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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 13:08:05 GMT -5
Discussion in the past on this topic has been fragmented across many threads - so considering where we are right now with the bottom falling out on us - based on the knowns [as opposed to future unknowns], where is the basement bottom? If I remember correctly MNKD has a significant tax loss carryover which can be realized by a future suitor, given this fact alone (I don't remember the exact number, hoping someone will chime in(?)) what would we be worth on the auction block?
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Post by silentknight on Dec 7, 2015 13:24:23 GMT -5
With the price action as of late, it doesn't look like there is a bottom, unless it's zero. The stock as lost roughly 85% of its value in a year and a half more or less. I'd say MNKDs patents and IP for Afrezza/TS are worth more than the current valuation, but clearly that doesn't matter to the market. The stock will continue to free fall until some announcement is made that indicates that the company isn't on life support. For some time now, neither MNKD nor SNY has done anything to combat that idea and we'll all be waiting until they do. Perception is reality and the perception is that the company is in dire straights. We've seen attack articles and short rationales pile up for months with absolutely nothing done to refute them. Heck, the only action we've seen from the company is the replacement of Hakan as CEO with no explanation as to why.
I'm holding my shares because I can't afford to sell and stomach the almost total loss. To be honest at this point I'm numb to the price action of the stock. I wake up every day expecting to see red and I've stopped checking my investment account with my MNKD holdings. I've noticed that I'm considerably happier that way. I'll just sit around and hope (since we don't have much else) that there are positive developments. Heck, I'll take ANY developments to break the silence. I think January 2016 gives us some clarity with it being the first opportunity for one partner to terminate the agreement. I'll cling to the belief that Afrezza works, and that maintain my hope that it doesn't turn out to be a repeat of prior failed inhaled insulins before it.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 13:38:06 GMT -5
With the price action as of late, it doesn't look like there is a bottom, unless it's zero. The stock as lost roughly 85% of its value in a year and a half more or less. I'd say MNKDs patents and IP for Afrezza/TS are worth more than the current valuation, but clearly that doesn't matter to the market. The stock will continue to free fall until some announcement is made that indicates that the company isn't on life support. For some time now, neither MNKD nor SNY has done anything to combat that idea and we'll all be waiting until they do. Perception is reality and the perception is that the company is in dire straights. We've seen attack articles and short rationales pile up for months with absolutely nothing done to refute them. Heck, the only action we've seen from the company is the replacement of Hakan as CEO with no explanation as to why. I'm holding my shares because I can't afford to sell and stomach the almost total loss. To be honest at this point I'm numb to the price action of the stock. I wake up every day expecting to see red and I've stopped checking my investment account with my MNKD holdings. I've noticed that I'm considerably happier that way. I'll just sit around and hope (since we don't have much else) that there are positive developments. Heck, I'll take ANY developments to break the silence. I think January 2016 gives us some clarity with it being the first opportunity for one partner to terminate the agreement. I'll cling to the belief that Afrezza works, and that maintain my hope that it doesn't turn out to be a repeat of prior failed inhaled insulins before it. You and I seem to be in agreement and in the same boat. Unfortunately, I can't seem to stay away and checking the stock is pretty much the first thing I do in the morning (I actually have a automated update sent to me when my alarm goes off... I know, I'm sick). The last bit of optimism I hold is the fact that MNKD has to be worth more than ZERO even though that's seemingly where we are heading. Al would put the company up for auction before BK and you'd think between the patents and tax loss carryover, we'd have to be worth at least $500mil?!
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Post by silentknight on Dec 7, 2015 13:59:44 GMT -5
I find myself in the same mindset as you and we are likely in the same financial condition. I was averaging down for a while and current sit in the mid $4 range, but even then, the loss is staggering.
It's impossible to know the future, but if things don't work out, this has to be one of the worst debacles in a drug launch that I can think of. To have a revolutionary FDA approved product and have it sputter and fail immediately out of the gate is beyond frustrating. If it happens, it will be for a multitude of factors but due in large part to the piss-poor decisions made by the company management, in my opinion. If it takes off and we see the success that we think it deserves, then I'll be happy to forgive them for the current situation and all the stress associated with it. Like I said, I think and believe that next month tells us something. Either way, investors need answers and soon.
If BK were to happen and Al sold for 500 million, that would put the PPS at just over $1 and almost everyone involved takes a massive loss, AL included. I'd rather he take it private at that point. If it's down to $1 per share, I'd rather lose it all than recover the peanuts that would be left after that huge of a loss after selling. We aren't that far away from that point currently. Crazy.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 7, 2015 14:12:43 GMT -5
I can't guess where the bottom is but someone is going to get a quick double off the bottom! IMO
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Post by jacobjoshua29 on Dec 7, 2015 14:17:16 GMT -5
It will keep going down until management gives out guidance. Boy.. they have some explaining to do.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 7, 2015 14:20:45 GMT -5
I think it at some point hits bottom and starts going up and we don't know why. And are still in the dark for awhile. GL all!
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Post by goyocafe on Dec 7, 2015 14:46:44 GMT -5
I find myself in the same mindset as you and we are likely in the same financial condition. I was averaging down for a while and current sit in the mid $4 range, but even then, the loss is staggering. It's impossible to know the future, but if things don't work out, this has to be one of the worst debacles in a drug launch that I can think of. To have a revolutionary FDA approved product and have it sputter and fail immediately out of the gate is beyond frustrating. If it happens, it will be for a multitude of factors but due in large part to the piss-poor decisions made by the company management, in my opinion. If it takes off and we see the success that we think it deserves, then I'll be happy to forgive them for the current situation and all the stress associated with it. Like I said, I think and believe that next month tells us something. Either way, investors need answers and soon. If BK were to happen and Al sold for 500 million, that would put the PPS at just over $1 and almost everyone involved takes a massive loss, AL included. I'd rather he take it private at that point. If it's down to $1 per share, I'd rather lose it all than recover the peanuts that would be left after that huge of a loss after selling. We aren't that far away from that point currently. Crazy. Don't forget the FDA and their unwillingness to see this drug/technology for what it truly is. They basically approved Afrezza and then put handcuffs on it.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 14:51:20 GMT -5
I can't guess where the bottom is but someone is going to get a quick double off the bottom! IMO This may be true but when we've seen this happen in the past (as we have many times) it tends to be short-lived before hitting new 52wk lows again...
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Post by longinvstr on Dec 7, 2015 14:53:48 GMT -5
Discussion in the past on this topic has been fragmented across many threads - so considering where we are right now with the bottom falling out on us - based on the knowns [as opposed to future unknowns], where is the basement bottom? If I remember correctly MNKD has a significant tax loss carryover which can be realized by a future suitor, given this fact alone (I don't remember the exact number, hoping someone will chime in(?)) what would we be worth on the auction block? I'll throw a dart in the dark but not at price, just direction I think prospects for better news favors the long position in Jan. Now, I suspect a game of hand on the hot-plate is played for retail shorts trying to max cover point vs the inevitable tax loss selling. FWIW (not much), I think we see the low this week. WS is not composed of courteous folk. They'll be a competition to be first out the door & I think a short line forms this week. Not calling a squeeze, just a change of direction.
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Post by jeremg on Dec 7, 2015 15:12:53 GMT -5
longinvstr I don't doubt we will see a change in directionality at some point in the near future, we can't sustain losing -5% day for very long before the theoretical ZERO. But for this change in directionality to be more than just a bounce as we've seen so many times before, we will need it to come on the heels of a positive catalyst or material event. My query with this post is if it is to be the case that we see nothing positive happen and we follow this same trajectory, what is MNKD fundamentally worth up for auction? If we were able to establish it is worth $700mil, then there would be no reason to sell at this point and significantly more of a reason to hold knowing that if all else fails Al could squeeze this minimum value out of it. So what is it worth, I'm still left pondering.
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Post by stevil on Dec 7, 2015 15:20:19 GMT -5
I find myself in the same mindset as you and we are likely in the same financial condition. I was averaging down for a while and current sit in the mid $4 range, but even then, the loss is staggering. It's impossible to know the future, but if things don't work out, this has to be one of the worst debacles in a drug launch that I can think of. To have a revolutionary FDA approved product and have it sputter and fail immediately out of the gate is beyond frustrating. If it happens, it will be for a multitude of factors but due in large part to the piss-poor decisions made by the company management, in my opinion. If it takes off and we see the success that we think it deserves, then I'll be happy to forgive them for the current situation and all the stress associated with it. Like I said, I think and believe that next month tells us something. Either way, investors need answers and soon. If BK were to happen and Al sold for 500 million, that would put the PPS at just over $1 and almost everyone involved takes a massive loss, AL included. I'd rather he take it private at that point. If it's down to $1 per share, I'd rather lose it all than recover the peanuts that would be left after that huge of a loss after selling. We aren't that far away from that point currently. Crazy. My beef with management isn't over Afrezza- it's with not diluting in the summer (when they should have had a better feel for SNY's plan) and not having the foresight to see what's happening now. If they didn't have the money to fund another TS application launch, or there wasn't a partner waiting in the wings (although maybe there was?) they should have raised money when we were at our peak in summer. They should have known, or at the very least, planned on Afrezza not launching out of the gate. That they didn't is inexcusable. I don't give management any beef over Afrezza. I think the lack of success rests solely on SNY. I think MNKD has done everything in their power to support it.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 7, 2015 15:39:44 GMT -5
Would our all time previous low be some indication of the ultimate floor while we still have a quarter or two of operating cash?
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Post by silentknight on Dec 7, 2015 15:40:51 GMT -5
I find myself in the same mindset as you and we are likely in the same financial condition. I was averaging down for a while and current sit in the mid $4 range, but even then, the loss is staggering. It's impossible to know the future, but if things don't work out, this has to be one of the worst debacles in a drug launch that I can think of. To have a revolutionary FDA approved product and have it sputter and fail immediately out of the gate is beyond frustrating. If it happens, it will be for a multitude of factors but due in large part to the piss-poor decisions made by the company management, in my opinion. If it takes off and we see the success that we think it deserves, then I'll be happy to forgive them for the current situation and all the stress associated with it. Like I said, I think and believe that next month tells us something. Either way, investors need answers and soon. If BK were to happen and Al sold for 500 million, that would put the PPS at just over $1 and almost everyone involved takes a massive loss, AL included. I'd rather he take it private at that point. If it's down to $1 per share, I'd rather lose it all than recover the peanuts that would be left after that huge of a loss after selling. We aren't that far away from that point currently. Crazy. My beef with management isn't over Afrezza- it's with not diluting in the summer (when they should have had a better feel for SNY's plan) and not having the foresight to see what's happening now. If they didn't have the money to fund another TS application launch, or there wasn't a partner waiting in the wings (although maybe there was?) they should have raised money when we were at our peak in summer. They should have known, or at the very least, planned on Afrezza not launching out of the gate. That they didn't is inexcusable. I don't give management any beef over Afrezza. I think the lack of success rests solely on SNY. I think MNKD has done everything in their power to support it. Agreed on your dilution points. On the Afrezza side, I don't take issue with the sales, only with their decision on the terms of the partnership they are now in with SNY. As others have posted, the contract heavily favors SNY in almost every aspect and we are now in a position where MNKD would be hard pressed to remedy perceived problem areas even if they wanted to. They are responsible for that. Obviously MNKD supports their product, but their hands are tied in what they can do for it, save manufacture it for SNY. Not a good position to be in when sales are bad and everything is perceived to be floundering as we see daily in the market action and supporting hit pieces. Hind sight is always 20/20, but I really wish I'd went short after the approval. Riding this from 11 to 1 and change, with a few stops in between to cover could have set me for life.
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Post by gamblerjag on Dec 7, 2015 15:46:21 GMT -5
Mnholdem.. for whatever reason I wasn't able to see a reply icon next to your last post so posting here. It would be great to believe Al is still adamant about Afrezza and the video that we've all seen this last week shows that.. however, that video is from June. Have we seen anything from Al, especially since Hakam's departure that shows he is still that adamant. not saying he's not but he needs to show us how much he still believes in this product without overstepping .. GL.
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