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Post by oracle on Jan 18, 2014 21:02:46 GMT -5
Yo Chris, Please do elaborate. Break your valuation down for us like BeyondProxy did so we can understand your pessimism.
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Post by Chris on Jan 18, 2014 21:43:55 GMT -5
Yo Chris, Please do elaborate. Break your valuation down for us like BeyondProxy did so we can understand your pessimism. Oracle, the data is there and I don't doubt what Proxy wrote is not probable just difficult to achieve. I can't disapprove that there are 25.8 diabetics in America. Nor how it's increasing in many countries worldwide due to poor management and education. I know this to be true and factual. I believe that Afrezza will not be as quickly adapted as many projections and models predict and portray. I don't believe we will capture the percentage that's ambitiously set fourth in many estimates until multiple large and often underestimated hurdles are overcame: approval, marketing and advertising, brand building, promoting, positioning and so forth... All of which will hopefully be slightly alleviated with a strong partnership. Before one can count to a thousand one just first count a couple hundreds... Before MNKD has millions we must first have hundreds of thousands of patients... No easy feat. Even large companies with great products don't make it. following MNKD and it's adaption rate will be interesting; I hope MNKD can post in the green by the 2nd quarter after approval. I hope this helps you... Cheers |
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Post by spiro on Jan 19, 2014 11:51:23 GMT -5
Chris, i am a little surprised by the lack of supporting evidence for your low expect ions for Afrezza. It would indicate to me that you either hold a minimal long position or have a small short position. Personally, I don't invest in a stock, unless I have a firm belief, in it's eventually success. George Rho, Joe Springer and BeyondProxy have basically reached the same conclusion on Afrezza. They have quite extensive documentation and research to support their position and projections, for Afrezza's eventual success. It's also most likely that marketing studies conducted by MNKD, Greenhill and Deerfield also had similar results, indicating a favorable market acceptance for Afrezza. Anecdotal data from both doctors and diabetics is off the charts. Afrezza has super blockbuster written all over it. It's obvious that MNKD's share price direction will be influenced by numerous catalysts which could take it in either direction short term. A few of these catalysts could be, major partner or lack of, regional partner, outright buyout of Afrezza, Adcom committee approval or lack of and FDA approval or lack of. Secondary catalyst could include, foreign market approvals, substantial institutional buying, analyst upgrades, foreign country orders and Technosphere contracts. It's hard to believe that a long would write that a major partner would only slightly alleviate his concerns. HMMMM Also, can you name a few large drug companies with great products that didn't make it?
Spiro here, long and strong
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Post by BD on Jan 19, 2014 13:28:14 GMT -5
I find that it is generally counter-productive to infer someone as long or short in response to an isolated opinion on something, especially when they are a long-term prolific contributor to our shareholder community(-ies).
Just an observation...
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Post by alcc on Jan 19, 2014 13:32:48 GMT -5
Spiro: I do not agree with Chris's shallow read of the Afrezza investment thesis, but I will defend his right to say it without being labelled a short, as seems to be the regrettable, kneejerk reaction by many on this board.
Re Chris, name one biotech that did not start as a "one-trick pony". Genentech? Amgen? Gilead? Every single one was a one trick pony. As to penetration ramp, yes, MNKD needs a BP partner with marketing heft; yes, it won't be a slamdunk against entrenched RAAs. However, either Afrezza fails in the market per Exubera (if that is your fear then you should not even consider the stock) or it will ramp rapidly enough. My guess is it will reach blockbuster status within 2 yrs. Besides, we who have some white hair from investing experience would know full well that the street is a discounting machine. The stock will ramp way ahead of the ramp. For a patient buy-and-hold type, that might not matter too much. However, for a TA tea-leaves reader type (by your own declaration), why would revenue ramp even matter?
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Post by alcc on Jan 19, 2014 13:35:06 GMT -5
Meant to say the stock would ramp way ahead of the revenue ramp.
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Post by spiro on Jan 19, 2014 14:04:25 GMT -5
A1cc, My response to Chris wasn't a knee-jerk reaction. I read his nonsense last night. I actually think that there is a possibility that he holds a few shares. But, because of his low expectations, it's more likely that he either doesn't have a position yet or he is short a small amount of shares. If he seriously believes that a major partner would only slightly alleviate his questionable concerns, for me, it's hard to reach any other conclusion about him. If MNKD gets a major partner, the longs here will breathe a monstrous sigh of relief and enjoy a solid share price increase. JMHO
Spiro
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Post by Chris on Jan 19, 2014 14:47:05 GMT -5
This was not requested and maybe I should not have even bothered but here's a partial screenshot of my portfolio to put Spiro's doubts to rest: Attachment DeletedI'm long. I've been long MNKD. I was once a moderator here, I'm a moderator at mannkind.freeforums, long time poster on Agoracom (2-3 years worth of posts) and occasionally post on InvestorsHub and on some MNKD articles and have even made a temp account on Yahoo to defend longs whom I consider friends that were under scrutiny and attack. As you see from the screen shoot, foolishly perhaps - I've not diversified and have put all my eggs in one basket. But I'm watching this basket very very closely. I have actually sold out all of my positions in various other companies and am heavily weighted on MNKD stock and have built up a cash position for liquidity and potential future use for MNKD or other stocks if I see fit. I do not disapprove anything Rho has said per say. I believe MNKD CAN and will possibly reach those estimates and potentially blow them over. However, before MNKD does, there is much uncertainty and hurdles to overcome. I believe in the science, I believe in Al Mann's entrepreneurial vision and yes management has had missteps and blunders but a year and a half ago they said they'd file for FDA approval on Q2 and they have done so. I have every right to criticize and question management as a shareholder. Frankly, I call MNKD every couple months or so, last time being when MCS showed up on MNKD's press release: mannkind.freeforums.net/thread/179/fda-acceptanceI'm busy these following days but I will try to make time to create models to share with you all - since some of you have request so... but in all honesty it's as simple as looking at the current models you see and cutting down the expected adaptation and capture rates listed. e.g. Someone says the Lakers basketball team will beat the Celtics by 25+ points and all I'm saying is - I agree but before that can happen let's first see if the Lakers can catch up since they're down by 15 points. That's all I'm trying to say with Rho's estimates. I understand it's also very hard to value a biotech stock fundamentally since so much depends on expected income generated from a specific drug and niche. We've all witnessed harsh 15-30% biotech corrections and we've heard about the DNDN story and perhaps many of you may have, like I have - been part of the ACAD story. You never know with these things... I hope my expectations are blown out of the water. I'd love to be completely surprised and baffled. I just simply feel like since we're in biotech and this sector is very speculative in nature any point I make will just be refuted - we'll all just banter back and forth and this will all just be counter productive if I continue to elaborate. So I may just put this to rest... But believe me, I'm ready to cross the FDA finish line with many of you. I put off trips, sold personal belongings and paintings I've made to invest into MNKD. Perhaps I may not have as much invested as some of you, but I bet in relation to your net worth - you probably have not committed as much as I have. I'm still young so I'm taking this assumed calculated risk now and I'm putting in the time and effort - right now on the line. But I've learned not to invest on hope, fear and uncertainty. Trust me, I've evaluated my position hundreds of times. I've probably read every MNKD article out there. I read every single comment posted. I almost religiously refresh all the MNKD forums and blogs. Pardon me for any grammatical errors, no time to proof read. It's going to be a busy weekend as I'm helping prepare for my father's surprise birthday and other events... Cheers |
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Post by Chris on Jan 19, 2014 14:51:34 GMT -5
Spiro: I do not agree with Chris's shallow read of the Afrezza investment thesis, but I will defend his right to say it without being labelled a short, as seems to be the regrettable, kneejerk reaction by many on this board. Re Chris, name one biotech that did not start as a "one-trick pony". Genentech? Amgen? Gilead? Every single one was a one trick pony. As to penetration ramp, yes, MNKD needs a BP partner with marketing heft; yes, it won't be a slamdunk against entrenched RAAs. However, either Afrezza fails in the market per Exubera (if that is your fear then you should not even consider the stock) or it will ramp rapidly enough. My guess is it will reach blockbuster status within 2 yrs. Besides, we who have some white hair from investing experience would know full well that the street is a discounting machine. The stock will ramp way ahead of the ramp. For a patient buy-and-hold type, that might not matter too much. However, for a TA tea-leaves reader type (by your own declaration), why would revenue ramp even matter? I agree, I didn't state MNKD was a one trick pony as a means of saying I don't believe MNKD will be successful, I did it to state it's a tricky game with companies like these because you literally ride or die depending on FDA approval. I agree the stock will ramp up ahead of revenues - we've already seen that given the Phase III 8+ run up. I have not declared that I'm a TA tea-leaves reader type. I've just been learning how to chart for the past couple months and would like guidance. Actually, that's why I haven't posted my beliefs in the fear that I may accidentally mislead people without knowing so... I've even messaged Liane about this and have made a small mention about that in one of my posts... Cheers |
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Post by nemzter on Jan 19, 2014 15:48:04 GMT -5
All good guys, let's just agree to disagree. We're all in this together and I hope we can laugh this off at the shareholders meeting in May over a nice steak and a few bottles of Blue label.
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Post by liane on Jan 19, 2014 16:20:22 GMT -5
All good guys, let's just agree to disagree. We're all in this together and I hope we can laugh this off at the shareholders meeting in May over a nice steak and a few bottles of Blue label. Well said nemzter. Truth is, at this point, it's all speculative how fast MNKD will grow. All opinions welcomed. |
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Post by alcc on Jan 19, 2014 16:38:04 GMT -5
Agree. Well said, nemzter.
Chris, we are not that far apart, then. Next to you, I am probably the second most cautious bull here.
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Post by Chris on Jan 19, 2014 17:13:10 GMT -5
Agree. Well said, nemzter. Chris, we are not that far apart, then. Next to you, I am probably the second most cautious bull here. Yes, I actually plan on selling some blocks before, very close to and after FDA approval. However this strategy may change if additional news comes to light. MNKD would be an awesome stock to have in one's retirement portfolio for it's sheer potential in the 5-10 year long outlook if the stars a line. |
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Post by ashiwi on Jan 19, 2014 17:59:32 GMT -5
There could be a sale of MNKD before I retire, unless of course we get a DNDN type move to 50 with irrational exuberance after FDA approval and BP partner.
I will then join the ranks of Spiro and retire young.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 20, 2014 2:16:54 GMT -5
I'm much like Chris, in MNKD disproportionately, and highly cautious. One big difference, I don't read nearly as many things as Chris does, beyond a point, it just doesn't help anymore. This investment is an educated guess, and not much more.
Put it this way, I would rather have my money on one roll of the dice, and get paid 3 to 1 that a 9 doesn't show on that roll, than be in MNKD - my odds would be great in that situation, but I'd still be concerned/scared about that nine spot showing (concerned till the dice were in the shooter's hand and then scared as he rolled them). Many longs (not necessarily the ones on this board) are treating the upcoming events as though it's as easy as not rolling a nine on a particular roll (87.5% of the time you won't roll one), and once the nine doesn't show, they are looking at far more than getting a 3 to 1 reward.
Now, our emotions and mental processes are all different, but guardedly optimistic is all I can muster up. Spiro, I wish I could manage this investment as you do - it would be quite freeing, but I can't and I suspect more than a few others can't either.
So, going back to the dice analogy, I will try to get a significant side bet on that nine showing on the next roll. I've already done some, but will do others. What I do depends in part on what the price gets to nearing March 28, and, as I've said in another post, a partnership will affect that price materially.
There is going to be one heck of a lot of pump pieces between now and 3/28; there is going to one heck of a lot of hit pieces in that time frame, too. Absent new material information, I doubt any one of them, pro or con, will change my view at all. It's all been said and said again, and we've all read it and read it again.
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