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Post by slugworth008 on Jan 2, 2016 8:15:53 GMT -5
OK...my guess is $29.45 as of December 31, 2016. Rational behind this?? Absolutely nothing. But I know it works and when a critical mass knows it works, this will set on fire. I was chatting with my husband, who was teasing me (ok a bit more than teasing) about this "loser" stock. Clearly the worst in our portfolio this year. While he is, as everyone know, as stong proponent of the product, he hates the sp and would like it gone from our investment portfolio. We were discussing the trials that SNY is doing in Germany with kids and how once you get people used to inhaling rather than injecting, they will never change. Of course, we can't wait for 4 year old kids to grow up with Afrezza, just too long to keep MNKD afloat. Then we began discussion our journey attempting to get the drug and our original doctor telling us that he would LOVE it if most of his diabetic patients had A1c as low as my husbands was before Afrezza: 7.8. Most of his patients had A1c in excess of 10! Why? Because they didn't want to go to needles and were postponing the inevitable with layers upon layers of oral drugs with all sorts of side effects OR they were as lazy as His Highness and the doc knew that he wouldn't do the calculations of his carbs and proteins before injecting an appropriate amount of insulin (and he is a numbers person to boot) and he wouldn't do additional pricking and testing to insure that his blood glucose did not go too low to prevent serious hypoglycemia problems. When he realized how BIG that Type 2 UNDERTREATED market was, the light bulb went on. He stopped bitching about my lousy investment. "We can wait" he said. Yup, if he gets it, just think what will happen when the doctors finally get it. Which brings me back to the subject of this topic. When they do get it, it will be like the hundred monkey theory. Everyone will get it at once. $29.45! If we get that, you all need to take me to dinner The type 2 market is under treated - reaching it effectively will be the trick - IMO. My take is a "real" marketing program/advertising blitz coupled with continued improvement in insurance coverage will drive scripts exponentially and create momentum for Afrezza in the diabetic community and amongst PA's, endos..ect..(because most of them will at least KNOW about Afrezza). So my random guess is 15+ by EOY.
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Post by kball on Jan 2, 2016 8:50:07 GMT -5
Well, my good friend Spiro says that if even 50% of the so called dots that we have been connecting exist, MNKD will be selling for at least $14.17. Spiro also told me that there were small dots and big dots, he said to keep an eye on the big dots in 2016. John here, Spiro is still sleeping 10 bagger from here in a year?? Remotest of possibilities. On the other hand, it would make it my largest holding.
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Post by spiro on Jan 2, 2016 8:57:21 GMT -5
Baba,
Because of recent undisclosed developments, Spiro has become addicted to stock chart technical analysis. MNKD is on the launch pad, the chart says it all.
Disclosure, Spiro does not have the slightest idea about how to read a chart, but that does not change the MNKD chart.
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Post by savzak on Jan 2, 2016 10:12:00 GMT -5
I just added 700 shares at 1.45, took an hour to fill the whole order..... On Dec 31, I put in a market order for 7000 shares in the late afternoon and it filled instantly for $1.44, which was right where it was trading when I placed the order. I generally don't use market orders, but have with MNKD recently, mainly in selling shares, I might add, and it's worked out fine. Hmm, during the same period I had a limit order at $1.44 for 5000 shares. It was placed about an hour before the close and remained open until the close. Only a little under a third got filled.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2016 10:24:53 GMT -5
Baba, Because of recent undisclosed developments, Spiro has become addicted to stock chart technical analysis. MNKD is on the launch pad, the chart says it all. Disclosure, Spiro does not have the slightest idea about how to read a chart, but that does not change the MNKD chart. Thats ok because Stock Charts are useless. As for a share price I wont bother to speculate. What I would like is some transparency and know we are moving in the right direction.
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Post by rvc on Jan 2, 2016 10:30:09 GMT -5
lets say the following happen 1. Q1 - tv adds for afrezza, script count starts to move up fast 2. Q1 - most insurance cover as tier 2 3. Q2 - EU approval and global launch 4. Q2 - improved label based on study results to indicate superiority over other insulin treatments 5. Q3 - publish results of initial childhood study, very positive results 6. Q3 - announce partnership and studies for pain meds on TS 7. Q4 - all milestone payments made and Afrezza turns profitable 8. Q4 - another partnership announced with studies for pulmonary treatment 9. Q4 -additional global approvals and launches 10. Q4 - total weekly script count passes 10,000 December 30, 2016 close price = $12.50 Duane DeSisto named CEO of the year :-)
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Post by rvc on Jan 2, 2016 10:33:51 GMT -5
IF your scenario turns out to be true, then the stock would be a lot higher than $12.50. Do I think 2 or 3 have any chance of happening? Maybe, and that's what I'm hoping for. Would love to see this get to about 5 bucks. That way I could get out with only a 50% loss, but that's probably wishful thinking.
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Post by beardawg on Jan 2, 2016 11:07:56 GMT -5
Why get out at $5 for a 50% loss when getting to $5 means it's going to go even higher? Going to $5 now means that things have changed and we are having sustained large increases in scripts.
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Post by jbe on Jan 2, 2016 13:16:01 GMT -5
Ok, I will be the negative one: Afrezza will survive, but MNKD will be bankrupt...
Sanofi will successfully drag their feet until MNKD runs out of money, and then exercise their rights of first refusal and buy Afrezza and MNKD patents.
At that point, Sanofi will aggressively price and market Afrezza.
We investors were lied to when told the price of Afrezza would be about the same as injectables, it is closer to double the cost, the average diabetic is already hard pressed to pay for management of their disease, paying the current price for Afrezza is not realistic.
At this point, I would prefer that MNKD walk from the Sanofi agreement asap and cut the price of Afrezza in half.
Afrezza is a superior product, halving the price would, I believe, increase the sales many times over, allowing the company we have invested in to possibly survive to develop and market Technosphere products.
The current trajectory predicts bankruptcy, Sanofi will get Afrezza for peanuts, diabetics will still be able to get daily nondiabetic numbers, MNKD management will probably walk away with more money than most of us will ever see in a lifetime, but MNKD investors will get screwed, which has pretty much occurred.
Sanofi is not our savior, when have they done or said anything for anyone to think otherwise?
MNKD's only chance is to get out asap and cut the price of Afrezza.
Sorry to be so depressing, but I have earned the right in much money lost.
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Post by silentknight on Jan 2, 2016 13:36:49 GMT -5
All I want for 2016 with MNKD is for them to communicate with shareholders, to lift the veil of secrecy by which they think they need to do business and give investors the information that they deserve, i.e...
(i) the marketing plan for Afrezza in 2016 and beyond. What is being done to improve sales? So far, neither SNY nor MNKD as given us anything other than attempting to address the spirometry issue. (ii) how does the company plan to survive past 2016 to avoid insolvency. Will they dilute? Will Al lend money? Provide clarity on how they will operate. (iii) if they feel that SNY isn't living up to their responsibilities in making all commercially reasonable efforts to make Afrezza a success (which I believe they haven't) make it known so that it isn't assumed that MNKD is content to watch their product fail.
Either way, the silence cannot continue. I'm hoping the new CEO can work on some of these, and I'm anxious to hear him speak. There is nowhere for the company and it's communications with the outside world to go but up. Until we see any progress or are told by MNKD that things are on the way to improving, I will remain suspect of SNY in their dedication to Afrezza. The last year and their lawsuit from Genzyme has convinced me that they cannot be trusted.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2016 17:54:03 GMT -5
Ok, I will be the negative one: Afrezza will survive, but MNKD will be bankrupt... Sanofi will successfully drag their feet until MNKD runs out of money, and then exercise their rights of first refusal and buy Afrezza and MNKD patents. At that point, Sanofi will aggressively price and market Afrezza. We investors were lied to when told the price of Afrezza would be about the same as injectables, it is closer to double the cost, the average diabetic is already hard pressed to pay for management of their disease, paying the current price for Afrezza is not realistic. At this point, I would prefer that MNKD walk from the Sanofi agreement asap and cut the price of Afrezza in half. Afrezza is a superior product, halving the price would, I believe, increase the sales many times over, allowing the company we have invested in to possibly survive to develop and market Technosphere products. The current trajectory predicts bankruptcy, Sanofi will get Afrezza for peanuts, diabetics will still be able to get daily nondiabetic numbers, MNKD management will probably walk away with more money than most of us will ever see in a lifetime, but MNKD investors will get screwed, which has pretty much occurred. Sanofi is not our savior, when have they done or said anything for anyone to think otherwise? MNKD's only chance is to get out asap and cut the price of Afrezza. Sorry to be so depressing, but I have earned the right in much money lost. First off. You dont lose until you SELL! And, if you got into MNKD last year or even before that you should be accustomed to MAJOR ups and downs. Lastly, NO WAY we go bankrupt! Sanofi was interested in Afrezza years before FDA approval. What has changed? Yes, uptick is slow, YES very slow, but why such negativity? I feel positive. Why? 1. The gap to funding is relatively easy. As such, if money were so tight why the continued exploration of other API's? Why not just put ALL focus on Afrezza. Firing all non essential employees, lessening cash burn and increasing awareness OF Afrezza. This would seem like the right way if cash was such a problem. 2. The real "uptick" in RXs has yet to occur. We are all waiting. When SYN does decide to go guns blazing I think we see massive upside. Thus this conversation becomes null. 3. SYN diabetes space is under massive pressure. Lantus generics have started to get approval, SYN has lost their money maker, they need something to compensate; Afrezza! I am talking about $8b a year! How does this void get filled, the world's only FDA approved inhalable insulin. It's all so clear. 4. If my predictions are bunk and SYN feels MNKD product is unmarketable, then we go in alone or with another who is hungrier and will to give Afrezza the attention it deserves. But I honestly dont believe #4 will come to fruitition; Afrezza is the future of diabetic care!
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Post by bioexec25 on Jan 2, 2016 18:03:49 GMT -5
George / Jbe, Thanks for an example of Mannkind Ying Yang. Appreciate both but relate more to George. Sometimes feels like the line from Rocky when he is seeing triple, the trainer says hit the one in the middle.
Btw, what is your answer to the thread question? :-))
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Post by tayl5 on Jan 2, 2016 18:18:25 GMT -5
From the collection of quotes that headline this board: "Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge." -Lao Tzu
Here's another one for the collection: "It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong." -Voltaire
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Post by rvc on Jan 2, 2016 20:14:35 GMT -5
my premise for getting into this stock was that Afrezza would be a blockbuster. I have since come to the realization that it will be a niche drug. I also failed to take into account the dilution that this company has and will have to have in the future in order to survive. At 5 bucks, the market cap will be about 2.5 billion and if it gets to that point, I could see another secondary. As for TS applications, I have lost all hope that any deal of significance is forthcoming. When the CEO begs for potential partner to call him during a cc, it's not really a good sign.
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Post by mnkdmorelong on Jan 2, 2016 21:07:51 GMT -5
my premise for getting into this stock was that Afrezza would be a blockbuster. I have since come to the realization that it will be a niche drug. I also failed to take into account the dilution that this company has and will have to have in the future in order to survive. At 5 bucks, the market cap will be about 2.5 billion and if it gets to that point, I could see another secondary. As for TS applications, I have lost all hope that any deal of significance is forthcoming. When the CEO begs for potential partner to call him during a cc, it's not really a good sign. There have been many "tells' that forewarned of problems with Mankind. You cited Hakam's solicitation for candidate APIs for TS. This means the TS deals they were working on at that timer were shaky. How about the DTC (consumer magazines) during this summer? No change in NRx! This to me is amazing. All those dollars yielded nothing. And how about Matt's attempt to roll the 2016 convertible debt forward? Most of the bondholders wanted cash. They wanted out. And I think the SNY deal was a tell. MNKD only receive 35% of the profits net of shared expenses. The share price sold off from $10 to $6. Was this the best deal MNKD could get? Another tell that most people did not see was at the AdCom in April 2014. One of the committee members who represented the industry was a chap from NVO. He did not say one word during the entire meeting. Nothing positive, nothing negative. It seemed to me that if NVO had an interest in Afrezza, he would have talked it up. As it turned out, NVO did not license Afrezza.
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