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Post by bill on Dec 4, 2015 20:22:48 GMT -5
bill it seems that you keep responding to things you do not seem to grasp. MNKD would likely still receive milestones (if they wrote this into a sale with SNY) AND they would use the money from the sale of Afrezza to fund Technosphere Development as MNKD Technologies. jeremg - You said "separate the company." I assumed you meant create two independent companies; one dedicated to Afrezza and SNY, and the other to TS. If you meant create a separate company under the parent MNKD company for TS developments then you are correct that cross company funding wouldn't be an issue. However, I fail to see what advantage a small company like MNKD would gain by creating another corporate entity in either case since I don't think the MNKD staff get confused about whether they're supporting Afrezza manufacturing or TS product development. The combination of the two does get the advantage of having a single set of infrastructure that supports the entire company; finance, human resources, etc.
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Post by trenddiver on Dec 4, 2015 20:25:54 GMT -5
jeremg also, Does mnkd want to be a product development company, or an Afrezza production company. The wisest move might be to separate the two so that everyone knows their jobs. Human insulin by Technospere was quite a triumph. The smaller molecules or peptides should be a cake walk, so why haven't we seen any? jeremg One reason I can think of to keep the two together is so MNKD can use Afrezza milestone payments and profits to fund TS developments. If they were separated the MNKD TS company would lose its primary source of funding for TS developments. Without funding, there are no TS products. New capital will be raised to exploit the TS opportunities in a spunoff entity, I think that would be the preferred strategy going forward.
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Post by bill on Dec 4, 2015 20:25:56 GMT -5
jeremg So, under your hypothesis why would SNY establish a relationship with the early adopters and invite them to San Diego's Del Mar at their expense--particularly if they're keeping the event under wraps? If I were SNY, and I were inclined to slow roll the Afrezza launch indefinitely, I'd make a big deal out of any event that I could subsequently use to show I was making reasonable efforts to commercialize Afrezza. SNY's doing just the opposite. havenotwantnot - That reasoning is both illogical and absurd (especially based on the fact that it's premised on a meeting we know nothing about). Your speculation on top of speculation cannot be used to prove the point you are trying to prove, it just doesn't work. jeremg - OK. You're certainly to your opinion that my reasoning is illogical and absurd, and that my suppositions don't work for you. I'll just move onto some other topic.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 4, 2015 20:29:11 GMT -5
bill it seems that you keep responding to things you do not seem to grasp. MNKD would likely still receive milestones (if they wrote this into a sale with SNY) AND they would use the money from the sale of Afrezza to fund Technosphere Development as MNKD Technologies. My last post today--- this stock will make you crazy thanks to a lot of secrecy (the really insidious secrecy being inside of GSCO, TST, Renaissance and other hedge funds) ---- there are so many possible directions here! MNKD could be an Afrezza company, a Technosphere licensing company, a Technosphere product development company, a partner to big pharma (which has billions of dollars to throw around and it's free money -- they evade taxes by laundering offshore), or maybe things that are completely under wraps at this time. Pointless to speculate. Shorts' time is running out, let's just hope those pigs stop feeding in this HFT/dark pool/manipulation trough
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Post by jeremg on Dec 4, 2015 20:29:46 GMT -5
bill you still seem to have misunderstood the discussion about "separating" the company, we weren't discussing splitting into two entities, we we're discussing selling off Afrezza to SNY and using the proceeds to develop Technosphere [the one and only - original "Embarrassment of Riches"]. MNKD would become a research and development company once again and we would each hopefully make a dividend off of the sale of Afrezza.
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Post by mnkdnut on Dec 4, 2015 20:43:09 GMT -5
My observations are 1.) SNY in the US is executing some sort of launch plan originally conceived under Viehbacher that we obviously don't have any details on, and 2.) Brandicourt has promoted a number of key products and partners in his overall strategy, but has said absolutely nothing about Afrezza. From this, I think it's plausible that Brandicourt is skeptical (or at least withholding judgement) about Afrezza, but has allowed the US team some time period to make their case for what they can make of it.
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Post by bill on Dec 4, 2015 20:43:49 GMT -5
bill you still seem to have misunderstood the discussion about "separating" the company, we weren't discussing splitting into two entities, we we're discussing selling off Afrezza to SNY and using the proceeds to develop Technosphere [the one and only - original "Embarrassment of Riches"]. MNKD would become a research and development company once again and we would each hopefully make a dividend off of the sale of Afrezza. jeremg - Ok. That wasn't what I thought you meant. Yes, that makes sense, and yes the funds realized from the Afrezza sale would provide more than adequate funding for TS developments. We are in agreement on that issue. Thanks for your time!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 4, 2015 23:45:39 GMT -5
My observations are 1.) SNY in the US is executing some sort of launch plan originally conceived under Viehbacher that we obviously don't have any details on, and 2.) Brandicourt has promoted a number of key products and partners in his overall strategy, but has said absolutely nothing about Afrezza. From this, I think it's plausible that Brandicourt is skeptical (or at least withholding judgement) about Afrezza, but has allowed the US team some time period to make their case for what they can make of it. I think it speculation rather than observation... but sounds plausible to me. Problem is there are numerous plausible scenarios, and even if one could figure out the probable one, it likely wouldn't be clear what it would mean for MNKD's finances and share price.
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Post by fedakd on Dec 5, 2015 14:32:05 GMT -5
bill you still seem to have misunderstood the discussion about "separating" the company, we weren't discussing splitting into two entities, we we're discussing selling off Afrezza to SNY and using the proceeds to develop Technosphere [the one and only - original "Embarrassment of Riches"]. MNKD would become a research and development company once again and we would each hopefully make a dividend off of the sale of Afrezza. jeremg - Ok. That wasn't what I thought you meant. Yes, that makes sense, and yes the funds realized from the Afrezza sale would provide more than adequate funding for TS developments. We are in agreement on that issue. Thanks for your time! Some good ideas here guys... What I believe is underway is exactly this...Selling Afrezza to Sanofi for a few billion and using the profits to fund the Technosphere development pipeline. What would also sweeten the pot, is if MNKD used some of the profits of the Afrezza sale to buy back their shares and reduce the size of the float. MNKD would then be 1) cash rich, 2) a going concern 3) have a stronger negotiating position. Mannkind Technologies will then be born. Here's to hoping Happy Saturday all.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 5, 2015 15:07:08 GMT -5
jeremg - Ok. That wasn't what I thought you meant. Yes, that makes sense, and yes the funds realized from the Afrezza sale would provide more than adequate funding for TS developments. We are in agreement on that issue. Thanks for your time! Some good ideas here guys... What I believe is underway is exactly this... Selling Afrezza to Sanofi for a few billion and using the profits to fund the Technosphere development pipeline. What would also sweeten the pot, is if MNKD used some of the profits of the Afrezza sale to buy back their shares and reduce the size of the float. MNKD would then be 1) cash rich, 2) a going concern 3) have a stronger negotiating position. Mannkind Technologies will then be born.Here's to hoping Happy Saturday all. This was pure speculation we were engaging in; unfortunately, I don't think there is any indication whatsoever that this is in the works. Playing Devil's Advocate here, if this were a thought in Al's mind, and if he approached SNY, and IF SNY was interested in buying the remaining 35% of Afrezza [revenue], I can guarantee it would not be to the tune of a few billion, MNKD's entire market value is now less than a $1bil... the idea that SNY would buy Afrezza [35% revenue remaining] for a few billion is just insane. So what do I think SNY would consider paying for Afrezza at this stage? - Optimistically between $300-600mil - which would allow MNKD Technologies plenty of room to develop Tech and thrive over the next few years* [cash burn would decrease significantly and we would finally be able to approach Tech partners from a position of strength*].
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Post by fedakd on Dec 5, 2015 15:34:08 GMT -5
I don't care what the market value is on MNKD at present. It won't be sold for $300-600 million. I guarantee you that especially since Al stated he wouldn't sell Afrezza for 3 billion. Get real.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 5, 2015 15:47:39 GMT -5
I don't care what the market value is on MNKD at present. It won't be sold for $300-600 million. I guarantee you that especially since Al stated he wouldn't sell Afrezza for 3 billion. Get real. "what do I think SNY would consider paying for Afrezza"
Edit: "Al stated he wouldn't sell Afrezza for 3 billion." - In other words, it's not going to happen.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 5, 2015 16:01:15 GMT -5
jeremg ... desperate times may change Al's position. So as 2016 wears on, if MNKD needs to raise capital and SNY has any interest in buying the remaining 35%, I would think it would be considered. I don't think there was ever any plans to reopen negotiations on Afrezza... but circumstances change. I would disagree a bit with your valuation number. To me it would seem that if SNY were buying the remaining 35% they would have to justify to their shareholders that they were confident in the market potential for Afrezza. If that is a claim they make, then it would seem odd, and not in MNKD shareholders interests, to accept less than the fees SNY would owe MNKD, even if the royalty stream were given zero value. At least I don't believe in the low end of your range because that would seem to be a strange combination of SNY basically saying they think Afrezza isn't going to be a mainstream diabetes product that would ever trigger the full payments to MNKD... and yet they want to double down and invest more in it. Seems hard sell to their shareholders. Not that I think there is high likelihood, but assuming SNY really believes in Afrezza, I think a deal would have to be at least at the high end of your range.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 5, 2015 16:41:54 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise I think if things got desperate (like facing BK again after the secondary soon to come - at least 1-1.5yrs down the road), I think you are right that Al would consider selling Afrezza as a last ditch effort. My position is, IF we got to that desperate point, I don't think $300mil for Afrezza is that farfetched (conservatively, taking into account a total Market Cap [at that desperate point] of $600mil), in a "last ditch effort" scenario. When you consider that SNY could just say "No" to $300mil with the thought that MNKD will just become insolvent and they will pickup Afrezza either way... I think Al would need to accept whatever is offered. I don't buy your paying more to "justify value of Afrezza to SNY shareholders" thought, if SNY and their shareholders could pickup Afrezza for $1, why wouldn't they without hesitation? Would they altruistically say "No, Afrezza is worth more, we will pay the equivalent of MNKDs entire market cap for this one drug [which SNY has already made out to be a "failure" as far as outside optics - which includes what their own shareholders see]?.
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Post by cjc04 on Dec 5, 2015 17:38:11 GMT -5
I honestly enjoy reading worse case scenarios rather than all the blind wishful thinking, sucking the Kool-aid straw is what got me in this mess in the first place.
However, this conversation, $300m to $600m in 12 - 18 months for Afrezza, is just as ridiculous as the idea of getting a 1/2 share of SNY stock for Afrezza this January.
SO much could / would happen before we ever got to that point. First off, it would be crystal clear that SNY was not working within our goals and MNKD would be pulling away from them long before 18 months from now. If they couldn't cleanly get away, faulting SNY with a breach, they could, at no expense, take X countries away from SNY and sell there themselves. There's 100 things that would happen in 18 months before MNKD would give Afrezza away for $600m.
And if it could ever get to that point, I'd sell it to another BP for $300m before I sold it to SNY just to fuk with them.
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