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Post by lakers on Dec 10, 2015 3:11:00 GMT -5
Matt was right. It's a common practice to postpone the good news announcement until a new CEO is on board, then let him announce the good news to establish a credibility beachhead for him before SH and investment community. It looks like mgmt is obligated to keep Hakan's promise. They have to to avoid litigation.
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Post by mnkdnut on Dec 10, 2015 3:44:11 GMT -5
Well, of all the things that MNKD could announce, a new CEO along with some piggybacked announcement that wasn't strong enough to stand on its own, is not at the top of my list (but I'll take anything positive at this point). What I'd really like to hear is: SNY is starting the 8,000 patient lung study they've been negotiating with FDA. This would enable thousands of additional patients to start getting treatment with little-to-no insurance or prescriber hurdles, and done under a supervised protocol. These patients would then demonstrate to their doctors how A really works, and those doctors can then start influencing their peers. Something needs to happen to open up the completely clogged patient pipeline! The lung study needs to be done anyway - the expense can be delayed but it can't be avoided. If SNY is really clever, they can figure out how to fold in an outcomes study (would need a limited RAA control arm) to get the hard data insurance companies need to open up coverage. It's a long, hard and expensive road, but doable with a committed partner. Man up, SNY, or just get out of the darn way already.
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Post by cathode on Dec 10, 2015 3:53:11 GMT -5
mnkdnut, I too would like to hear about SNY starting the long-term safety trials. An argument that I have seen around and put forth myself is that they are holding off on starting it because they will be seeking input from the EMA on the study design.
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Post by sf1981 on Dec 10, 2015 7:21:02 GMT -5
mnkdnut , I too would like to hear about SNY starting the long-term safety trials. An argument that I have seen around and put forth myself is that they are holding off on starting it because they will be seeking input from the EMA on the study design. Good point. The long-term safety trial represents such a big expense for SNY, that starting it will be the only really credible signal of commitment to Afrezza. However, they have until April 2016 to agree on protocol, according to Hakan in the November call, and given that these things are difficult operationally, we should not expect any material news on this front until probably at the earliest February, maybe even not until May at the MNKD investor call. As for the San Diego user meeting and DTC measures, Afrezza website etc, the people deciding on these measures are probably miles away from the real decision-makers at the top, so this does not give us more than a slight hint in terms of how deeply SNY is committed. Matt's e-mail is a little ridiculous, in my view. It is just a big nothing. No sense in parsing it any further... If there were real good news, MNKD would have to disclose immediately. While the near term looks very gloomy, we all should remember this: establishing disruptive innovation takes patience and persistence. SNY has to know this - they must have studied the Exubera debacle intensively. So expecting them to pull a Pfizer here in the next couple of months seems a little too simple, in my view. I am betting against it. In my view, since the market is already pricing in a near-full debacle for MNKD, the absence of bad news early in the year is all that it might need to turn the share price around eventually.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Dec 10, 2015 10:10:19 GMT -5
We know the technology is life changing, however, the ultimate global deployment of the solution for diabetic's can be independent of whether or not Mannkind is involved. As a result, our investment can be dissolved without impacting delivery of Afrezza to patients. Separating those two realities is critical to determing what needs to happen at Mannkind if we are to be successful investors regardless of how successful Afrezza will ultimately become with the fortunate pharma.
What is growing on me is that Mannkind should sell their remaining interest in Afrezza to Sanofi for say $1 to $2 Billion representing a $3 to $5 Billion valuation for it. Put that in company coffers and try to develop the TS franchise. Takes away all debt. Cash value alone takes you to $4 or $5 bucks and then they can get the optimistic biotech valuation on what the next TS application would be.
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Post by liane on Dec 10, 2015 10:16:57 GMT -5
No way do I want them to sell off Afrezza. This has the potential to be the biggest drug ever - and I'm not pumping.
BTW - 2500 more shares not available for covering shorts!
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 10, 2015 10:21:17 GMT -5
No way do I want them to sell off Afrezza. This has the potential to be the biggest drug ever - and I'm not pumping. Especially with the new CGM technology, I'll bet... not a doctor myself but it seems that lack of blood glucose control might cause a lot of issues during aging, controlling it might mitigate many chronic health issues.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2015 10:25:47 GMT -5
No way do I want them to sell off Afrezza. This has the potential to be the biggest drug ever - and I'm not pumping. BTW - 2500 more shares not available for covering shorts! do u hold them in cash account? only if you hold them in cash account, they might not be available... this is what is making crooks nervous.. retail holders are not giving up for them to scoop up
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Post by liane on Dec 10, 2015 10:28:12 GMT -5
They are in my Roth which is non-marginable.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Dec 10, 2015 10:31:26 GMT -5
No way do I want them to sell off Afrezza. This has the potential to be the biggest drug ever - and I'm not pumping. BTW - 2500 more shares not available for covering shorts! I would agree holding on to Afrezza is the best outcome. The problem is having enough cash to weather the slow rollout so you don't ultimately give it to Sanofi on the courthouse steps with all the common shareholders on the outside looking in.
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Post by ezrasfund on Dec 10, 2015 10:34:16 GMT -5
Afrezza does have the potential to be the biggest drug ever. MNKD just does not have enough cash to make it happen. It is not uncommon for an excellent project to fail because of insufficient capital, and for that project to be picked up on the cheap by someone who then makes it a huge success. It is just hard for people to realize that several billion dollars is insufficient capital. And this doesn't include the vast sales infrastructure that SNY is providing.
Maybe a re-reading of Steinbeck's "The Pearl" would be helpful. I had previously suggested "There Will Be Blood" but in that story the protagonist prevails, so take your choice.
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Post by mdcenter61 on Dec 10, 2015 10:37:55 GMT -5
No way do I want them to sell off Afrezza. This has the potential to be the biggest drug ever - and I'm not pumping. BTW - 2500 more shares not available for covering shorts!
Outstanding, Liane! Going through the couch cushions myself......hmmm, a venti coffee or 4 more shares of Mannkind, lol! I agree with you wholeheartedly!
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Post by liane on Dec 10, 2015 10:44:16 GMT -5
Yeah, it's such a pain to get money in to my Roth - have put it into an IRA 1st and then convert... takes time.
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Post by esstan2001 on Dec 10, 2015 11:29:41 GMT -5
No way do I want them to sell off Afrezza. This has the potential to be the biggest drug ever - and I'm not pumping. BTW - 2500 more shares not available for covering shorts!
Outstanding, Liane! Going through the couch cushions myself......hmmm, a venti coffee or 4 more shares of Mannkind, lol! I agree with you wholeheartedly!
After thinking about this a lot yesterday, I too went back to the well for some more this AM
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Post by kball on Dec 10, 2015 11:41:53 GMT -5
Yeah, it's such a pain to get money in to my Roth - have put it into an IRA 1st and then convert... takes time. All relative though. Compared to moderating here and being a shareholder... a distant 3rd? (I have mnkd spread across 3 accounts including Roth)
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