Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2015 11:31:13 GMT -5
MNKD is no longer a risk reward investment as there's now mostly risk and very little real or actual rewards now or in the near term. While that will rankle many here it should be considered for those interested in preserving capital.
The legs were kicked out from under mnkd by the lack of any real direction, info, or future for afrezza in sny's stable of drugs per the friday sny presentation. Afrezza got one full slide with no new info on it and some honorable mentions on a few other slides. The main thrust was all the new deals sny signed and none of them with mnkd. It was painful to read the finances of those deals which were more favorable than what mnkd received for afrezza to say the least. Then, to add more misery the scripts came in slightly below the previous weeks numbers so yet again no signs of life there. No matter on the script number though because they are so low they only register on the "who cares" list of anyone who knows what it takes to get revs rolling where they need to be rolling. Then todays 10-Q. Now that was brutal. Where to start there - 33 million in cash on the balance sheet, had to pay out 64 million for the convertible debt which is a terrible sign for future cash infusions since nobody wants a piece of mnkd anymore, and 30 million left on the mann loan facility. And those are just the highlights.......
If this was a football game mnkd is right now in the 4th quarter, down by 30, with a few minutes left in the game. The only thing left are a series of hail marys and offside kicks. Possible, but getting less and less likely as time passes ticks by.....risk analysis isyour friend when investing is the takeaway here. If you had a robust risk analysis you would have reduced or outright sold off a long position months ago. The lesson here is to never ignore the risks and adjust as time goes by based on whats happening instead of what you "want" to happen. gla
The legs were kicked out from under mnkd by the lack of any real direction, info, or future for afrezza in sny's stable of drugs per the friday sny presentation. Afrezza got one full slide with no new info on it and some honorable mentions on a few other slides. The main thrust was all the new deals sny signed and none of them with mnkd. It was painful to read the finances of those deals which were more favorable than what mnkd received for afrezza to say the least. Then, to add more misery the scripts came in slightly below the previous weeks numbers so yet again no signs of life there. No matter on the script number though because they are so low they only register on the "who cares" list of anyone who knows what it takes to get revs rolling where they need to be rolling. Then todays 10-Q. Now that was brutal. Where to start there - 33 million in cash on the balance sheet, had to pay out 64 million for the convertible debt which is a terrible sign for future cash infusions since nobody wants a piece of mnkd anymore, and 30 million left on the mann loan facility. And those are just the highlights.......
If this was a football game mnkd is right now in the 4th quarter, down by 30, with a few minutes left in the game. The only thing left are a series of hail marys and offside kicks. Possible, but getting less and less likely as time passes ticks by.....risk analysis isyour friend when investing is the takeaway here. If you had a robust risk analysis you would have reduced or outright sold off a long position months ago. The lesson here is to never ignore the risks and adjust as time goes by based on whats happening instead of what you "want" to happen. gla
