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Post by mdcenter61 on Dec 9, 2015 16:38:42 GMT -5
If Al wants to take this private, my understanding is that he will require 90% of shares tendered to him. Can anyone validate this? Perhaps Al and his buddies, or Al in addition to a very wise PE firm pool their funds and take it private!
At this price point, who knows? Al could throw his shares (40%) in with another equity partner who would tender an offer for the remaining 60%. If the new partner tendered a $5 share offer, would enough sell (total price around $1.4 billion)? would enough sell at $10 per share (total of around $2.8 billion for 60%). It would be an opportune time given the weariness with this stock. I would have some disappointment but quite candidly there would be a relief factor as well! Nevermore into Biotech for this lad.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 9, 2015 16:57:12 GMT -5
Yes, I am done with biotech too. I will see this one through because there are to many unexplained things and, honestly, even if curiosity killed the cat (sorry for that since I know cats are very well loved in this board), I am too curious to find out, but once I am done with this ordeal it will be a long long time before I venture again into Biotech. Of course I have said the same before and here I am. This takes the cake though, I have never seen a stock acting like this, I have never seen so much mystery surrounding every single aspect of a company, I have never seen a product that works so well, being pushed into the market in such a non focused way. It truly feels like Sanofi is just testing the waters and waiting, but waiting for what? I am sad and angry, confused and in despair, numb, often hopeful for a few seconds here and there, and everything else in between. It is probably pathetic and it makes me sound like a teenager in love, but it is what it is.
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Post by kball on Dec 9, 2015 17:51:20 GMT -5
Congrats to those only done with biotech.
I may be done with food, clothing, shelter and healthcare
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Post by bradleysbest on Dec 9, 2015 18:01:45 GMT -5
Damn Kball..... I will light a candle for you tonite!
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 9, 2015 18:02:22 GMT -5
Congrats to those only done with biotech. I may be done with food, clothing, shelter and healthcare Let's hope it will not come to that. At this point, with the gut wrenching feeling, it is hard to see any other outcomes, but let's not forget we have no news and that in biotech things can change direction rather suddenly. Not much confort, I know, but it is what it is. Cheers mate.
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Post by bioexec25 on Dec 9, 2015 18:19:31 GMT -5
Nice one kball. I'll bring the coffee to the soup line, I'm practically there as well.
I don't have any stats to bare this out, but it is investments like Mnkd that show why retailers rarely combine any sizable volume (relative I know) holding thru extreme up and downs over long periods of time, with bounces and double take downs, then radical take and hold downs for months, and then finally back up big and often up very big. Only the extremely large money can afford to do this consistently and ride out the entire curve especially as the timing is all over the map. If these large investors are the "house" then the analogy fits that house usually wins, LB notwithstanding. All I know is it takes a lot of money to make a lot of money, the very very rare large retail timing play notwithstanding.
Stating the obvious for many here, but this is yet another example. For those still long, I believe this is about to finally flip and the profits will be large (per capita) as they should be. Just looking at the the entries by tutes were up at $3-$4-$5. They must be about ready to flip the switch and ride this up as they harmonize with a catalyst, which call me cynical, but believe they have information on that we don't have. Info is power, money is power, time to return is power. But with all of that, this is one of the most unique opportunities I've seen in a long time. Many financially oriented power brokers have this wrong. No way this fails because of that. Not this one. It has a solid first year of patient real world success, and has a ginormous potential patient base worldwide. This for Afrezza, TS apps notwithstanding. Sometimes it is useful to repeat some obvious things during these trying times. Maybe I depressed more than inspire, guess it's all relative. :-)
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Post by jimo on Dec 9, 2015 18:25:51 GMT -5
I like your perspective & reasoning Bioex
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Dec 9, 2015 18:25:49 GMT -5
Nice one kball. I'll bring the coffee to the soup line, I'm practically there as well. I don't have any stats to bare this out, but it is investments like Mnkd that show why retailers rarely combine any sizable volume (relative I know) holding thru extreme up and downs over long periods of time, with bounces and double take downs, then radical take and hold downs for months, and then finally back up big and often up very big. Only the extremely large money can afford to do this consistently and ride out the entire curve especially as the timing is all over the map. If these large investors are the "house" then the analogy fits that house usually wins, LB notwithstanding. All I know is it takes a lot of money to make a lot of money, the very very rare large retail timing play notwithstanding. Stating the obvious for many here, but this is yet another example. For those still long, I believe this is about to finally flip and the profits will be large (per capita) as they should be. Just looking at the the entries by tutes were up at $3-$4-$5. They must be about ready to flip the switch and ride this up as they harmonize with a catalyst, which call me cynical, but believe they have information on that we don't have. Info is power, money is power, time to return is power. But with all of that, this is one of the most unique opportunities I've seen in a long time. Many financially oriented power brokers have this wrong. No way this fails because of that. Not this one. It has a solid first year of patient real world success, and has a ginormous potential patient base worldwide. This for Afrezza, TS apps notwithstanding. Sometimes it is useful to repeat some obvious things during these trying times. Maybe I depressed more than inspire, guess it's all relative. :-) So, Biotexec25, you are the little nagging voice I've been constantly hearing in my head... If you are not, you both really think alike.
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Post by kball on Dec 9, 2015 18:32:33 GMT -5
Catalyst guesses please?
TV starting in January for those of us who believe and value Saxcmann. So lets start there but thats not nearly enough imo
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Post by compound26 on Dec 9, 2015 18:49:28 GMT -5
Catalyst guesses please? TV starting in January for those of us who believe and value Saxcmann. So lets start there but thats not nearly enough imo Didn't you also mentioned that Saxcmann was saying there is $25 million milestone tied to the San Diego event? If so, that will beef up the balance sheet to some degree. I know Hakan mentioned the milestone was tied to some development efforts. But not sure what it is. Others have said that it was related to certification of Sanofi insulin.
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Post by goyocafe on Dec 9, 2015 18:50:33 GMT -5
Catalyst guesses please? TV starting in January for those of us who believe and value Saxcmann. So lets start there but thats not nearly enough imo Maybe just SNY making a statement (positive) would be enough. Second to that, a buy in.
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Post by rvc on Dec 9, 2015 18:59:47 GMT -5
Sure sounds like we're down to a 'wing and a prayer'. The days of 'an embarrassment of riches' are long gone, I'm afraid. Hate to say it, but Haken might have been smart to be the first one out the door. After SNY ends the relationship, and to me, all signs point to it, I might jump in again as I think afrezza will find a niche and therefore has some value. At this point, however, I have no faith in the TS platform, other than Afrezza.
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Post by cjc04 on Dec 9, 2015 19:00:44 GMT -5
Catalyst guesses please? TV starting in January for those of us who believe and value Saxcmann. So lets start there but thats not nearly enough imo I think it's still too soon for TV ads,,,, but I will say this, for the most part barely anyone knows about Afrezza. My wife is type 1 and is fed up with being a diabetic. The stress of highs, the fear, loss of sleep & panic that comes with lowes, and all the injections. She's finally on the path to Aftezza. Endo, barely knew anything. Spiro test is done, they've never heard of it. She called CVS, pharmacist never heard of it. Called the ins co, it's covered $80 for 3 months (awesome, BUT there's a PA attached so we'll see how much of a fight we have) but the ins agent never heard of it....... SO,,, I would say TV ads could bring a lot of awareness.
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Post by kdaddyfresh2000 on Dec 9, 2015 19:03:06 GMT -5
Catalyst guesses please? TV starting in January for those of us who believe and value Saxcmann. So lets start there but thats not nearly enough imo [ I believe him. I just worry it will be another non-advertisement advertisement from Sanofi of Afrezza. Have you seen their Twitter ads?! 80% warnings in mind-numbing legalese and some people holding the inhaler without actually using it. I get the CYA aspect, but the ads thus far, to me, are passive-aggressive in their engineered ineffectiveness.
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Post by rvc on Dec 9, 2015 19:06:53 GMT -5
My hunch is that Matt knows just about everything since he has pretty much been a pseudo CEO for the past year and frankly, I'm expecting the worst in the next few weeks.
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