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Post by factspls88 on Oct 9, 2015 10:53:33 GMT -5
Incidentally, I told Matt that no one knows about Afrezza despite the DTC. The decreasing scripts this week are another red flag. I would not be happy but could live with it if the product failed due to poor sales but had a fighting chance with good marketing and sales force support. In other words, it failed because the patients said "No" after a fair and accurate opportunity to use it was presented by their doctors. It is failing though because nobody knows about the drug! Here is the link to the tweets you are referring to: Are you Zak? PS - no one named Melissa on linkedin within 100 miles of LaJolla Ca (San Diego) who is currently or formerly with Sanofi. I seriously doubt she works or ever worked for Sanofi or any of the agencies that Sanofi uses for Afrezza. She appears to be based in San Diego and telling everyone what a successful equity trader she is (pumping some company that is 0.03/share). Sanofi is in Bridgewater NJ so their agencies(s) likely have offices in Bridgewater, Parsippany NJ, NYC or perhaps Philadelphia. Most of the major pharma agencies have interactive/digital capabilities in house. The "Lol's" are a dead giveaway to me. I don't believe the Melissa is legit either. |
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Post by ashiwi on Oct 9, 2015 11:14:27 GMT -5
MNKD's hands are tied. SNY has a plan and it's under wraps for the time being. SNY has a conference call NOV 6 where they will shed some light regarding the Afrezza launch. Pascale Witz will head up the launch of SNY's new drugs and it will commence Jan 2016. I would suggest any doubters just google her. Very impressive background. Here's a start : en.sanofi.com/investors/corporate_governance/corporate_management/bio_witz.aspx |
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 9, 2015 11:16:55 GMT -5
It's clear what Melissa is from her tweets.
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Post by ashiwi on Oct 9, 2015 11:17:56 GMT -5
A quote from Pascale Witz
dated August 31,2015
"That is why I have joined Sanofi and am so excited
about the opportunity of transforming the company for the future,” added Witz.
“Together with our new CEO, my colleagues and I are aligned behind a vision of
improving healthcare for people worldwide and driving sustainable growth for
Sanofi.”
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 9, 2015 11:23:26 GMT -5
mattmatt, you wrote:
"Forgive me, but your post is absurd. I don't want to hear from anyone what I should or should not post. I'm not a 7-year-old. I have legitimate concerns, which I had addressed directly to MNKD management and for which I have received what I consider an unsatisfactory response and continue to feel I am not being given enough information to know that my investment is or is not safe. There's nothing more to it than that. I also have done my due diligence and feel very strongly that this drug has the potential to be a blockbuster but without sufficient information that the execution is being performed competently (and I NEVER simply accept that because it's SNY doing the marketing that I should just submit to their whim), none of us has a clue. If you all want to ride your hard-earned money on promises or reputation/past experience, and not hard information, then I believe you to be nothing but reckless with your money. I don't give a damn that what I am saying is or is not fodder for shorts. I am here to satisfy only my investment."
Based on your criteria for riding one's hard-earned money, I would suspect you're about ready to sell. Or are you going to hang in notwithstanding what you say is unsatisfactory info/response, and be "nothing but reckless with your money?" Or are you going to give management a certain amount of time to satisfy your investing criteria? And what made you get in in the first place, as the kind of info we get from MNKD now is nothing new, it's been this way for a long time?
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Post by ashiwi on Oct 9, 2015 11:24:06 GMT -5
This article has been around but worth reading if you doubt SNY's commitment. quarterly.insigniam.com/leadership/how-sanofi-will-roll-out-new-products/Execution Makes or Breaks Product Launch Strategies Sanofi’s Pascale Witz is putting patients at the center of its new-product rollout. Quick hits: The Challenge: Refresh the product line of one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies. The Plan: Pack the product pipeline with a series of new medicines, vaccines and therapeutic solutions. The Execution: Roll out up to 24 new products over the course of five years. The Result: The rollout has only just begun, but the early going is encouraging, with the introduction of the only inhalable insulin product on the U.S. market. |
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 9, 2015 11:25:38 GMT -5
Coco, I just want you to know that Melissa is what I expect someone with a handle of "Cocokitty" to be like. But I guess "Melissa" will do.  |
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Post by patryn on Oct 9, 2015 11:28:10 GMT -5
It's clear what Melissa is from her tweets. I'm reminded of variations of this old joke: A story that has been told of almost every modern celebrity beginning with President Wilson and H. G. Wells: A famous man at a charity banquet asks the beautiful young woman next to him, “Assuming that we gave the money to charity, would you sleep with me for ten thousand dollars?” After some thought she says, “Yes.” “And would you for two dollars?” “Why, what do you think I am!” “We’ve already decided that. Now we’re just haggling about price.” |
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Post by kdaddyfresh2000 on Oct 9, 2015 12:12:16 GMT -5
"K, Kdaddy, here's about as pure and constructive a comment you'll ever get. If you believe Melissa (and why wouldn't you as you referenced her as part of your serious DD) and mrcoleslaw from SA (and why wouldn't you as your referenced him as part of your serious DD); and if you believe there is little or no SNY commitment (as indicated by the gist of your comments), then I highly recommend you dump this stock now. $3 per share is better than $0 per share. And, by keeping your $$$$$ tied up in MNKD, you're missing all the other opportunities that I'm sure you've already identified. Why wouldn't you dump the stock? Based upon your insights and beliefs, there can be no other answer for you.
I'd be highly interested in exactly your reasons for being long in this stock. What positive reasons counter (<= please note, "counter", not just some random positive reasons) your negative views above? And why no mention of those reasons in your analysis? In other words, what exactly is your long thesis? Because if you can describe a long thesis that keeps you in the stock given all the calamities that you describe and imply, then I know my decision on this stock is rock solid. I'm looking forward to you sharing. If you have no cogent reasons to counter the dismal circumstances you describe above, then I guess I should probably re-evaluate my own position. Your earliest comment would be greatly appreciated."
You have to lose the sarcasm. That in itself if not constructive and, while perhaps emotionally satisfying to you and others, does nothing to address the issues I raised. My post was not a comprehensive pro- and con- analysis. It was meant to relate some sobering information to shareholders and seek some factual input, discussion, and counter-arguments. First off, you must acknowledge that I specifically qualified that the posters I referenced may be lying. It is the internet. That does not mean that everyone is posting lies, e.g., kevinmik on YMB got mercilessly bashed and called a liar for recounting his phone conversation with Matt 2 weeks ago. Yesterday, he was vindicated by Matt, down to "I am working out of moving boxes" from Matt verbatim repeated at the conference yesterday that kevinmik mentioned in his post 2 weeks ago.
Simply, I am a long that (1) believes in Al Mann based on his track record in science and business and (2) in the Afrezza product itself from an objective scientific basis, a la CGM readings on Twitter, patient testimony, etc. However, I have concerns about SNY's execution of Afrezza's marketing and sales. If the layoffs, the flat script numbers (we have been hovering at 500 for the last 4 straight months), and the comments by Matt himself don't tell you there are problems with sales and marketing, then I don't know what will.
With respect to Melissa on Twitter, I find it implausible that a short-seller created a very long-existing and involved fraudulent Twitter profile, simply to drop an offhand remark about Afrezza. (Same with mrcoleslaw, but his profile is much more spartan so a bit more suspect.) Melissa told me that she worked for SNY. I believe her. I recounted what she said to me, mentioning that in spite of the botched initial launch, SNY "was on it" to rectify it - a positive you must acknowledge I mentioned in my post. That is the reason that keeps me long.
PS The whole "dump the stock if you are not happy" admonition is a clever way to squash legitimate discussion and, yes, debate on this board, which I thought was the whole purpose of this board. If I am wrong about this, let me know. I don't like to be negative but I also have to call it like I see it.
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Post by gamblerjag on Oct 9, 2015 12:14:32 GMT -5
I don't believe Melissa for a second.. two LOL's in here tweet; too short; not enough info.. = basher.
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Post by suebeeee1 on Oct 9, 2015 12:19:16 GMT -5
"Sanofi rep visited w/ me this week - said Afrezza will now be marketed by people other than Sanofi reps. I asked about NRx data - although the rep didn't name numbers, the rep's facial expression said it all - and that the biggest b arrier for people writing Afrezza was the PFTs that have to be performed before prescribing - this was a larger issue than most had believed it would be. Long-term will Afrezza do well? Likely, if it's affordable. 1. I don't think the PFT is as big a barrier as Sanofi would like to believe. 2. Its all about the affordability. Insurance companies need to cover this in order for doctors to feel comfortable prescribing it and people considering it! |
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Post by kball on Oct 9, 2015 12:40:19 GMT -5
I think this is a good discussion with many concerns that have to be on the minds of most of us, but lets be careful not to turn this from proboard to prohoo.
Lots of moving parts i believe behind the scenes in prep for script growth here and perhaps other countries...but from the numbers we do see every week (scripts), and every day (stock price), so far i've been wrong and hoping its all a "time" issue and not a partnership problem issue
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Post by kdaddyfresh2000 on Oct 9, 2015 12:58:39 GMT -5
SNY has not mentioned Afrezza in their last two CCs and their most recent Shareholder meeting. Why would they mention Afrezza now?
I called Matt 2 weeks ago regarding this - I called the same day that kevinmik did non YMB which is why I know kevinmik was telling the truth. Matt explained that Afrezza is too small to mention for a company the size of SNY with a slew of other drugs with more sales to mention. |
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Post by me on Oct 9, 2015 13:39:51 GMT -5
"K, Kdaddy, here's about as pure and constructive a comment you'll ever get. If you believe Melissa (and why wouldn't you as you referenced her as part of your serious DD) and mrcoleslaw from SA (and why wouldn't you as your referenced him as part of your serious DD); and if you believe there is little or no SNY commitment (as indicated by the gist of your comments), then I highly recommend you dump this stock now. $3 per share is better than $0 per share. And, by keeping your $$$$$ tied up in MNKD, you're missing all the other opportunities that I'm sure you've already identified. Why wouldn't you dump the stock? Based upon your insights and beliefs, there can be no other answer for you.
I'd be highly interested in exactly your reasons for being long in this stock. What positive reasons counter (<= please note, "counter", not just some random positive reasons) your negative views above? And why no mention of those reasons in your analysis? In other words, what exactly is your long thesis? Because if you can describe a long thesis that keeps you in the stock given all the calamities that you describe and imply, then I know my decision on this stock is rock solid. I'm looking forward to you sharing. If you have no cogent reasons to counter the dismal circumstances you describe above, then I guess I should probably re-evaluate my own position. Your earliest comment would be greatly appreciated."
You have to lose the sarcasm. That in itself if not constructive and, while perhaps emotionally satisfying to you and others, does nothing to address the issues I raised. My post was not a comprehensive pro- and con- analysis. It was meant to relate some sobering information to shareholders and seek some factual input, discussion, and counter-arguments. First off, you must acknowledge that I specifically qualified that the posters I referenced may be lying. It is the internet. That does not mean that everyone is posting lies, e.g., kevinmik on YMB got mercilessly bashed and called a liar for recounting his phone conversation with Matt 2 weeks ago. Yesterday, he was vindicated by Matt, down to "I am working out of moving boxes" from Matt verbatim repeated at the conference yesterday that kevinmik mentioned in his post 2 weeks ago.
Simply, I am a long that (1) believes in Al Mann based on his track record in science and business and (2) in the Afrezza product itself from an objective scientific basis, a la CGM readings on Twitter, patient testimony, etc. However, I have concerns about SNY's execution of Afrezza's marketing and sales. If the layoffs, the flat script numbers (we have been hovering at 500 for the last 4 straight months), and the comments by Matt himself don't tell you there are problems with sales and marketing, then I don't know what will.
With respect to Melissa on Twitter, I find it implausible that a short-seller created a very long-existing and involved fraudulent Twitter profile, simply to drop an offhand remark about Afrezza. (Same with mrcoleslaw, but his profile is much more spartan so a bit more suspect.) Melissa told me that she worked for SNY. I believe her. I recounted what she said to me, mentioning that in spite of the botched initial launch, SNY "was on it" to rectify it - a positive you must acknowledge I mentioned in my post. That is the reason that keeps me long.
PS The whole "dump the stock if you are not happy" admonition is a clever way to squash legitimate discussion and, yes, debate on this board, which I thought was the whole purpose of this board. If I am wrong about this, let me know. I don't like to be negative but I also have to call it like I see it.
- You're right, your post was not a comprehensive analysis, it was simply a negative aspersion
- If you are in fact seeking some factual input, discussion and counter-arguments, then why not begin with cfeld's very well presented exposition of the strategy behind marketing, as well as the numerous posts stating, re-emphasizing and re-iterating the tactical and logical reasons for why Afrezza has not yet gone gangbusters. Such continuous re-posting of these same ideas, mind you, is having to respond to the incessant soft bashing which appears to simply ignore this valuable information. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here, and assume you've read none of these insights, as well as the numerous links that have been provided in this forum describing modern drug launches
- So you believe in Al Mann and in Afrezza itself, but it's SNY's execution that has you concerned. But isn't it SNY's execution (or lack thereof) that will determine the success in your investment and not whether Al Mann is a genius or Afrezza works astoundingly well?! So how does your belief in these two counter your SNY concern? This isn't a long thesis.
- Layoffs, flat scripts and Matt's comments? Again, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you are truly seeking information here and you haven't actually been following things too closely. (1) Layoffs - Last summer, MNKD partnered with SNY to launch Afrezza. With regard to Afrezza, MNKD is simply a manufacturing company. Are you really suggesting MNKD maintain staffing positions for functions it no longer requires? As a long myself, I'd actually prefer them to eliminate those positions. (2) Flat scripts - If you spend some time reviewing this forum, you'll understand that there are a few things that SNY needs to accomplish prior to an all-out push for Afrezza, not the least of which is (i) Tier 2 designation, (ii) improved labeling and (iii) dovetailing with its Lantus replacement in a cohesive marketing strategy. None of these three issues could have been accomplished prior to launch by their very definition. I can't think of a more efficient and effective way for SNY to do unburdened clinical research than seeking out the feedback and experience of a select number of doctors, which feedback will greatly assist in (i), (ii) and (iii), above. So, maybe, just maybe, having few dozen physicians, and a few dozen only, actively prescribing Afrezza (for the reasons above) could be the reason scripts are flat. Or, I could take your position and assume the flat scripts are because of SNY's lack of execution. (3) Matt's comments - again, if you review this forum, the MNKD-SNY agreement and research a little into the investment world, you'll see that Matt is somewhat hamstrung by what he can and cannot say. This is a special burden for MNKD as they've been burned once in trying to be overly informative.
- Melissa - OK. I can't debate with you there. You believe her, I don't know her from Adam. I guess it's plausible that she has the complete inside scoop that institutional investors are missing.
- I did not say to "dump the stock" if you're "not happy." You're trying to put words in my mouth, a very bad habit of some posters here. I said "dump the stock" if you believe Melissa (you do), believe mrcoleslaw (you may or may not) and if you believe there is little or no SNY commitment (you believe that as well). In other words, dump the stock if your long thesis no longer holds. Contrary to being "a clever way to squash legitimate discussion," it is probably one of the greatest truisms a successful investor can embrace.
So, this board is full of factual input if you can wade through the soft bashing and there are legitimate reasons for where Afrezza is at this stage. If these things support your long thesis, then stay long. If you believe Melissa and don't believe in SNY's commitment, then dump it. But whatever you do, I'm begging you not to (no matter how subtle you may think you are) tout your "longness" and then rehash every innuendo you can think of to bash the stock, management, partner, etc. It's unbecoming.
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Post by lorcan458 on Oct 9, 2015 13:44:51 GMT -5
Matt explained that Afrezza is too small to mention for a company the size of SNY with a slew of other drugs with more sales to mention.
I am as enthusiastic a long as there is, but those who are bashing management have a valid point. What Matt should insist Sanofi do is spend literally 30 seconds and say, "We've just begun a controlled launch of an inhaled mealtime insulin with performance so good, you take it just before your first bite of food and it clears your system faster than any insulin ever sold. Initial results from patients are extremely encouraging. It is the perfect complement to Truejo and we look forward to delivering these results worldwide in 2016." |
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