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Post by stevil on Dec 1, 2015 16:23:12 GMT -5
please explain the cash position. Most were under the assumption that dilution of the ATMs/LOC money could bring in another $68m in addition to the $60m they have with the Israeli money....they need $25m minimum in the bank at all times to operate....so we are talking about a 30+m share dilution in the near future that will leave us with $103m in operating money at an $9m burn rate...so we can survive till Dec 2016.......yet you say 2017? There is one theory which depends on stars aligning... that avail ATM shares were sold awhile a ago at a better price, not yet to be sold at potentially lower still price, and that we roll out of Q3 with exactly $25M and then can burn through all of it in Q4 because the restrictive covenant regarding having $25M cash only gets triggered at the end of a quarter. I hope that MNKD has a more conservative approach than getting down to less than $25M with a deadline that it must be replaced by end of quarter to avoid default on a loan covenant. It would also be nice if MNKD had utilized ATM to raise capital, they would announce it... but even I admit that if it did happen, I think there is little chance we'd be told about it... so who knows, that may actually have happened. A bit strange to have faith in it, lacking evidence, but it's not the strangest hope to believe in. Realistically, there would need to be a larger issue of shares to get us into 2017 unless MNKD again takes drastic measures and curtails TS pipeline development. The part that's really confusing (without speculating on a plan that fell through or SNY ramping up marketing in accordance with the removal of headwinds/barriers) is just taking Matt's comments at face value. He seemed pretty adamant that dilution would be a last-ditch effort and would not be needed. Ok, I have to speculate... The way all the events of this quarter unfolded tells me that something big either fell through or something is just on the horizon. I would hope that MNKD wasn't putting all their eggs in a mythical basket and instead had something water-tight and concrete to rest that confidence on. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 1, 2015 16:35:41 GMT -5
stevil... if Matt's prior comments about no dilution were based on some event that is still just on the horizon, it is very odd that we'd have CEO depart just prior to it occurring. Who knows why Matt made that statement. The TASE ETF sale was dilution, so it seems we already know that something did not go as planned.
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Post by garrett on Dec 1, 2015 17:03:08 GMT -5
please explain the cash position. Most were under the assumption that dilution of the ATMs/LOC money could bring in another $68m in addition to the $60m they have with the Israeli money....they need $25m minimum in the bank at all times to operate....so we are talking about a 30+m share dilution in the near future that will leave us with $103m in operating money at an $9m burn rate...so we can survive till Dec 2016.......yet you say 2017? Dec 2016 or Jan 2017 - it's basicly the same thing. The point I was making is that operating cash for the next year is not an issue. Also, if sales are not materializing early on 2016, I am sure there are many other opportunities to cut expenses even further thereby reducing cash burn. |
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Post by doctorgreenback on Dec 1, 2015 22:48:59 GMT -5
Of course the fundamental point being the required return to the cap markets for funding by early q3 16 nearly a full year before the contract with sanofi ends and way before Afrezza is profitable. It also implies a burn rate probably even closer to $8m a month which leaves just about $0 for TS R&D between now and then.
Seriously, is this the time to place TS on the shelf again. I thought we were testing products in house for partnership.
Either way we hardly can fund a thing between now and q3
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 2, 2015 1:02:59 GMT -5
please explain the cash position. Most were under the assumption that dilution of the ATMs/LOC money could bring in another $68m in addition to the $60m they have with the Israeli money....they need $25m minimum in the bank at all times to operate....so we are talking about a 30+m share dilution in the near future that will leave us with $103m in operating money at an $9m burn rate...so we can survive till Dec 2016.......yet you say 2017? Dec 2016 or Jan 2017 - it's basicly the same thing. The point I was making is that operating cash for the next year is not an issue. Also, if sales are not materializing early on 2016, I am sure there are many other opportunities to cut expenses even further thereby reducing cash burn. I would have to agree with you. I would think that unless there is a huge uptick in scripts, Mannkind will have to make further headcount cuts to reduce negative cash flow.
Trend
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 2, 2015 2:19:57 GMT -5
Of course the fundamental point being the required return to the cap markets for funding by early q3 16 nearly a full year before the contract with sanofi ends and way before Afrezza is profitable. It also implies a burn rate probably even closer to $8m a month which leaves just about $0 for TS R&D between now and then. Seriously, is this the time to place TS on the shelf again. I thought we were testing products in house for partnership. Either way we hardly can fund a thing between now and q3 What are you talking about? There is no specified end date to the Sanofi contract. It can be terminated with certain notice given by Sanofi after January 1, 2016. |
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Post by doctorgreenback on Dec 2, 2015 6:41:35 GMT -5
I'm talking about the redacted agreement through late 2017
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