9 million borrowed shares being returned by Bank of American and which can be converted into cash (if needed) without further diluting outstanding shares since they are already outstanding shares that have been actively trading for years.
Naturally, those special interests who stand to gain by lower share prices will publish their version of what constitutes "worst case" so read AF, but try not to be fooled by his ilk. They have only the banks' interests at heart, and not the retail/commercial investor. You fail to address or understand the largest risk involved which is time. You also mention "certainty" of what a Technosphere application will do to the competition, there is no "certainty" until material progress with the commercialization of Afrezza buys the time ($$$) to actually develop Technosohere (and no I don't consider the ambiguous statements and clue's Matt gives out to be material progress in its development). 10% market capture would be wonderful but it needs to happen on a much shorter timeline than 3-5+ years. The only reason I would consider selling all or some of my position is if it becomes obvious that the cash situation will require dilutive financing and that is simply a function of time until Afrezza becomes profitable. |
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Post by lakers on Oct 6, 2015 11:24:29 GMT -5
I agree that Time is not on our side. It's like NFL, 30 pts behind with 5 minutes to play although the team has decent offense but porous defense.
At some point Al may throw in the towel by taking Mnkd private or accepting Buy In/Out as Mnkd needs a cash infusion to develop TS pipeline. The Tipping point is near per AF's article. I don't think Al will let Mnkd balance sheet deteriorate further as he will lose negotiation leverage.
The sooner Mnkd hits the cash crunch, the faster Al will act. Al's LBO would trigger bids from Sny who has the first right of refusal per Lic agreement. If Sny passes, other BPs would bid.
Had Sny owned 100% Afrezza, they would have negotiated a bundled deal with PBM to put both A&T on Tier2. Mnkd lost much control of Afrezza as far as news flow, mktg is concerned.
Sny slow launch only works if Mnkd has deep pocket. I am now waiting for something like "Mnkd has retained GS, BofA to explore strategic options ..."
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Post by mnholdem on Oct 6, 2015 11:51:03 GMT -5
It's fair to say that some of you are portraying a gloomier picture than I think is warranted but at least you're presenting it more cordially than over at YMB. That's cool. I just cannot help but recall, when you speak of the "time" we have, that I/we have been hearing about the imminent demise of MannKind Corporation for over a decade now. How many times over 11 years have we heard that this company is on the verge of bankruptcy?
Al taking it private is the latest and greatest rumor-de-jour.
Incidentally, adding to my words is pushing the boundaries of honest rebuttal. I think my original scenario for the point of discussion had the next TS drug being released in about 2 years, by which time I inferred that Afrezza may have captured 10% of the prandial (mealtime) insulin market.
So when harrys replies with "10% market capture would be wonderful but it needs to happen on a much shorter timeline than 3-5+ years" it comes across as a cheap writing device to imply the writer wrote something he didn't. The comment that "Al may throw in the towel by taking MNKD private" illustrates how weak the short argument is becoming. There is no precedence for Al "throwing in the towel" on anything he is determined should succeed. In fact, his history shows just the opposite. He would sell the company (at a decent price) before taking it private.
This business of "Al taking MannKind private" seems to be a thinly-veiled attempt to frighten investors. That might work at over at DaZoo, but things are more grounded in DD on this board, IMHO.
You guys are pretty good. Sanofi launched Afrezza and we have just entered the 6-12 month post-launch period, the period of time when major healthcare payers/insurers typically BEGIN their coverage evaluation and determine Tier placement, and you're already suggesting to board members and readers that "the game" has us at 30 points behind with 5 minutes to play? Pulleze...can't you do better than that? Perhaps next you can try suggesting that Al is probably too old and weak to lift a pen and write a check for AMF to extend credit to MannKind.
Too funny.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2015 12:02:35 GMT -5
The reason Afrezza is not being prescribed currently as the first choice in diabetes treatment is because (1) physicians are too busy and lazy to to follow the latest developments and new products and (2) insurance coverage. These issues will be resolved in a year or two. If you are expecting blockbuster status before then I suggest selling and moving on. @kastanes, this is what I was referring to. I thought you were quoting me, and telling me to move on. If not, my bad. You are one of the voices of reason on this board. So, you bad;) |
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Post by als57 on Oct 6, 2015 12:09:54 GMT -5
I believe you are "spot-on", and my previous confidence of Matt having empathy for retail investors is a delusion. I think he is "bailing" the EYES boat trying to keep it afloat, so I am fearful that "hacking Hakan" will be the pitch master - scary but Halloween is around the corner.
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Post by patryn on Oct 6, 2015 12:12:38 GMT -5
You guys are really good. We've launched Afrezza and are only in the 6-12 month post-launch period, when insurers typically BEGIN their coverage evaluation and deciding Tier placement, and you're already to readers that "the game" has us being 30 points behind with 5 minutes to play? Pulleze...can't you do better than that? Perhaps next you can try suggesting that Al is probably too old and weak to lift a pen and write a check for AMF to extend credit to MannKind.
Too funny.
One of the cardinal rules of investing is to never tie more into your investment than you can comfortably stand to lose. From the tone of the posting in the last few months, it has become abundantly clear that some people are either invested too much into MNKD or just do not have very much risk tolerance, or perhaps have more sinister motives as you imply. I think that the story will play out by itself over the next several years for both Afrezza and MNKD, no matter how much we post here and how much we praise or bash the management. I don't look at the stock price day to day anyway, but I did find that I was a lot happier with my investment last week when I didn't read this message board as often as well. I sometimes think that information overload is making us all far too reactive. I am always reminded of my favorite quote from Warren Buffet when I read particularly scathing commentary about the incompetence of the management, the financial weakness of the company, or how we only have 5 minutes left and are down 30 points. "Our favorite holding period is forever." |
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Post by lakers on Oct 6, 2015 12:38:14 GMT -5
I too believe in Afrezza science. I'd love to see Afrezza and TS owned by a Strong Hand to ensure its survival to benefit mankind (1 n).
How will that objective be achieved?
As any great businessman, Al may see a great bargain. Hence, LBO has merit. By extending credit line, he indirectly owns more Mnkd at a bargain price anyway. You'd want him to come straight out with LBO so that you can benefit too.
Nate expected 2K TRx by Jan2016. I'm 45/55 on that. How would KOLs respond if that figure is not met? How will pps react?
By now Sny already knew what it has in Afrezza. A mere 5% BI at a negotiated price would be a great SubQ injection to enhance Afrezza survival and stop short manipulation Why hasn't that happened yet? Is Al in the way ?
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Post by kball on Oct 6, 2015 12:51:58 GMT -5
You guys are really good. We've launched Afrezza and are only in the 6-12 month post-launch period, when insurers typically BEGIN their coverage evaluation and deciding Tier placement, and you're already to readers that "the game" has us being 30 points behind with 5 minutes to play? Pulleze...can't you do better than that? Perhaps next you can try suggesting that Al is probably too old and weak to lift a pen and write a check for AMF to extend credit to MannKind.
Too funny.
-snip-
I am always reminded of my favorite quote from Warren Buffet when I read particularly scathing commentary about the incompetence of the management, the financial weakness of the company, or how we only have 5 minutes left and are down 30 points. "Our favorite holding period is forever." I think my favorite quote of his is at the start of his annual shareholders meeting. Warren into microphone testing the audio--"One million, Two million, Three million" |
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Post by jpg on Oct 6, 2015 19:49:54 GMT -5
I don't look at the stock price day to day anyway, but I did find that I was a lot happier with my investment last week when I didn't read this message board as often as well. I sometimes think that information overload is making us all far too reactive. Agreed. I am coming to the same conclusion. This over analysis (often wild speculation) isn't constructive. I try looking at the share price only at Friday close (hard to do but rewarding) and try not reading the musings of those who seem to be barely holding on (near panic mode might be an appropriate description). Not certain if it's information overload or 'speculation and fear' overload though... Some of the stuff being posted is more and more just silly, illogical and based on nothing. |
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Post by elbuffeto on Oct 6, 2015 20:33:47 GMT -5
I also don't understand when people attack management when I feel they have been very clear with their agenda. If people actually listened to the calls it would be very clear what their plans are. Everything they have said they would do they have done. If you accumulate all the negative news coming in from shorts you will realize one thing. They always attack Afrezza because it is an easy target, but a very important target. Remember, Afrezza is the only inhalable insulin in the market approved by the FDA so naturally it will have many enemies. Specifically big pharma who are currently bound to lose market share.
I correlate this to a new drug dealer who happens to start selling their drug in someone else's territory. All the other drug dealers will go to war with the new drug dealer. Mannkind has a lot of enemies with big pockets and they will spend big $$ to keep Mannkind deflated. Motley fool is obviously in their pockets, Fraudstein is obviously in their pockets, GS and other analysts are obviously in their pockets. If the government actually did their job they would unwind a web of corruption, but we know government is also easily corrupted because when elections roll in big pockets control the show.
One thing you won't find the shorts doing is attacking Technosphere. Why? Because they know once the next drug becomes inhalable that will be the nail in the coffin and this is the reason they are focusing on Afrezza. If Afrezza succeeds, then Technosphere succeeds. So now they concentrate their efforts on Afrezza. This isn't about what is best for diabetics (sadly) it is all about keeping the market share of the big pockets. Al Mann has a good track record and I trust he will do good with a company that is under his name. We all know the truth and that is that Afrezza is changing the lives of many diabetics. Once this continues to trend, we will break free of these shorts who purposely spread lies.
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Post by BD on Oct 6, 2015 20:39:59 GMT -5
Nice first post, elbuffeto. Welcome to the board.
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Post by elbuffeto on Oct 6, 2015 20:56:26 GMT -5
Nice first post, elbuffeto. Welcome to the board. Thanks! I also want to say Matt has been doing a great job. I am sure he would love to spill his beans, but as a business man you can't show all your cards to the competition when the competition is actively looking for anything. |
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Post by od on Oct 6, 2015 21:09:36 GMT -5
I also don't understand when people attack management when I feel they have been very clear with their agenda. If people actually listened to the calls it would be very clear what their plans are. Everything they have said they would do they have done. If you accumulate all the negative news coming in from shorts you will realize one thing. They always attack Afrezza because it is an easy target, but a very important target. Remember, Afrezza is the only inhalable insulin in the market approved by the FDA so naturally it will have many enemies. Specifically big pharma who are currently bound to lose market share. I correlate this to a new drug dealer who happens to start selling their drug in someone else's territory. All the other drug dealers will go to war with the new drug dealer. Mannkind has a lot of enemies with big pockets and they will spend big $$ to keep Mannkind deflated. Motley fool is obviously in their pockets, Fraudstein is obviously in their pockets, GS and other analysts are obviously in their pockets. If the government actually did their job they would unwind a web of corruption, but we know government is also easily corrupted because when elections roll in big pockets control the show. One thing you won't find the shorts doing is attacking Technosphere. Why? Because they know once the next drug becomes inhalable that will be the nail in the coffin and this is the reason they are focusing on Afrezza. If Afrezza succeeds, then Technosphere succeeds. So now they concentrate their efforts on Afrezza. This isn't about what is best for diabetics (sadly) it is all about keeping the market share of the big pockets. Al Mann has a good track record and I trust he will do good with a company that is under his name. We all know the truth and that is that Afrezza is changing the lives of many diabetics. Once this continues to trend, we will break free of these shorts who purposely spread lies. elbuffeto, just so I am clear, your theory is that the pharmaceutical industry has conspired to 'shut-down' Afrezza? |
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Post by harrys on Oct 6, 2015 22:39:07 GMT -5
It's fair to say that some of you are portraying a gloomier picture than I think is warranted but at least you're presenting it more cordially than over at YMB. That's cool. I just cannot help but recall, when you speak of the "time" we have, that I/we have been hearing about the imminent demise of MannKind Corporation for over a decade now. How many times over 11 years have we heard that this company is on the verge of bankruptcy?
Al taking it private is the latest and greatest rumor-de-jour.
Incidentally, adding to my words is pushing the boundaries of honest rebuttal. I think my original scenario for the point of discussion had the next TS drug being released in about 2 years, by which time I inferred that Afrezza may have captured 10% of the prandial (mealtime) insulin market.
So when harrys replies with "10% market capture would be wonderful but it needs to happen on a much shorter timeline than 3-5+ years" it comes across as a cheap writing device to imply the writer wrote something he didn't. The comment that "Al may throw in the towel by taking MNKD private" illustrates how weak the short argument is becoming. There is no precedence for Al "throwing in the towel" on anything he is determined should succeed. In fact, his history shows just the opposite. He would sell the company (at a decent price) before taking it private.
This business of "Al taking MannKind private" seems to be a thinly-veiled attempt to frighten investors. That might work at over at DaZoo, but things are more grounded in DD on this board, IMHO.
You guys are pretty good. Sanofi launched Afrezza and we have just entered the 6-12 month post-launch period, the period of time when major healthcare payers/insurers typically BEGIN their coverage evaluation and determine Tier placement, and you're already suggesting to board members and readers that "the game" has us at 30 points behind with 5 minutes to play? Pulleze...can't you do better than that? Perhaps next you can try suggesting that Al is probably too old and weak to lift a pen and write a check for AMF to extend credit to MannKind.
Too funny.
You'll have to excuse my concept of "time" as I've only owned my first share going on 1.5 years now; I don't make a habit of sitting on dead money for 11yrs, so I don't know what's been said about the "demise of Mannkind for over a decade now" and its of no consequence to my investment. Since Afrezza is only just now available on the open market the clock started ticking recently and "about 2 years" is far to long to sit on dead money as far as I'm concerned. Excuse me for interpreting your ambiguous timeline as "3-5+ yrs", you failed to actually mention a number in any of your responses to my posts, so I was left to interpret based on your belief that time is no issue. So when mnholdem replies with the supposed quote that "Al may throw in the towel by taking MNKD private" it comes across as a cheap writing device to imply the writer wrote something he didn't as no where did I say this... you also seem to want to twist my theory; as I've explained many times Al would take the company private not because he's "throwing in the towel" but to save his own investment and profit off of flipping the company in order to fund his charities in perpetuity. It would be quite the opposite of Al "throwing in the towel", it would be Al flipping the bird to Wall Street/Shareholders and reclaiming what's his. I've also stated that I don't think this is going to happen, but thanks for trying to misrepresent me. Lastly, your paranoia is showing. |
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