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Post by mssciguy on Dec 21, 2015 19:08:12 GMT -5
bill at this point, if there is no information given by the company in the next few weeks ahead, and weather permitting, I'm driving to Danbury, peacefully, just to drive past the place in the morning and again in the evening, just to make sure the lights are on, and cars are in the parking lot. The silence is creepy. I still say Danbury is in Pfizer's back yard. Just sell the Afrezza to Pfizer and get done with it.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 21, 2015 19:26:22 GMT -5
Status quo, drip, drip, drip... This is just like being lost in the desert and hallucinating over mirage after mirage. Water, we need water! Wait, I see some camel shit, but I'm no bear grylls, Just shoot me please! LMAO x2 - Good one!!! |
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Post by lakers on Dec 21, 2015 19:29:48 GMT -5
The new CEO news is very close. $1.50 stock option and/or RSU is very attractive to him, good upside potential. The company normally lets the new CEO announce good news to build up his capital of credibility to Wall St and SH.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 21, 2015 19:36:04 GMT -5
The new CEO news is very close. $1.50 stock option and/or RSU is very attractive to him, good upside potential. The company normally lets the new CEO announce good news to build up his capital of credibility to Wall St and SH. a-hem!!!! After all we've been through, why not some $1.50 options for shareholders of record of say, Dec. 1st, or Nov 1st, or Oct 1st, you get the idea... Look at the long term chart. The volume weighted moving average is over four bucks, way over that. I say, $10 stock options payable in 2019 !!!! |
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Post by bill on Dec 21, 2015 19:42:36 GMT -5
The new CEO news is very close. $1.50 stock option and/or RSU is very attractive to him, good upside potential. The company normally lets the new CEO announce good news to build up his capital of credibility to Wall St and SH. Depending on who it is what he can say that would be great. The lack of overt support from SNY is troubling, as is MNKD's inability to close a TS partnership. Neither should be this hard to accomplish. You'd think if both parties wanted a partnership, they'd find some way to compromise so that both sides felt they had an acceptable deal. I just hope that we're not in one of these deadly embrace scenarios with SNY unwilling to make a deal because they think they'll get a better one as MNKD's financial situation deteriorates, and their prospective TS partners are unwilling to make a deal because they also believe they'll get a better one as MNKD's financial situation deteriorates. As long as SNY and the TS partners are unwilling to deal, it would seem that indeed MNKD's financial situation will deteriorate. My best hope is that we know Al and Matt are smart guys. The should clearly understand the dynamic and have some plan to break the logjam other than hoping and waiting for something to change. Unfortunately, we're just idle bystanders. |
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Post by tommix321 on Dec 22, 2015 1:37:26 GMT -5
1. Sanofi partnership remains STRONG, going full tilt in 1Q16. I unequivocally believe the death of the partnership has been greatly exaggerated. You can stop doubting it now. For non-believers, you can write off for tax now if it makes you sleep better. But if you are still in, absolutely don't lose sleep over it. 2. Pain mgmt partnership being guided actively by CMO 3. Questions on cash on balance sheet will be addressed in 4Q15 Feb ER CC(had a typo). 4. New CEO most likely TBA 1Q16. 5. PAH: Working on selecting an optimal, commercially viable API "Sanofi partnership remains STRONG..."? Evidence? Although I suppose one could argue it couldn't get any weaker unless they actually cancelled the contract. "...being guided actively..."? Evidence? And what does "actively" mean exactly? It's not like anyone could do it "inactively." "Questions on cash on balance sheet..."? That's pretty much required by the SEC with the filing of the 10-Q. "New CEO most likely TBA 1Q16." Evidence? Even if one is appointed, what can anyone expect him/her to do with MNKD at this point? A bit like the giving someone the helm of the Titanic and saying, "fix this." "PAH: Working on selecting..."? Evidence? And even if they do select one, how will they fund development? Please don't answer, "partner." |
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Post by jefferson on Dec 22, 2015 3:03:32 GMT -5
1. Sanofi partnership remains STRONG, going full tilt in 1Q16. I unequivocally believe the death of the partnership has been greatly exaggerated. You can stop doubting it now. For non-believers, you can write off for tax now if it makes you sleep better. But if you are still in, absolutely don't lose sleep over it. 2. Pain mgmt partnership being guided actively by CMO 3. Questions on cash on balance sheet will be addressed in 4Q15 Feb ER CC(had a typo). 4. New CEO most likely TBA 1Q16. 5. PAH: Working on selecting an optimal, commercially viable API "Sanofi partnership remains STRONG..."? Evidence? Although I suppose one could argue it couldn't get any weaker unless they actually cancelled the contract. "...being guided actively..."? Evidence? And what does "actively" mean exactly? It's not like anyone could do it "inactively." "Questions on cash on balance sheet..."? That's pretty much required by the SEC with the filing of the 10-Q. "New CEO most likely TBA 1Q16." Evidence? Even if one is appointed, what can anyone expect him/her to do with MNKD at this point? A bit like the giving someone the helm of the Titanic and saying, "fix this." "PAH: Working on selecting..."? Evidence? And even if they do select one, how will they fund development? Please don't answer, "partner." Lakers has more credibility on this board than you. |
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Post by trondisc on Dec 22, 2015 4:59:00 GMT -5
bill at this point, if there is no information given by the company in the next few weeks ahead, and weather permitting, I'm driving to Danbury, peacefully, just to drive past the place in the morning and again in the evening, just to make sure the lights are on, and cars are in the parking lot. The silence is creepy. I still say Danbury is in Pfizer's back yard. Just sell the Afrezza to Pfizer and get done with it. EXACTLY mssciguy. I don't care to know at this point if Sanofi supports Afrezza (they still have only one foot invested in Afrezza IMO) or not. I'm more freaked out why we Longs haven't heard a murmur from any other interest shown by a mid and/or large cap bio-pharma/etc., for MannKind? I feel like this company is truly on auto-pilot as symbolically displayed by Al Mann himself. Does MannKind have a backup plan/play behind Sanofi? This is the real concern. FWIW, there is no way in HELL Sanofi was that smart to have negotiated a guaranteed buyout/contract premium 1 or 2 years in advance to save (some) money. I would laugh so hard if MannKind's PPS ever rocketed northward, not from taking personal profits, but from Sanofi's idiocy of paying more by waiting later. SIDENOTE: thanks Lakers. Information is priceless and that is what you are. |
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 22, 2015 8:15:43 GMT -5
FYI FACTOID:
According to a new market report published by Transparency Market Research “Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH) Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast 2014 - 2020,” the global PAH market was valued at USD 4.04 billion in 2013 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2014 to 2020, to reach an estimated value of USD 5.19 billion in 2020.
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MannKind Corporation has generally identified the first two areas of medicine in their pipeline:
- Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension (PAH)
- Pain
In my research, I've noticed that the industry tends to separate migraine into its own category. That is, investors should not automatically assume that MannKind's development of a Technosphere pain medication is for the migraine market.
In the past, Al Mann has indicated that, in addition to insulin, he wanted to develop an inhalable med that could relieve migraine symptoms in minutes. This was largely believed to be of importance to Al because his wife, Claudia, has suffered from migraines for many years. However, the specialists that MannKind hired last year to help evaluate and plan their pipeline developments may have prioritized things a little differently, placing opiode-type chronic pain relief as a better market candidate than the development of a triptan-class drug for migraine.
Migraine pipeline development may have been put on hold due to the recent problems currently facing SunPharma in India, who is the predominant manufacturer of generic sumitriptan, but whose India plants have recently been rejected by the FDA, effectively preventing any of their drugs from entering the USA until they have satisfied FDA manufacturing requirements.
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Post by me on Dec 22, 2015 9:55:35 GMT -5
1. Sanofi partnership remains STRONG, going full tilt in 1Q16. I unequivocally believe the death of the partnership has been greatly exaggerated. You can stop doubting it now. For non-believers, you can write off for tax now if it makes you sleep better. But if you are still in, absolutely don't lose sleep over it. 2. Pain mgmt partnership being guided actively by CMO 3. Questions on cash on balance sheet will be addressed in 4Q15 Feb ER CC(had a typo). 4. New CEO most likely TBA 1Q16. 5. PAH: Working on selecting an optimal, commercially viable API Regarding your items. I hate to be so negative, but... #1 is not good. A strong SNY partnership means nothing if it doesn't produce anything, and no one knows it exists. Completely unfair of MNKD to claim a strong partnership and then have SNY / MNKD hide any evidence of its existence from investors. How can one have a STRONG partnership with SNY when they go out of their way to ignore MNKD and Afrezza's existence whenever possible? If the partnership is strong, why can't MNKD get SNY to say just that! #2 is not good. MNKD omitted any mention of pain management during the last CC. At the time it could have meant that pain management was dead, or in yet another black out because of negotiations. Now it's sounds like it's neither, but we've got the CMO trying to close a partnership agreement. Knowing he's working it is nice, but where is any evidence that the CMO is going to be any more successful than Hakan? How much more time does MNKD need? How much more time should be spent trying to close a partnership they haven't been able to close for more than year? #3 is not good. It's hard to see how it can be to MNKD's advantage to hide the current cash on balance sheet. If the cash is not more than what we already know about, there's no change--why hide the status? If the cash is in excess of what we know about then that would be good news worth sharing. Why does everything have to be a mystery? #4. is not good. Earlier Matt was hopeful we'd have a new CEO before Christmas. Now, it's maybe 1Q16. That's a three to four month delay. What does that mean. I guess it's clear that none of the incumbents are likely to become the next CEO, and they've got to complete an external search. It's hard for me to believe that anyone worth having would want to be CEO under the circumstances just outlined. Depleting cash, no TS partnerships, and an Afrezza partnership that is not creating any revenue, but instead is creating debt. Presiding over a failing company is not something most prospective CEOs get excited about. #5. is not good. Does this mean that the last 10 year's of work on this API was in vain and MNKD's starting all over again. If that's the case, why bother. How can there be enough cash to start all over with the selection of a new API? It seems to me like the wheels have fallen off the MNKD wagon, and there's no sign of a repairman in sight. SNY is committed to Afrezza but that partnership will be increasing MNKD's debt not revenue for the foreseeable future. MNKD isn't likely to have a new CEO or TS partnership for the next several months, and their cash situation is being concealed from all parties for reasons unknown. I'm very bullish on Afrezza, but I'm having a really hard time understanding why one should expect that MNKD can solve it's CEO, TS partnership, and cash situations any better over the next quarter than they have over the last 18 months. We got some information that suggested some of these items would be completed before Christmas. Now, it's maybe we'll see progress over the next few months. What am I missing? I want to be positive, but lakers usually reliable information doesn't seem to include very much in the way of good news. Wow, what are the conditions for you to turn bearish?! |
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Post by bill on Dec 22, 2015 10:38:24 GMT -5
lakers Regarding your items. I hate to be so negative, but... #1 is not good. A strong SNY partnership means nothing if it doesn't produce anything, and no one knows it exists. Completely unfair of MNKD to claim a strong partnership and then have SNY / MNKD hide any evidence of its existence from investors. How can one have a STRONG partnership with SNY when they go out of their way to ignore MNKD and Afrezza's existence whenever possible? If the partnership is strong, why can't MNKD get SNY to say just that! #2 is not good. MNKD omitted any mention of pain management during the last CC. At the time it could have meant that pain management was dead, or in yet another black out because of negotiations. Now it's sounds like it's neither, but we've got the CMO trying to close a partnership agreement. Knowing he's working it is nice, but where is any evidence that the CMO is going to be any more successful than Hakan? How much more time does MNKD need? How much more time should be spent trying to close a partnership they haven't been able to close for more than year? #3 is not good. It's hard to see how it can be to MNKD's advantage to hide the current cash on balance sheet. If the cash is not more than what we already know about, there's no change--why hide the status? If the cash is in excess of what we know about then that would be good news worth sharing. Why does everything have to be a mystery? #4. is not good. Earlier Matt was hopeful we'd have a new CEO before Christmas. Now, it's maybe 1Q16. That's a three to four month delay. What does that mean. I guess it's clear that none of the incumbents are likely to become the next CEO, and they've got to complete an external search. It's hard for me to believe that anyone worth having would want to be CEO under the circumstances just outlined. Depleting cash, no TS partnerships, and an Afrezza partnership that is not creating any revenue, but instead is creating debt. Presiding over a failing company is not something most prospective CEOs get excited about. #5. is not good. Does this mean that the last 10 year's of work on this API was in vain and MNKD's starting all over again. If that's the case, why bother. How can there be enough cash to start all over with the selection of a new API? It seems to me like the wheels have fallen off the MNKD wagon, and there's no sign of a repairman in sight. SNY is committed to Afrezza but that partnership will be increasing MNKD's debt not revenue for the foreseeable future. MNKD isn't likely to have a new CEO or TS partnership for the next several months, and their cash situation is being concealed from all parties for reasons unknown. I'm very bullish on Afrezza, but I'm having a really hard time understanding why one should expect that MNKD can solve it's CEO, TS partnership, and cash situations any better over the next quarter than they have over the last 18 months. We got some information that suggested some of these items would be completed before Christmas. Now, it's maybe we'll see progress over the next few months. What am I missing? I want to be positive, but lakers usually reliable information doesn't seem to include very much in the way of good news. Wow, what are the conditions for you to turn bearish?! What's got me concerned is that we had information suggesting that many of the items in lakers post might have been resolved before Christmas. Now it seems that nothing will be settled for months to come. Maybe lots of activity within MNKD, but a scarcity of results. I wouldn't be troubled by much of it except that MNKD's been unwilling or unable to provide investors with clarity on its financial posture. Even with SNY getting more aggressive with its Afrezza marketing, that initiative will not be profitable for MNKD for most / all of 2016. If TS partnerships are problematic then MNKD's financial health becomes the major issue. I still suspect that MNKD has an answer to the financial situation, but it's absolutely infuriating to me that they hint of good things to come, deliver nothing, hide everything, and then provide further hints that maybe some things will become clearer in maybe another quarter. Whoever dreamed up the partnership agreement and CTO should be shot--Greenhill?. It's completely crippled MNKD and put an impossibly huge roadblock in front of investors who want to due their due diligence. It's hard for me to believe that Al and Matt can't say something. You'd think they'd at least put out a PR wishing investors happy holidays! I also believe that SNY is more than happy to take advantage of MNKD's situation by concealing as much of their Afrezza plans as they can. It looks like they have a sound multi-year plan that will work to their benefit, and eventually to PWDs around the world, but it sure looks like they could care less if MNKD is still around to participate in that success. All that said, I'd still like to believe that Al and Matt didn't put themselves in such a bleak position, and they have some ace in the hole that will surprise everyone and have us shaking our heads saying, oh yeah that makes sense. OTOH, if things weren't bleak why wouldn't they try to create some positive vibes by putting out some information. I'm not buying the black out / quiet period talk. It seems stupid to perpetually place your company in a black out and/or quiet period. You can't be successful that way, and MNKD is proving the point. I'm still bullish, but it's in spite of the inept manner in which MNKD management has chosen in communicating with the outside world. It's hard to believe that being more transparent would make things worse. Even if being this silent is the best business decision, their silence has come at the expense of the shareholders who chose to move on. |
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Post by me on Dec 22, 2015 11:05:46 GMT -5
Wow, what are the conditions for you to turn bearish?! What's got me concerned is that we had information suggesting that many of the items in lakers post might have been resolved before Christmas. Now it seems that nothing will be settled for months to come. Maybe lots of activity within MNKD, but a scarcity of results. I wouldn't be troubled by much of it except that MNKD's been unwilling or unable to provide investors with clarity on its financial posture. Even with SNY getting more aggressive with its Afrezza marketing, that initiative will not be profitable for MNKD for most / all of 2016. If TS partnerships are problematic then MNKD's financial health becomes the major issue. I still suspect that MNKD has an answer to the financial situation, but it's absolutely infuriating to me that they hint of good things to come, deliver nothing, hide everything, and then provide further hints that maybe some things will become clearer in maybe another quarter. Whoever dreamed up the partnership agreement and CTO should be shot--Greenhill?. It's completely crippled MNKD and put an impossibly huge roadblock in front of investors who want to due their due diligence. It's hard for me to believe that Al and Matt can't say something. You'd think they'd at least put out a PR wishing investors happy holidays! I also believe that SNY is more than happy to take advantage of MNKD's situation by concealing as much of their Afrezza plans as they can. It looks like they have a sound multi-year plan that will work to their benefit, and eventually to PWDs around the world, but it sure looks like they could care less if MNKD is still around to participate in that success. All that said, I'd still like to believe that Al and Matt didn't put themselves in such a bleak position, and they have some ace in the hole that will surprise everyone and have us shaking our heads saying, oh yeah that makes sense. OTOH, if things weren't bleak why wouldn't they try to create some positive vibes by putting out some information. I'm not buying the black out / quiet period talk. It seems stupid to perpetually place your company in a black out and/or quiet period. You can't be successful that way, and MNKD is proving the point. I'm still bullish, but it's in spite of the inept manner in which MNKD management has chosen in communicating with the outside world. It's hard to believe that being more transparent would make things worse. Even if being this silent is the best business decision, their silence has come at the expense of the shareholders who chose to move on. , the point of my question was how can you hold the views you describe above and at the same time still remain bullish? You've explained succinctly why you have concerns and what those concerns are (and I appreciate that you did), but it is still a puzzle to me how, given your views, that you can still be bullish. I sense some cognitive dissonance, which isn't uncommon among investors who are upside down in their investments. I asked my question as I was hoping you would provide a rationale that countered, in your mind, the negative views that you hold (which I do not hold). GLTY and all longs! |
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Post by vissertrades on Dec 22, 2015 11:16:57 GMT -5
Most of us have been here soooo looong we are conditioned to believe. With little nugget statements by MANAGEMENT and the DD we've colectively dug up. Why wouldn't a diabetic choose this option IF it truly is what MANAGEMENT has told us it is? It comes down to excetution to a plan that is secret and that pisses ME off because it's MY money yet I want to believe...
Battered wife syndrome comes to mind, unfortunatly.
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Post by mssciguy on Dec 22, 2015 11:24:12 GMT -5
vissertrades or "Stockholm Syndrome" With this kind of manipulation happening on Wall Street, it's only a matter of time before equity in companies that you really like and support will be buyable and tradeable on alternate venues. The whole idea of options and boxed options and covered shorts or covered options lends itself to very organized and possibly corrupt forces. It's total bs (except for those making a living that way). Let's hope that Silicon Valley comes up with something. (Good example is paypal as an alternative to banking-- I use it all the time with money rarely touching my physical bank anymore. Why not with common stock?)
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Post by bill on Dec 22, 2015 12:49:07 GMT -5
me I hold conflicting views that make me bearish because there's too little evidence to substantiate my bullish analysis. My bullish attitude is now based on trust rather than evidence. What's most annoying is the persistent delays by MNKD in finding a way to become more transparent, or for them to even explain why they aren't or can't be transparent. I'm still trying to puzzle out why MNKD says they will likely become more transparent with a new CEO, but couldn't be more transparent with the current and prior ones. Anyone got an idea on that angle?
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